Opinion & Analysis
Sentry Tournament of Champions: Best DraftKings picks from each price range
The PGA Tour makes its return this week with the Sentry Tournament of Champions at the Kapalua Plantation Course in Maui. Kapalua is a unique par 73 measuring 7,515 yards, featuring four par 5s but only three par 3s.
The Tournament of Champions is a no-cut — and usually very low-scoring — affair, with the only exception being the 2020 edition which played more difficult due to wind. Wide fairways and soft greens typically make the event quite score-able, with coastal wind and elevation changes being the courses only real defenses.
Per usual, every winner from the previous season is invited to participate in the Sentry Tournament of Champions. As a result, we will give us an excellent field this year with so many elite players in 2021 emerging victorious. As a result, the tournament boasts a relatively large field with 39 golfers scheduled to tee it up.
Predictably, the field is absolutely loaded with most of the top golfers in the world. The only player who qualified but will not play is Rory McIlroy.
Let’s take a look at each DraftKings price range and identify the best plays for each in GPP’s.
10,000+
Bryson DeChambeau $10,200
Although many will opt for Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, or Collin Morikawa this week, I will be starting my DFS lineups with Bryson DeChambeau this week.
With back to back 7th place finishes in his two most recent starts at Kapalua, DeChambeau has shown he is starting to get a feel for the course. Ranking 1st in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and Strokes Gained: Par 5 in his past 24 rounds, he should be able to capitalize on the unique layout which features five par 5’s.
Motivations are a bit of an unknown for most of the players in the field this week, but it’s safe to assume that DeChambeau has been grinding in the off-season.
9,000+
Xander Schauffele $9,500:
Schauffele seems to be a bit underpriced this week at $9,500. His course history at Kapalua is excellent to say the least. After winning the event in 2019, Xander followed the victory up with a 2nd place finish in 2020 and finished 5th last year. The 7th highest priced golfer in DraftKings pricing realistically has the 2nd or 3rd highest probability of winning the event. With large greens at Kapalua, approach play will be a determining factor, and Schauffele ranks 3rd in the field in that category in his past 24 rounds.
8,000+
Hideki Matsuyama $8,700:
Hideki Matsuyama feels like a great place to start in terms of value this week and is my pick to win the event. There are nine golfers ahead of him in the DraftKings pricing, which doesn’t reflect his win equity. Having won twice last year, including a major championship, ‘Deki has answered the question that is often asked, “he’s a great player, but can he actually win?”. If 2021 was a sign of things to come, I could see a few more victories in 2022 for the Japanese star.
Known for his work ethic, Matsuyama is one of the golfers in the field who I would wager put his off time to good use. The appearance this week is likely an “all business” trip with the 28-year-old looking to continue his momentum from his best season to date.
With the exception of last year’s appearance (41st), Matsuyama has excellent course history at Kapalua. His previous three trips to the course resulted in three top-five finishes: 3rd in 2015, 2nd in 2017, and 4th in 2018. It is undeniable that ‘Deki loves this place, and last year’s anomaly should be attributed to his abysmal putting display, where he lost 9.7 strokes on the field.
7,000+
Billy Horschel $7,000:
Coming off of a season where Billy won a World Golf Championship and the BMW PGA at Wentworth, Billy seems to be underpriced in this field at 7K flat.
Two of “Bermuda Billy’s” biggest strengths are putting on Bermuda and the ability to flip a wedge or short iron from 125 yards and in. Horschel ranks 10th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting on slow Bermuda, and 10th in proximity from 100-125 yards. Shorter hitters have fared well at this event, including last year’s champion Harris English. He’s played the event five times and has a 6th (2014) and an 11th (2018) scattered among three mediocre results.
Two of Horschel’s wins on TOUR have come at -20 or better, so there is no reason he can’t compete when the event inevitably turns into a birdie fest.
6,000+
Phil Mickelson $6,500:
Is Phil Mickelson likely to win the Sentry Tournament of Champions? No, probably not. However, in a field of 39, on a course that plays relatively easy for the best in the world, Mickelson can still compete.
We saw last season that when Phil has his best game, he can beat the best in the world. Of course, at 51-years-old those performances have grown fewer and farther between. Playing at a resort style course in a no-cut event should give him a larger chance than usual to have one of his better weeks. Kapalua is a course where Phil can get away with spraying it off of the tee here and there, as a handful of past champions have had a reputation for being inaccurate with the driver. Mickelson is still pretty good with a wedge and should be able to make plenty of birdies and DFS players can play him without worrying about not getting four rounds out of him.
Opinion & Analysis
AVL: My U.S. Amateur local qualifying experience
This past Monday, I played in the U.S. Amateur local qualifier at Rock Creek Country Club in Portland, Oregon. A full tee sheet from 7:30 a.m. to 1:55 p.m., the top 11 scores would make it to the U.S. Amateur final qualifying.
I teed off at 10:48 a.m.. With the 7:30 am tee time, you can get a feel for the leaders’ pace, and they were off and running on the challenging setup at Rock Creek.
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Getting to the highlight of the round on the par five 17th, a drive up the left side and 212 yards left to the front hole location. I took out a 5-iron with plans of middle of the green. The ball ended up 8 feet left of the hole, pin high. A slight downhill putt dropped in for an eagle 3 on the 17th. With the cut line looking to be anywhere from -2 to even par. This was the boost I had been waiting for all day.
With making par from the trees on 18, it was time to wait for a potential playoff with a posted score of one under par 71.
Three hours later, it was playoff time. 8 players for 6 spots. I made par on the playoff hole, which was good enough to advance to the U.S. Amateur final qualifying in July. USGA qualifiers sure deliver on all of the emotions in golf!
Club Junkie
Building my 2026 gamer WITB: Ranking the contenders and new putter projects – Club Junkie Podcast
The annual What’s In The Bag build is underway, and on this episode of Club Junkie, Brian breaks down the clubs currently leading the race for a spot in his 2026 gamer setup. From drivers and fairway woods to irons, wedges, and shafts, he ranks the equipment that’s performing best and explains what’s separating the front runners from the rest of the field.
Brian also heads into the workshop to discuss several putter projects currently on the bench. From head options and shaft choices to build ideas and testing plans, he shares what he’s working on and which putters could become serious contenders for the bag this season.
If you’re a gear junkie who loves equipment testing, club building, and the never-ending pursuit of the perfect setup, this episode is for you.
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Club Junkie
Tour Edge Exotics mini driver review + TaylorMade Spider ZT Max first look – Club Junkie
On this episode of Club Junkie, I put the new Tour Edge Exotics Mini Driver to the test and break down the performance, forgiveness, distance, and where it fits compared to a traditional driver or strong fairway wood. If you have been curious about adding a mini driver to the bag, this one is worth a look.
I also dive into the new TaylorMade Spider ZT Max putter that was recently spotted and discuss the growing zero torque putter trend. Plus, there is a closer look at the new Project X Titan Yellow shaft showing up on the PGA Tour and what makes it different from other profiles currently out there.
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Antonio Brown
Jan 5, 2022 at 4:55 pm
Gambling is for losers.