It’s ToC week at the Plantation Course this week at Maui, and wide fairways, huge greens, good putting and low scoring will be the result unless some unforecast severe wind arrives.

Players have had a month off from competitive action, so there is a chance we will see a repeat ‘shock’ winner as we did last year when Harris English putted his way to a playoff victory, but eventual winners tend to be in the top-10 of the betting market, and Matt Vincenzi has covered the outright bets here.

With a limited field of recent winners, there are rarely big priced specials to take advantage of, especially as history dictates that players thrive after their initial course/event outing.

Indeed, Tiger Woods took a 5th on debut before winning in 2000, whilst every champion from Steve Stricker in 2012 onwards improved on their first, second, or even sixth piece of Kapalua form.

Using that, here’s the best of this week’s props. 

Jason Kokrak – Top 5/Top 10 – +500/+200

36-year-old Kokrak has been a late bloomer, known in the past for top-10 finishes but never as a winner, but after three official victories in 13 months (four including a pairs event), has now risen from outside of the top-100 to be a top-20 player.

Whilst his end-of-year double (Houston Open/QBE Shootout) is perhaps of lesser value than that of Viktor Hovland’s, both his wins were on Bermuda greens where he beat tournament favorite and Bermuda specialist Sam Burns, a player who trades at half Kokrak’s price despite the selection having had a course outing.

That 35th on debut was nothing to shout about, but, as discussed above, many future winners come on bundles from their initial outing. Long off the tee, he sits comfortably inside the top-50 on tour for approaches over the last season-and-a-bit (top-10 in this week’s field) and top-10 overall for strokes-gained-putting (in first place over the last 12 weeks). Go old-fashioned, and Kokrak sits inside the top-30 on tour for putting average, sixth for par-3’s (the toughest holes on this week’s track) and around 15th for the par-fives.

Translate that to a no-cut, shortened field, and a repeat of his first win at Shadow Creek is certainly no pipe-dream.

Marc Leishman – Top 5/Top 10 – +400/+170 (DraftKings)

The well-travelled Aussie may not have the all-round game to win the gold medal unless the wind blows enough to affect those at the top, but with four course outings under his belt and a game in pretty suitable form when we last saw him, he can land a place on the front page.

Winning the Travelers at River Highlands puts him alongside English, Dustin Johnson and Jordan Spieth, all winners at Maui, whilst three top-10s at The Masters gives credence to Spieth’s comment that the slopes on the greens at both Augusta and the Plantation course have similar problems to conquer.

As for the 2021 season, the tied-fifth at The Masters preceded an off-the-card win at the pairs event, the Zurich Classic, where he and compatriot Cameron Smith beat South African veterans Louis Oosthuizen and Charl Schwartzel, whist another top-five at River Highlands again showed how Leishman repeats form at the same tracks year-in-year-out.

In four outings since the 2021 playoffs, the 38-year-old has finished a fast-finishing fourth at Silverado, whilst another flying finish saw him record a place better at the Shriners Children’s Open behind Sungjae Im, a strong fancy for many this week. The CJ Cup was one of ‘those’ but for an eye-catching closing 64 whilst he led the field after a day one 65 in Houston before finishing inside the top 20.

Two recent top-four finishes at the Sony Open further illustrate how well he plays on the island, and he can put up a solid show this week in preparation for another tilt at Waialae.

Marc Leishman to beat Talor Gooch, Harris English and Brooks Koepka – +275 (DraftKings) 

With group bets, the key is finding weak links and players that can be red-lined immediately.

With Leishman in the plan already, look for weaknesses amongst his opposition and in both the last quoted, there are genuine reasons to think they might struggle this week.

The case against Koepka is pretty clear. Sure, he has that third place on debut here in 2016, but a final round 71 meant he actually got beaten by nine shots, whilst he has only broken 70 once in eight rounds since. Indeed, through 2017 and 2018, when winning five events including three Majors, he recorded rounds at Plantation of 78 twice, 76, 75, 74 and 73.

Koepka turns up at events that matter most, whether it be ‘those’ four or at grudge television matches, and although a ninth-place finish at the recent Hero World Challenge was a boost after a period of poor results, he had every chance of winning until blowing up with a final round 74. With fitness always a doubt, this doesn’t look like the week to be with Brooks.

Defending champ, English, putted his way to the title last year after an approach game that would have seen him rank top five, at best, in previous years. However, since losing his trusty old putter grip after the Ryder Cup, the five-time winner has had a rough time, with a pair of missed-cuts sandwiching a withdrawal from the CJ Cup with a back injury.

The last time we saw English was a tied 14th at the 20-runner Hero, a result that was helped by a third-round 63, a rare beast in the Bulldog’s recent record.

Whilst he’s had time to recover from the ailments, the flat stick will prove a major part of this week’s winning armoury and, until that prowess returns, I easily passed him over.

The case against Gooch is harder to make given an improving profile that has seen him rise to 33rd in the world rankings after a win at the RSM Classic.

However, despite some excellent recent results, including a pair of top-five finishes at Sawgrass and Silverado, neither of those was on debut, and he will need to buck trends to improve that this week.

Plenty of recent winners at Maui have finished mid-division on their first run – Patrick Reed was 16th, Justin Thomas 21st, Xander Schauffele 22nd – and supporters of the Oklahoma Sooners should be happy with anything approaching that, in readiness for the season proper.