A pleasant week for the column at the Corales Puntacana, with Cameron Percy landing the top-20 wager with comfort and an added +950 bet for top-10. At halfway, it looked like G-Mac might provide even more cheer, but a back problem led to an awful weekend and put paid to that hope.

We move on to the Valero Open, an event that recently took over from the Houston Open as the Augusta warm-up and is now rewarded with Rory McIlroy’s first appearance since 2013.

With bigger fish to fry in a week’s time, and some players needing to win here to gain entry down Magnolia Lane, there should be some value props.

Alongside Matt Vincenzi’s outright preview, here are this week’s top side bets.

Corey Conners Top 10 +225

Corey Conners to beat Rory McIlroy +130

Ok, I’ll admit, the Canadian is my one-and-done for this week in Texas, and these two look the best ways of being with him outside of the win market.

Recent previous winners Andrew Landry, Kevin Chappell, and Charley Hoffman have all found form at the RSM Classic at coastal Sea Island. They have excellent figures around Bay Hill, both correlations making perfect sense with events providing unpredictable winds and emphasis on approach play.

Whilst this course demands a solid tee-to-green game, many of the top five players of recent times have ranked outside of the top-40 for off-the-tee figures, making their strong ball-striking figures via approach stats, and with Conners we have a perfect match.

Four from four at the RSM, he has a best of 10th place and a couple of rounds in the low 60s to make him of interest at all wind-affected tracks, whilst an 11th and second at Bay Hill also carry much clout.

The softer conditions of the November Masters suited and the similar conditions he found when winning around here, but his best-ever major effort (T8) came via the faster conditions of Augusta just 12 months ago, so there are no ‘one-trick pony’ concerns.

The 30-year-old was the winner of this event on his second event start in 2019, an effort that is sandwiched by a 14th and 26th place, whilst he can boast enough relative and current form to make him a huge play this week.

Currently 21st in ball-striking for the tour over the last three months, that period has also seen him lead the tee-to-green starts at Bay Hill when top 10 going into the final round of an elongated tournament. He ranks eighth in this field for tee-to-green over the last two months, and it’s all just too hard to resist.

In 2021, Conners recorded a 3rd at Bay Hill, 7th at Sawgrass and 14th here before that Masters challenge and a fourth place at the RBC Heritage. He keeps form and looks to be coming right after an 11th place on his first outing of the year in Hawaii, with his current form going the right way.

After another 11th place, this time at Bay Hill, three weeks ago, he followed that with a quality display last weekend that saw him become the first Canadian to make the semi-finals of the World Match Play, proving that keeping it in-play gets results.

Do that here and not only will he be a strong challenger for the title but also give event favourite McIlroy, a run.

I’m just not sure what Rory is doing here. He admits this is, ”just a way for me to get my mind away, get out of thinking so much about the future and focus a little more on the present.”

It sounds like he is here to get away from Augusta hype and the inevitable circus that comes with it rather than be determined to win here.

Rarely one to be with when the wind blows; he will need to be a lot more accurate with his driver to get the ball around here. Whilst accessible, anyone getting the ball in the trees off the tee is in trouble. Ask Kevin Na…

Adam Hadwin Top 5 +750

Adam Hadwin Top 10 +410

Looks like we are on the Canadian train this week as 34-year-old Hadwin joins his compatriot atop the selections.

Missing the cut on debut in 2015 is of no worry, and two outings since suggest he is getting to grips with San Antonio, recording a 72nd place finish (inside the top 40 at halfway) and, after a four-year hiatus, a top-25 last season.

That seems a good enough base to build on, but he is also one of the most in-form golfers in the field and maybe a little under-rated against the likes of Rory, Jordan et al.

Sixth place at the Shriners reads well enough (see Laird below), and in four of his last five outings, Hadwin has recorded a 16th at Pebble, 26th in Pheonix (top-10 through the first three rounds), a closing ninth place at Sawgrass and latterly an always-present seventh place at Copperhead, an event he led after the first round.

Back form works nicely too. Back up this season’s effort at Summerlin with a T4 in 2019 and add top-10 finishes at Bay Hill and the Desert Classic, whilst a bronze medal at the 2018 CareerBuilder reads very well give he split two winners of this event, Landry and Chappell.

Approach play has been top grade over the past few events, ranking between seventh and 22nd, a performance that sees him rank sixth in tee-to-green for this field over the last few weeks.

Hadwin has been quietly fancied for a few events this term, and this looks like his chance to give something back to his loyal backers.

Martin Laird Top 20 +350

Martin Laird Top 40 +140

Windy, desert-like, Martin Laird.

There is nothing hidden with the 39-year-old Scot, and I’m not worried about form with him either. When conditions suit, Laird is always worth a look.

Twice winner in Nevada, once at the API at Bay Hill and conqueror of Rory McIlroy in 2013, Laird just turns up without warning. In an event that has seen Landry, Conners and Chappell win with little notice, he can overcome recent figures to land a couple of props.

When victorious here, Laird came off four missed cuts from six starts and a best of T34 at the API, whilst although he waited seven years to win the Shriners for the second time, that also came off a rough run of figures, a best of T28 after a pair of 65th place finishes and a missed-cut.

Best finishes over the last six months have suitably been at his favourite event at Las Vegas and a T14 in Arizona, both giving further evidence to his love of certain conditions, whilst he ranks 12th in this field for tee-to-green over the last eight weeks.

The Scot has missed just one weekend from eight tries at San Antonio, recording a pair of top-20 and two top-40 finishes in his last four starts.

Get with him to make another.