Back to Al Hamra again this week, as the course covers for the cancelled Indian Masters.

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Visitors to the course over the last month have reported that there isn’t that much that organisers can do with the course in order to make it much different to last week’s test and the result should tell the same story.

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As well as ranking top-two off the tee last week, both the overall top pair, Nicolai Hojgaard and Jordan Smith, brought the expected form from the Alfred Dunhill Links and Portugal to the fore, and thus brought in links to the Scottish Open and Qatar. Alongside them in the final top-10 were seven players ranked in the top-10 for tee-to-green, either courtesy of the driver or some exceptional approach play.

Get it done somehow, but get it done in regulation. That’s the only way of putting up a winning score, expected to be around 20-under. As the great David Byrne sang, ‘same as it ever was.’

Here are my best bets for the outright market.

Haotong Li – Win/Top 10 +3500/+340

Full respect to both the front two who must have every chance of finishing in the top echelons again, but if there is one player in the top-20 of the betting that could be too classy for all of them, it’s the conqueror of Rory McIlroy at the 2018 Dubai Desert Classic.

Halfway leader at the PGA at Harding Park, the man from Hunan has never been the most consistent of prospects but, when he clicks, he is perfectly capable of once again justifying his previous position well inside the world top-75, as he did for three seasons from 2017 to 2019.

There is no point in going over older records with Li, although top five finishes in Sicily and at the Alfred Dunhill Links are significant here, so concentrate on what he is doing right now, and after a closing third last week, I expect him to ride the wave and kick on again.

With a view to his best three main-tour finishes since October, the bronze medalist from the Open Championship at Birkdale has been 14th at the Alfred Dunhill Links (second for approaches and tee-to-green), 12th at the Sony Open (19th and 17th respectively) and third last week around here when leading the approach stats, resulting to a ranking of fourth for tee-to-green.

Having been well out of form or injured for almost all of 2021, he bounced back with a runner-up at his home Tour Championship in December before this recent run of results that have surely given him the confidence he can again compete at the top.

Li repeats at the same courses. Witness a fourth and fifth at the Nedbank, win and fourth at his home Open, two runner-up finishes in Turkey, and similar finishes just outside the top placings and expect him to do the same at Al Hamra.

Matthieu Pavon – Win/Top-10 +6000/+450

29-year-old Pavon hasn’t won outside of the Alps Tour, or indeed anywhere since 2015, but surely his turn is coming after a very encouraging 2021 and a terrific start to the new season.

In 2021, the Frenchman’s best results included a top-10 at Gran Canaria, but that pales into insignificance for this course when seeing the 12th at the Links at St. Andrews and runner-up in Portugal, just behind Thomas Pieters, having led into payday with a brace of low rounds (64/65).

On both occasions, Pavon struck the ball beautifully from tee to green and will surely learn from his experience at Dom Pedro, when a treble-bogey eight at the par-five 12th hole let in a host of players.

What impressed was the way he shook that off to land the ball close to the following par-three to make birdie, and again he was to recover a dropped shot at the 14th with a birdie three. Given the circumstances and the pressure, those snippets of recovery rather than a full-on collapse were eye-catching and, after a couple of months’ break, he has re-appeared to tie with the afore-mentioned Li last weekend.

16th off-the-tee, seventh in approach and fifth tee-to-green (in first place after three rounds) are all ingredients that suit here, and they are part of an extended run of good ball-striking that hopefully continues here.

There are plenty of these links specialists that appeal, but none stand out in the outright market.

Nods go to Ross Fisher and Oliver Wilson as part of the ‘old guard’ that could land top finishes at a course like this should the wind arrive.

Should the gusts get up a tad and make this more of a Scottish Open/ coastal test, watch out for Fisher over the weekend for in-running bets.

If conditions allow, he is long and low off the tee and improved his greens-in-regulation stats last week to lie seventh after three rounds and second after the final 18, all figures that will help as the event rolls on.

Wilson’s only victory on the European Tour was a defeat of Rory McIlroy at the 2014 Dunhill Links (here we go again, sorry), but it would be harder to find someone that works harder at their game.

Very active on social media, the 41-year-old continues to be positive about his game and whilst results aren’t quite showing that he remains confident that good things are coming, a point he raises to my @LostForeWords podcast anchorman, Tom Jacobs with regularity.

Consecutive finishes in the top dozen in Mallorca and Portugal read nicely, whilst his first outing for a couple of months saw him continue that good tee-to-green game with a ranking just outside the top-20 despite feeling jet-lagged during the opening round.

It is speculative, but there is something there, and it will show at some point.

At around +700 and +1400 for top-10 finishes and +350 and +600 for a top-20, both are worth a look even if not advised as a play unless the weather turns.