The PGA Tour makes its return this week with the Sentry Tournament of Champions at the Kapalua Plantation Course in Maui. Kapalua is a unique par 73 measuring 7,515 yards, featuring four par 5s but only three par 3s.

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The Tournament of Champions is a no-cut — and usually very low-scoring — affair, with the only exception being the 2020 edition which played more difficult due to wind. Wide fairways and soft greens typically make the event quite score-able, with coastal wind and elevation changes being the courses only real defenses.

Per usual, every winner from the previous season is invited to participate in the Sentry Tournament of Champions. As a result, we will give us an excellent field this year with so many elite players in 2021 emerging victorious. As a result, the tournament boasts a relatively large field with 39 golfers scheduled to tee it up.

Predictably, the field is absolutely loaded with most of the top golfers in the world. The only player who qualified but will not play is Rory McIlroy.

2022 Sentry Tournament of Champions Outright Betting Selections

While it may be likely that one of the golfers at the top of the odds board win this week, I don’t see much value in trying to identify which one it will be with odds being so short.

Making outright selections The Sentry Tournament of Champions is tricky. There are some golfers looking to finish up their vacation prior to the 2022 season, some who are there strictly to win, and others who fall somewhere in between.

Therefore, my strategy this week will be looking to start at the +2000 and beyond range and keep the exposure limited as we get our feet wet in 2022.

Hideki Matsuyama (+2200) (DraftKings):

Hideki Matsuyama feels like a great place to start in terms of value this week. There are ten golfers ahead of him on the odds board, which doesn’t reflect his win equity. Having won twice last year, including a major championship, ‘Deki has answered the question that is often asked, “he’s a great player, but can he actually win?”. If 2021 was a sign of things to come, I could see a few more victories in 2022 for the Japanese star.

Known for his work ethic, Matsuyama is one of the golfers in the field who I would wager put his off time to good use. The appearance this week is likely an “all business” trip with the 28-year-old looking to continue his momentum from his best season to date.

With the exception of last year’s appearance (41st), Matsuyama has excellent course history at Kapalua. His previous three trips to the course resulted in three top-five finishes: 3rd in 2015, 2nd in 2017, and 4th in 2018. It is undeniable that ‘Deki loves this place, and last year’s anomaly should be attributed to his abysmal putting display, where he lost 9.7 strokes on the field.

Matsuyama rates out as an excellent value for Kapalua and has the confidence to begin his 2022 with a bang.

Billy Horschel (+7000) (DraftKings):

Another golfer who seems mispriced based on his actual win equity is Billy Horschel. Coming off of a season where Billy won a World Golf Championship and the BMW PGA at Wentworth, he is priced at longer odds than a large group of players that simply do not have a better chance to win than him.

Two of “Bermuda Billy’s” biggest strengths are putting on Bermuda and the ability to flip a wedge or short iron from 125 yards and in. Horschel ranks 10th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting on slow Bermuda, and 10th in proximity from 100-125 yards. Shorter hitters have fared well at this event, including last year’s champion Harris English. He’s played the event five times and has a 6th (2014) and an 11th (2018) scattered among three mediocre results.

Two of Horschel’s wins on TOUR have come at -20 or better, so there is no reason he can’t compete when the event inevitably turns into a birdie fest.

Phil Mickelson (+15000) (DraftKings):

Is Phil Mickelson likely to win the Sentry Tournament of Champions? No, probably not. However, his odds aren’t reflective of his actual chances of winning. In a field of 39, on a course that plays relatively easy for the best in the world, Mickelson can still compete.

We saw last season that when Phil has his best game, he can beat the best in the world. Of course, at 51-years-old those performances have grown fewer and farther between. Playing at a resort style course in a no-cut event should give him a larger chance than usual to have one of his better weeks. Kapalua is a course where Phil can get away with spraying it off of the tee here and there, as a handful of past champions have had a reputation for being inaccurate with the driver. Mickelson is still pretty good with a wedge and should be able to keep pace if he can keep the big numbers off of the scorecard.

At triple digit odds, it’s worth sprinkling a few bucks on Phil to capture some magic in Hawaii.