It’s FedEx Cup Playoffs time and golf’s main man, Rory McIlroy, also happens to be perched atop the standings as the four-week show commences.

The 25-year-old is yet to capture the PGA Tour’s holy grail but made plenty of noise with inspiring back-to-back victories at the Deutsche Bank and BMW Championships in the 2012 Playoffs.

Of course, the Northern Irishman enters the 2014 proceedings with extraordinary momentum. McIlroy hasn’t lost since early July, triumphing to victory in his last three events, and he also secured the European Tour’s flagship event, the BMW Championship, in late May.

McIlroy’s victory haul includes the year’s final two major championships, just like Tiger Woods in 2006, and his three-event winning streak moving into the Playoffs looks very similar to Woods’ progression in 2006. So you know what McIlroy’s summer to remember compares so well to? Yep, you guessed it: Nick Price in 1994.

All joking aside, Price’s 1994 was a fantastic season, and McIlroy still has time to surpass it and put his credentials on par with Woods’ 2006. But, for the latter, that will need to include a FedEx Cup run even more potent than his 2012 scorched Earth campaign.

Can McIlroy produce something in line with 2012 or better? We wade through the reasons, for and against, to come to a final conclusion.

Pro: McIlroy is Playing the Best Golf of his Life

Not much explanation needed here. Ever since the Open Championship, McIlroy has been the sport’s unstoppable force, and if it wasn’t for a severe but brief case of the Fridays, that streak would extend back to the BMW PGA in late May. As we’ve noted, that’s three consecutive wins and four in eight starts, all against some of the year’s best fields.

McIlroy’s summer form against the world’s top golfers has simply been insane. Considering this recent history, how can he not peg off at least a couple of victories in the Playoffs?

Con: History shows that McIlroy is extremely vulnerable to valleys in his play

McIlroy is no stranger to the concept of extremely volatile golf, and is in fact one of its greatest purveyors. There was the summer of 2011, where McIlroy did absolutely nothing following his U.S. Open triumph. Then came the drought of 2012, where in a two-month span between May and July he barely made a cut. And last year, the Northern Irishman experienced a significant dip for much of his spring and summer.

The depth of McIlroy’s consistency issues has been inexcusable for any world-class player, let alone for Woods’ ridiculous standard.

Unfortunately for McIlroy, the positive portion of his largely boom-or-bust style had never lasted more than three consecutive months heading into 2014. And, as boom or bust would imply, he tends to produce his worst golf after this blast of excellent form. That’s pretty alarming considering we are rapidly approaching the three-month anniversary of his BMW PGA win.

In that case then, history suggests a massive dip in McIlroy’s form very soon. That would mean goodbye epic season, hello end-of-year mediocrity.

Pro: McIlroy is a new man in 2014

Then again, past tendencies aren’t always a harbinger of future play.

For McIlroy, one of the most exciting developments of 2014 is the absence of the severe poor performance that used to be his nemesis. After missing five cuts in both 2012 and 2013, McIlroy failed to advance to the weekend just once so far in his 18 starts. And all 17 of those finishes were top-25s.

Even before the 25-year-old’s recent run he was in the midst of a successful, if quite unheralded 2014. The results included a whopping eight top-10s in half a season, even if a few of them were admittedly backdoor.

So while McIlroy has retained his ability to unleash an unbeleiveably high level of play, he’s rid himself, for now, of his shockingly low lulls. That bodes well for the Playoffs.

Yes, the three-month expiration date is nearing, but it might no longer be applicable. McIlroy appears no longer in danger of losing his form completely after a few sensational months.

Con: McIlroy is physically and emotionally worn down

This isn’t speculation, McIlroy admitted as much in his presser following the PGA Championship’s final round.

With the crunched nature of the FedEx Cup Playoffs schedule—four events in four weeks—fatigue becomes an overwhelming issue for those who participate throughout, as Tiger Woods so eloquently put last year.

Sure, McIlroy benefits from a week of rest following the PGA, but his brain and body will probably still be on the fritz for this month-long deluge of golf. And even if he skips an event, that still leaves three tournaments in four weeks for an already worn down superstar.

If McIlroy can’t recover his previous energy, he might be in for a rude awakening during the Playoffs.

Pro: McIlroy thrives at season’s end

The late summer/fall portion of the calendar has been kind to McIlroy throughout his career.

He emerged from his post-2011 U.S. Open rut in September with a string of five consecutive top-four finishes, including a victory. Then there were the Playoff wins in 2012. And last season McIlroy was mired in poor form until August hit and the top-10s started flowing, with another end-of-year victory in December.

As we noted, it’s not always wise to base competitors’ future on their past tendencies. But we only have evidence of McIlroy nixing his most troubling habit. Nothing yet suggests McIlroy’s tendency to end his campaigns with fire is soon to cease.

Until the results prove otherwise, McIlroy is highly adept at great late season golf, and that should carry over into the 2014 FedEx Cup Playoffs.

Con: A lack of motivation

Following the PGA Championship, McIlroy did state that it was a big goal of his to win the FedEx Cup. But we have to wonder whether his thirst for victory has dipped a tad in the short term.

We question not as an indictment of McIlroy, but rather as an ode to the situation’s context. He’s absolutely 2014’s player of the year. He’s clearly the best golfer on the planet. He’s won two consecutive major championships, the most important tournaments in the sport. He’s unanimously viewed as the game’s future leader.

With all of that, we can understand if McIlroy were to become a bit complacent in the coming months. And when complacency sets in, form dips.

Verdict

It’s hard to accomplish what McIlroy did (or better) in the 2012 Playoffs, even in his current form.

That being said, only the concern of McIlroy’s fatigue could potentially scare me away from picking him for an inspired run. And it’s not enough to ignore the potency of all the positive signs.

I wouldn’t pencil McIlroy in for three or four consecutive victories, but something on the level of his 2012 showing is in order.

My guess is that McIlroy only gets one win but garners very high finishes in his other appearances. And in the end that will be enough for the FedEx Cup crown.