Opinion & Analysis

Want to go lower? The stats say you need an earlier tee time

Published

12 years ago

Aug 25, 2014

Recently, I was researching data for some of my PGA Tour clients on tee times (late vs. early) and scoring average. Is there a correlation, I wondered. I assumed there was, and knew that the results would be applicable to golfers of all handicap levels. Everyone could use these findings to help them refine their on-course and practice strategies and improve their scores.

The PGA Tour defines an “early round” as any round where the player tees off in the first half of the set of tee times for that day, and one of the clear results was that a player’s average score is typically better in early rounds than later rounds.

For the last five seasons, the early rounds scoring average has been 0.163 strokes better than the late rounds scoring average. While 0.163 strokes may not seem like much of a difference, it translates to roughly 20 spots on the PGA Tour Money List.

So, why are the late rounds worse than the early rounds? My theory is that it comes down to two different factors.

No. 1: Wind

The wind tends to pick up around noon and is usually at its lowest speed at the break of dawn. Here’s a chart showing the measured wind speeds in Orlando, Fla., on March 21st of this year. I picked this date arbitrarily to illustrate what the typical wind speeds look like during the day.

Last year I did some statistical research on Tour players and wind. What I found was that once the wind speed reached greater than 12 mph, the scores started to rise noticeably. The chart above shows that the wind increased to more than 12 mph around 11 a.m., but actually became consistently more than 12 mph around 2 p.m.

I also did research on players who became more or less effective when the wind picked up. When the wind speeds rise, I found that score averages also rise regardless of the player, but I wanted to check out the players who were the least affected by the wind and the players that were most affected by the wind and see what they had in common.

Some of the best wind players include:

Stuart Appleby
Brian Harman
Chris Kirk
Matt Jones

Some of the worst wind players include:

John Daly
Keegan Bradley
Bill Haas
Hunter Mahan

While there were some very good wind players who grew up in windy areas like Texas, Scotland or Australia, there were also plenty of poor wind players from those areas as well. That tells me that growing up in a windy area does not guarantee that a golfer will be effective in the wind. There were main areas of the game that the good wind players had in common, however, which were good play from 75-to-125 yards and with short game shots around the green.

My conclusions to those findings is that the wind makes it more difficult for golfers to find the green in regulation, and therefore golfers need to be able to get up and down with more regularity. It is certainly worth noting that big winds can take bad shots, specifically bad tee shots, and push them farther offline. That creates more third or fourth shots from 75-to-125 yards.

No. 2: Putting

There is the theory that it is more difficult to make putts later in the day because of the spike marks and foot imprints.

I did not know if that theory had any merit, so I started looking at the scoring averages of individual players in the early and late rounds over the years. I was most interested in the players who saw the largest regression from the early round scoring average to the late round scoring average and vice versa.

What I found was that the players who had the largest regression in the early rounds usually tend to struggle in three areas of the game:

Approach shots from 175-to-225 yards
Shots from 250-to-275 yards (most likely 3-wood play)
Par-4 Scoring Average

This indicates that golfers who tee off in the morning are playing the course on an even playing field because on Tour, shots from 175-to-225 yards have the largest correlation to success of any individual part of the game. And par-4 scoring averages correlates much more strongly to success on Tour than par-3 or par-5 scoring average. I am not sure what the shots from 250-to-275 yards indicate at this time.

The players with the largest regression in the late rounds, however, tend to struggle in these four very opposite parts of the game:

Putting from 3-to-10 feet
3-Putt Percentage
Strokes Gained – Putting
Shots from 100-to-125 yards

The approach shots from 100-to-125 yards goes along with the research I have done on the better wind players on Tour. And the putting from 3-to-10 feet and 3-putt percentage indicates that the theory that you will make less putts in the afternoon does have some merit to it.

One of the other things my research has shown is that the golfers who rank the best in Strokes Gained – Putting tend to gain the most strokes on the more difficult greens like Pebble Beach and Riviera. Therefore, it does not surprise me that players who rank poorly in Strokes Gained – Putting would struggle more in the afternoon because the green conditions are more difficult.

Here’s some bullet points of what I think the average player can learn from my study:

You’re likely to shoot lower scores early in the morning, so do not be afraid to be aggressive in going after some flags and hitting driver instead of laying up.
If you have an afternoon tee time, check to see what the wind speed is like. If it is more than 12 mph, you may want to put a little extra time on hitting wedge shots and short game shots around the green before you tee off.
If you have an afternoon tee time, you may want to spend a little more time on the practice green to better help adjust to the worsened green conditions.

Related Topics:

Up Next

Why a Tiger-Butch Reunion Won’t Happen

Don't Miss

Will Rory McIlroy go on another FedEx Cup run?

Rich Hunt

Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

36 Comments

Cecilia

Aug 30, 2014 at 3:33 pm

HT

Reply Report comment
leftright

Aug 29, 2014 at 8:40 am

I don’t like to dew sweep and want no part of the golf course early. I also cannot get loose when I play early, especially if it’s cold. I’ll keep my mid-day tee times. Only play early if you have to.
Speaking of statisticians, I work with a guy who is a Bio-Statistics PhD and he wrote a couple of baseball books. He is really into baseball and knows a lot about the players and obviously their stats. His book says Tony Gwynn (recently died of cancer) was the best hitter when he gathered all his data and crunched it. I’m not trying to start a debate but I thought Rich might chime in on this if he is familiar with Dr Schell.

Reply Report comment
Scooter McGavin

Aug 29, 2014 at 7:12 am

I like how my questions get ignored or not published, when I ask about the margin of error with these numbers. Probably because the .163 strokes difference between early and late rounds lies within the margin of error, which means there is literally no story here. As a “statistician” the author would know this, and was obviously trying to create a story from nothing.

Reply Report comment
Pingback: Why and How to Become a Morning Golfer - Distance Direction
DT

Aug 27, 2014 at 11:53 am

What % of amateurs actually hit the range before there round at all, never mind before an early round? Thousands of rounds of data and the best difference is just over 2 tenths of a stroke.

The margin is so slim for the PGA tour, that’s after a proper warm up and stretch. Amateurs are lose by the third or fourth hole, move often then not starting with bogeys, doubles or worse.

Reply Report comment
Rich

Aug 27, 2014 at 8:37 am

Really? So we’re talking about a quarter of a shot at worst right? Over analyse much! Keep reading your articles to see if one might be worth it but still haven’t found one. Hit the ball, walk, find it, hit it again. It’s that simple.

Reply Report comment
John

Aug 27, 2014 at 1:03 am

Ok, it’s time a senior weighed in here. I’m 58, single digit capper in pretty decent shape. I swim and hike. However, the difference in my creaky body between 7am and 10am is significant. These days the later in the day I play, the better I play. My body just feels better with a few hours to oil up.

Reply Report comment
- MHendon
  
  Aug 28, 2014 at 4:37 pm
  
  Same here johnny boy.
  
  Reply Report comment
MHendon

Aug 27, 2014 at 12:51 am

Yeah I’m sure early is better for most people but not me. It’s hard to play well when you’re still asleep. lol

Reply Report comment
larrybud

Aug 26, 2014 at 2:22 pm

A couple of things were left out:
1) Greens are probably more receptive on average in the morning before the heat of the day starts to bake them out
2) If these stats include Sunday rounds, the pressure of a later tee time probably has some influence.

It’d be interesting to see stats just for thursday and friday.

Reply Report comment
GermanBallHunter

Aug 26, 2014 at 10:42 am

The reason why I play better in the morning compared to later in the afternoon is simply because my mind is fresh and less distructed from the day. In the morning I weak up and am totally focused on my game. I head with my coffee straight to the range, hit some balls and I am ready to tee off.

Late tee times usually means that I was working or did my weekend shoppings before.

Reply Report comment
Captain Oblivious

Aug 26, 2014 at 9:45 am

From Dave Pelz:

“What is the lumpy doughnut?
(Fig – pages 33,35) The lumpy doughnut is the congregation of footprints within a radius of 6 feet from the hole. The last 12 inches is almost footprint free and form the doughnut’s hole. This creates a volcanic like entrance ramp that can have significant impact on a ball’s line relative to its speed. The average 500+ footprints a foursome makes in the green take up to 2 hours to spring back up to normal shape. Fresh footprints are to the golf ball like a curb is to a pedestrian crossing the street… in other words, your ball can “trip” on its way to the hole. ”

It amazes me how well the final groups do on the pro tours. They area at quite a disadvantage, IMO.

Reply Report comment
Nigel

Aug 26, 2014 at 9:29 am

As someone who almost exclusively plays pre-8am rounds, I feel that there is a serious third factor: pace of play. I realize that it is possible to have a reasonable pace of play later in the day, but nothing gets me in a good groove like knowing that there is no one (or very few people) in front of me, and that I can play at my own (relatively quick) pace. I usually play my best golf when I can get around in 3.5 hours or less.

Reply Report comment
- Dave C
  
  Aug 26, 2014 at 1:23 pm
  
  TOTALLY AGREE! At least a point for us amateurs.
  
  Reply Report comment
Nick

Aug 26, 2014 at 8:59 am

While I will say that greens are better when freshly mowed and not chewed up by spikes, the truth is the scoring average is better in earlier tee times because the players are better, not just the conditions. Players that tee off early usually have regular tee times and therefore are regular players, as opposed to say a guy playing his first round in 6 months. That guy usually isn’t in the 7:05 group. Not saying you won’t find lots of good sticks later, but I think, the averages favor the early birds. I bet the statistical significance of the scoring average would evaporate if controlled for handicap of player.

Reply Report comment
- Captain Oblivious
  
  Aug 26, 2014 at 9:57 am
  
  How can you say “the statistical significance of the scoring average would disappear” when his study was conducted with the very best golfers on the planet?
  
  I rarely play early morning because I prefer to walk the course. However, when I do, I notice a favorable difference partly due to less wind, but mainly to the better condition of the greens. In the afternoon I have to deal with far more unrepaired ball marks, (which are much more easily repaired immediately than 2 hours later by me), many more scuff marks where some people cannot find the energy to pick up their feet when they walk and many, many more footprints.
  
  Reply Report comment
Early

Aug 26, 2014 at 12:43 am

“you may want to put a little extra time on hitting wedge shots and short game shots around the green before you tee off.”

How about practicing to hit worm-burner bullets à la Lee Trevino so that it gets under the wind and rolls for miles, and also thinking about may be replacing the high-launching clubs with lower launching ones?

“struggle more in the afternoon because the green conditions are more difficult.”
How about the fact that pressure also has a lot to do with it, and not just green conditions?
I don’t see anybody looking at the stats of the guys at the bottom 1/3 of the leaderboard on the 2nd day, as they are about to get cut and go home. Telling me they don’t count? The stats are skewed if you don’t count them in

Reply Report comment
- Richie Hunt
  
  Aug 26, 2014 at 9:11 am
  
  On Thursday and Friday, everybody gets an early or late tee time on Tour regardless of score. So, if you tee off late on Thursday and take the lead after that day, you have an early tee time on Friday regardless of your position.
  
  I actually checked the late vs. early tee times for round 1 vs. round 2 vs. round 3 vs. round 4 and the stats were nearly identical. So for the sake of brevity, I just used the total early vs. late round data.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Scooter McGavin
    
    Aug 26, 2014 at 11:39 pm
    
    What is the margin of error for late vs early round averages?
    
    Reply Report comment
Early

Aug 26, 2014 at 12:38 am

Please lets not compare the Tour stats to our, menial, public-course type stats, hmmmm? Because they don’t relate.

Reply Report comment
- Richie Hunt
  
  Aug 26, 2014 at 9:13 am
  
  So, are you saying that the green conditions do not get worse and the wind will not pick up later in the day?
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Driving range closed
    
    Aug 26, 2014 at 9:23 am
    
    No, the difference being that public courses don’t usually have the driving range open an hour before the first tee time !
    
    Reply Report comment
paul

Aug 25, 2014 at 11:42 pm

For me the difference can be several strokes. I love playing at 6am and being done before its hot out. Greens are slowed down and putting is much easier. I suck on fast greens cause I am to aggressive putting.

Reply Report comment
Paul Christianson

Aug 25, 2014 at 10:48 pm

Good stuff. I’d be interested to see the results of just the first two rounds of tournament play. This would allow us to control for more variables and ensure that we are taking a proper sample. Once the cut is made, some more variables come into play that are harder to control for. Is it possible to just measure the 1st and 2nd rounds?

Reply Report comment
- Richie Hunt
  
  Aug 26, 2014 at 9:15 am
  
  I looked at the data for each of the rounds and it’s very similar across the board. So, I just used the total round data for the sake of brevity.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Scooter McGavin
    
    Aug 26, 2014 at 11:40 pm
    
    What is the margin of error for late vs early round averages?
    
    Reply Report comment
TR1PTIK

Aug 25, 2014 at 10:36 pm

I prefer early tee times when I can get them – 7am if I can, but definitely before 9. I’ve found that I feel more comfortable in the mornings and tend to relax a little more because the temps are cooler, and unless it’s just nasty the scenery and lighting conditions seem to be better in the mornings which helps me stay positive. It’s not that I can’t score well later in the day, but it definitely requires more effort.

Reply Report comment
Joe Calcio

Aug 25, 2014 at 9:21 pm

Great article and research Rich. Very interesting.

I’d be curious if you looked at whether the results hold up when only looking at Thurs/Fri rounds pre-cut?

Part of me wonders if pressure of trying hold a lead or move up the board on Sat/Sun has any impact. But these are the pros, right? They don’t feel pressure!

Reply Report comment
- Jimmy Jimmy
  
  Aug 27, 2014 at 5:41 pm
  
  I wonder if the difference is even more than just a tenth of a shot. If Saturday and Sunday are included in the figures above, then the leaders (presumably playing better golf cause they’re in the lead) go out at the end of the day while those playing more poorly go out earlier. The guys that aren’t playing as good are being given a boost, resulting in better scores than the leaders.
  
  Reply Report comment
Martin

Aug 25, 2014 at 8:59 pm

It’s not better for me, I live in the north and am not a good enough putter to putt on greens covered in dew for 7 holes the 2 holes while it burns off and then a third speed when they are dry.

I can count on one hand the number of really great rounds I have played before 9:00 AM.

My preference is the crack of 10:00.

Reply Report comment
Kristian

Aug 25, 2014 at 7:15 pm

For me, early tee times often have me playing slightly worse than daytime rounds purely for the fact that I get to short-warmup jitters. During the day, I’m awake, fed, and feeling energized. In the morning, I usually feel a bit tired, I’ve not always eaten a full meal, and I don’t always have time to really warm up. That difference usually results in me standing over the ball on the first few holes with an iron or a wedge in my hand having a n inner dialogue with myself about not making a mis-hit.

Reply Report comment
- Happyday_J
  
  Aug 25, 2014 at 8:17 pm
  
  Adam Scott had a similar problem and took the advice from a veteran tour player, always wake up 3 hours before your tee time.
  
  I do the same, and if it is a tournament, I will work out and go for a run before hand. That way, my blood has been pumping, I’ve loosened up from my sleep and when I get the range an hour before, I am ready to start warming up and preparing for the round of golf. Allowing to be in attacking mode the first few holes and not be cautious b.c I am not awake.
  
  Can make for early 4 am wake up calls, but hey, my motto, we all have plenty of time to sleep when we are dead, dont waste time while we are alive ;).
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Early
    
    Aug 26, 2014 at 12:36 am
    
    HappydayJ:
    
    Yeah? Have you ever played the first tee time of the morning on a public course? The driving range ain’t open, man. it’s usually still dark as you tee the ball up. So how do you expect to “warm up”???
    
    Reply Report comment
    - Happyday_J
      
      Aug 26, 2014 at 12:28 pm
      
      I have hit balls in the dark on numerous occasions, a warm up is a warm up, get the motion of the swing down, loosen up and make solid contact. Believe it or not, based on how you hit it, you can get a good idea where its going, shape and trajectory.
      
      Reply Report comment
    - Happyday_J
      
      Aug 26, 2014 at 12:29 pm
      
      Sorry, missed the point of the range not being open, in that case, I have a couple spare balls in the bag that are hit-aways, and go to the range and hit them. There is always a way.
      
      Reply Report comment
Scooter McGavin

Aug 25, 2014 at 5:20 pm

For the Late vs. Early round averages, what is the margin of error?

Reply Report comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Opinion & Analysis

AVL: My U.S. Amateur local qualifying experience

Published

6 days ago

Jun 5, 2026

Andrew Von Lossow

This past Monday, I played in the U.S. Amateur local qualifier at Rock Creek Country Club in Portland, Oregon. A full tee sheet from 7:30 a.m. to 1:55 p.m., the top 11 scores would make it to the U.S. Amateur final qualifying.

I teed off at 10:48 a.m.. With the 7:30 am tee time, you can get a feel for the leaders’ pace, and they were off and running on the challenging setup at Rock Creek.

View this post on Instagram

A post shared by GolfWRX (@golfwrx)

Getting to the highlight of the round on the par five 17th, a drive up the left side and 212 yards left to the front hole location. I took out a 5-iron with plans of middle of the green. The ball ended up 8 feet left of the hole, pin high. A slight downhill putt dropped in for an eagle 3 on the 17th. With the cut line looking to be anywhere from -2 to even par. This was the boost I had been waiting for all day.

With making par from the trees on 18, it was time to wait for a potential playoff with a posted score of one under par 71.

Three hours later, it was playoff time. 8 players for 6 spots. I made par on the playoff hole, which was good enough to advance to the U.S. Amateur final qualifying in July. USGA qualifiers sure deliver on all of the emotions in golf!

Club Junkie

Building my 2026 gamer WITB: Ranking the contenders and new putter projects – Club Junkie Podcast

Published

1 week ago

Jun 4, 2026

GolfWRX Staff

The annual What’s In The Bag build is underway, and on this episode of Club Junkie, Brian breaks down the clubs currently leading the race for a spot in his 2026 gamer setup. From drivers and fairway woods to irons, wedges, and shafts, he ranks the equipment that’s performing best and explains what’s separating the front runners from the rest of the field.

Brian also heads into the workshop to discuss several putter projects currently on the bench. From head options and shaft choices to build ideas and testing plans, he shares what he’s working on and which putters could become serious contenders for the bag this season.

If you’re a gear junkie who loves equipment testing, club building, and the never-ending pursuit of the perfect setup, this episode is for you.

Follow Club Junkie:
Instagram: @clubjunkiepod
TikTok: @clubjunkiepod
Threads: @clubjunkiepod
X: @ClubJunkiePod

Club Junkie

Tour Edge Exotics mini driver review + TaylorMade Spider ZT Max first look – Club Junkie

Published

2 weeks ago

May 28, 2026

Brian Knudson

On this episode of Club Junkie, I put the new Tour Edge Exotics Mini Driver to the test and break down the performance, forgiveness, distance, and where it fits compared to a traditional driver or strong fairway wood. If you have been curious about adding a mini driver to the bag, this one is worth a look.

I also dive into the new TaylorMade Spider ZT Max putter that was recently spotted and discuss the growing zero torque putter trend. Plus, there is a closer look at the new Project X Titan Yellow shaft showing up on the PGA Tour and what makes it different from other profiles currently out there.