The PGA Tour stays in Florida this week, as the build up to the first major of the year intensifies.

After what seemed the longest weekend ever in golf, the usually excellent Valspar Championship potentially could take a hit in the way of player fatigue, so it’s a week to tread carefully on the betting front.

Alongside Matt Vincenzi’s outright article, here are the best bets for a tournament that has become a lot tougher to read than usual.

Jason Kokrak Top 10 finish +360

Whilst many of this week’s shorter-priced players have obvious claims, the likes of Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland and defending champion Sam Burns were all embroiled in the tough weekend at Sawgrass, and a ‘hangover’ is not out of the question.

Kokrak, however, was never nearer than 44th at any close of play and will have suffered much less stress as he lobbed round in his own time. That looks perfect for a tilt at an event at which he has five top-15 finishes from seven starts, including a run over the last few years of 13/2/8.

Copperhead has an unusual take on a par-71 with five par-3s and still four par-5s, something Kokrak exploits to wonderful effect, ranking first on tour for par-3 scoring average and 20th for the longer holes.

Hands up – his form since the return in Hawaii has been moderate with just one top-20 and a couple of top-30 finishes, but his record shows he doesn’t have to be in flying form to succeed here.

Back when runner-up in 2019, the 36-year-old came into the event off the back of a T47 at Sawgrass to put up some consistent figures through all the vital stats, whilst last season he bombed at the Match Play before a 42nd at Augusta and then finishing 13th here, his worst position of the week.

Take it back further. Midfield finishes preceded the 8th place finish in 2018, whilst his third win on tour at the Houston Open was hard to envisage after a T54 at the CJ Cup and a missed-cut in Las Vegas.

Adam Hadwin Top 10 finish +700

The Canadian returns to the scene of his sole PGA Tour victory after a career-best 9th at Sawgrass and looks set to continue his decent form at Copperhead.

Unlike Kokrak, the 34-year-old seems to need to be in a touch of form when arriving here, his 2017 victory coming after five successful cuts that included a runner-up at the Career Builder and 12th in Pheonix, while when defending his title, he came off a T3 at La Quinta, T6 at Riviera and T9 at Pheonix before finishing 12th.

Two missed cuts in succession around here look poor, but both came off recent weekends off – in 2019, he had also missed the cut at The Players, whilst last season saw Valspar as the centre of three successive weekends off.

Hadwin repeats form and has done so at the aforementioned Career Builder, the Shriners and the Canadian Open, and now back in form can add a top-10 to his Copperhead resume.

Keegan Bradley to beat Brian Harman -134

This looks like a match-up to get stuck in to.

The diminutive Harman comes here after four successive missed-cuts at Copperhead and, whilst he has a semblance of recent form, only a third place at the American Express and 14th at Pheonix are highlights of a six- tournament run that includes two missed cuts and a 63rd place last week at Sawgrass.

In the blue corner, Bradley comes here after making every one of his six cuts this year, including 12th at the Sony, 11th at Bay Hill and fifth last week at The Players, a finish that should have been better bar a two-shot penalty and a double-bogey six at his final hole.

Last season, Sam Burns needed to play at his very best to conquer the 35-year-old after ranking second for tee-to-green, and he hasn’t let that quality slip, ranking 11th for that stats through 2022 overall.

In contrast, the short-hitting Harman has lost strokes from tee-to-green on two occasions this year, at the Sony and last week at Sawgrass – neither giving much hope to backers should the Florida weather retain its bite.