Opinion & Analysis
2022 Steyn City Championship: Outright Betting Tips
A week after the relatively unknown Pecanwood held the MyGolfLife Open, the DP World Tour throws us a further curveball with the Steyn City Championship being held at a course with even less ‘previous’.
Events such as The Players and this week’s Valspar have their ‘type’ pretty much set in stone, and therefore the list of potential bets will be similar in many notebooks. However, the last two weeks in South Africa have asked a question of golf punters and, here, at The Club, finding a legitimate hook on which to hang your coat takes a bit of work.
The Club has more in common with last week’s test than just being in the same country.
Another Jack Nicklaus design, another at around 7700 yards, and another that has seen previous winners at better than 20-under, look for similar types, although previous back-to-back events on the tour have seen surprising reversals from one week to the next.
Much of this week’s form-lines revolve around JC Ritchie, winner of the Steyn City Team Championship in 2018, alongside Jaco Pinsloo.
Whilst that is nothing more than a hint, Ritchie is one of the most in-form home players of the past couple of months and worthy of looking into a touch more deeply.
The 28-year-old has ten victories at this level, including wins or high placings at the Dimension Data, Opens at Joburg and Cape Town, and two victories at the Limpopo Championship, an event that points to a couple of players here.
The only time that Ritchie did not win the Modimole event, there was a play-off between four players – eventual winner Brandon Stone and joint-runners-up, Bekker, Danie Van Tonder and Hennie Du Plessis, whilst Prinsloo was tied-11th.
Taking a dive further, one of Ritchie’s best pieces of form outside of his home country is in Spain, at the Challenge Tour finale, where he finished 7th, one shot ahead of Bekker in a country that dominated last week’s final round.
Whilst he won twice in February, the feeling is that Juan Carlo may well be feeling the effects of playing for six weeks in a row, and with the invites now coming in, and Limpopo a possible in a couple of weeks, this may not be the week he is at his best.
So, back his form up first with a couple in that form line.
Oliver Bekker +3500
Oliver Bekker Top-10 finish +320
Whilst the Sunshine Tour is large in numbers, potential winners number much less, and the 37-year-old looks one of the more obvious ones just outside the very top of the market.
There is little hidden in his form figures, but, as suggested above, that runner-up to Daniel Van Tonder last year at the SA Open could be far more significant than at face value. Whilst two ninth-place finishes in consecutive tournaments at Ras al Khaimah show the consistency that was lacking even with the likes of Nicolai Hojgaard, winner of the first and home for the weekend at the next.
The latter of those top-10 finishes came after finding himself 104th after the first round (and amazingly second after day two), and he showed he was still very much up for the challenge when overcoming another slow start in Kenya to storm through from 65th to 8th place by Sunday night.
Once again, he was nearest at the finish last week when 11th, making that seven top-11 finishes since September and his 18th top-15 in 32 starts since the restart in May 2021.
Sunshine Tour events tend to be won by players in form and who are comfortable with the television coverage when it counts. Bekker is one of those, and the price is very fair.
Matthieu Pavon + 3500
We are with the Frenchman again this week after he made his seventh cut in a row at Pecanwood last week, where only a third-round 73 stopped his fourth top-10 in six starts, his first-round over 72 in seven completed tournaments.
As said last week, ‘there is nothing complicated about the selection, and it’s simply that the Frenchman continues to impress at all types of track, with a game that maybe sometimes falls through lack of experience.’
That inexperience will soon be a thing of the past, and he certainly seems to be telegraphing a victory just four months after a runner-up finish in Portugal and six weeks after a closing 3rd at Ras al Khaimah.
Last week’s play-off also-rans Adri Arnaus and Jordan Smith are half the price of the 29-year-old, yet have had a few more chances in the mix; he’s just proven himself at this type of course and won’t mind any wind or rain.
I’ll stick with Pavon in this grade for a while yet.
Hennie Du Plessis +7500
Hennie Du Plessis Top-10 finish +650
Hennie Du Plessis Top-20 finish +280
Away from the form links mentioned above, the locally born 25-year-old bounced back to form at Pecanwood, leading the event for three days before a lack of final day birdies saw him drop three shots off the eventual winner.
However, that return to a level similar to the third at the SA Open tees him up nicely for a tilt at an individual title around a course he knows well.
Just before that bronze medal, Du Plessis was in contention at the Joburg Open when the event was curtailed after bad weather, but even so, the form looks relevant.
Thriston Lawrence, 9th and 2nd last two starts was called the winner from Zander Lombard, the course record-holder at The Club, whilst Ritchie was just a shot behind in 8th.
Being long off the tee is of no disadvantage on a forgiving home course, and with the Spaniards doing well last week, his 5th in Costa Brava may well have some pull, whilst a T4 at the Big Green German Challenge came behind three Spaniards, split only by Lukas Nemcez – it all feels like a familiar theme.
Santiago Tarrio +8000
Santiago Tarrio Top-10 finish +650
Santiago Tarrio Top-20 finish +280
Both Francesco Laporta and Julien Brun, who have the potential to be a grade higher than this lot, tempted me, but ultimately I wanted to see a bit more. As befits all the above, Van Tonder holds great claims at his best, something he looks a tad short of, so I’ll take the chance that a Spanish win inspires another.
Tarrio isn’t particularly young at 31 years of age but has plenty of improvement left, having been a professional for only six years.
A couple of wins at Alps Tour level saw him graduate onto the Challenge Tour, where highlights include a 4th at the Dimension Data, just behind Christiaan Bezuidenhout and George Coetzee, and a runner-up at the Grand Finale in Mallorca.
2021 was the real breakthrough year with wins at the Czech Challenge and Challenge de Espana, sandwiched by a third in Cadiz. Further notable results include third place at the Hero Open, running-up at the afore-mentioned German Challenge, and 12th at the finale.
Latest form doesn’t leap out of the page being steady rather than spectacular, but he’s ranked 6th for greens-in-regulation the last twice, and the suspicion is that it’s the putter that is letting him down more than the rest of his game.
I wanted to be with a Spaniard, and this may well be the wrong one, but it was only a few months ago that Tarrio was competing healthily in this grade, and it won’t be eight months before he does so again.
Opinion & Analysis
AVL: My U.S. Amateur local qualifying experience
This past Monday, I played in the U.S. Amateur local qualifier at Rock Creek Country Club in Portland, Oregon. A full tee sheet from 7:30 a.m. to 1:55 p.m., the top 11 scores would make it to the U.S. Amateur final qualifying.
I teed off at 10:48 a.m.. With the 7:30 am tee time, you can get a feel for the leaders’ pace, and they were off and running on the challenging setup at Rock Creek.
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Getting to the highlight of the round on the par five 17th, a drive up the left side and 212 yards left to the front hole location. I took out a 5-iron with plans of middle of the green. The ball ended up 8 feet left of the hole, pin high. A slight downhill putt dropped in for an eagle 3 on the 17th. With the cut line looking to be anywhere from -2 to even par. This was the boost I had been waiting for all day.
With making par from the trees on 18, it was time to wait for a potential playoff with a posted score of one under par 71.
Three hours later, it was playoff time. 8 players for 6 spots. I made par on the playoff hole, which was good enough to advance to the U.S. Amateur final qualifying in July. USGA qualifiers sure deliver on all of the emotions in golf!
Club Junkie
Building my 2026 gamer WITB: Ranking the contenders and new putter projects – Club Junkie Podcast
The annual What’s In The Bag build is underway, and on this episode of Club Junkie, Brian breaks down the clubs currently leading the race for a spot in his 2026 gamer setup. From drivers and fairway woods to irons, wedges, and shafts, he ranks the equipment that’s performing best and explains what’s separating the front runners from the rest of the field.
Brian also heads into the workshop to discuss several putter projects currently on the bench. From head options and shaft choices to build ideas and testing plans, he shares what he’s working on and which putters could become serious contenders for the bag this season.
If you’re a gear junkie who loves equipment testing, club building, and the never-ending pursuit of the perfect setup, this episode is for you.
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Club Junkie
Tour Edge Exotics mini driver review + TaylorMade Spider ZT Max first look – Club Junkie
On this episode of Club Junkie, I put the new Tour Edge Exotics Mini Driver to the test and break down the performance, forgiveness, distance, and where it fits compared to a traditional driver or strong fairway wood. If you have been curious about adding a mini driver to the bag, this one is worth a look.
I also dive into the new TaylorMade Spider ZT Max putter that was recently spotted and discuss the growing zero torque putter trend. Plus, there is a closer look at the new Project X Titan Yellow shaft showing up on the PGA Tour and what makes it different from other profiles currently out there.
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