After a couple of events at Education City, the DP World Tour return to familiar Doha for the 25th running of the Qatar Masters.

While there have been changes to the putting surfaces, the course should present the same challenge as it has in the uninterrupted run from 1998 to 2019.

Whilst not officially a links course, Doha is usually affected by a degree of wind, and this week’s forecast promises gusts in abundance. Saying all that, looking at recent winners, ‘links’ is exactly what springs to mind.

Go back as far as you wish – Branden Grace is twice a winner here and has won at the Dunhill Links; Sergio Garcia was runner-up in The Open and has plenty of desert form; Chris Wood placed in The Open as an amateur; Paul Lawrie and Thomas Bjorn are links legends, and on and on it goes right through to 2019 champion, Justin Harding and the nine runners-up, many of which only show their best in these conditions.

Matthieu Pavon – +4500

If going for one from the very top, it would have to be George Coetzee, who loves this place, has correlating form in Portugal and on links tracks, and is in decent enough form. I just can’t press the trigger at the price, however tempting.

I’m sticking with the Frenchman for the third time in as many starts, believing that he is close to turning some decent finishes into a win.

Many believe that the 29-year-old has been showing quality only recently and will revert to type, but he has plenty of back form that suggests he isn’t a flash-in-the-pan.

Without wishing to go over old ground, Pavon could easily have won in Portugal, a hugely relevant event for correlation to Qatar in all its guises. A treble-bogey eight halfway down the home stretch could have stunned him out of kilter, but he bounced back with a superb, attacking tee-shot to three feet on the next par-3, a bounce-back he repeated during last Sunday’s final round in Steyn City.

Pavon has kept his form going since that effort, ranked second-best of his career, with a fast-closing bronze medal at Ras al Khaimah, and a better-than-it-looked effort in the repeat – although 30th, he lay ninth going into payday.

Again, he closed at the weekend at both Kenya (sixth from an opening 23rd) and Pecanwood, where a poor third round 73 saw him lie in 59th place before a Sunday rally, and a 64 saw him finish in 15th.

He was pedestrian at Steyn City last week after putting himself just outside the top-20 at halfway, but that was also true of the likes of George Coetzee and Brandon Stone, so perhaps there was something in the water.

Either way, past form shows he can take to these conditions, with a third-place at the 2017 Scottish Open, in amongst the likes of Rafa Cabrera-Bello, Callum Shinkwin, Ryan Fox and Padraig Harrington, all confirmed links exponents; whilst a fourth and fifth in Mauritius sees him covered by similar players.

Pavon was 25th at the 2018 U.S open, has top-10s at the Nordea when again surrounded by top-class players suited to this test, and in the form he is in, this is his chance to leave some moderate course form behind.

Jeff Winther +10000

Jeff Winther Top-10 finish +1000 

33-year-old Winther will rarely be one that appears at the top of possible bets, but that makes him a bigger price than he should be when conditions are right.

The Dane always seemed to be one of those that fumbled around on the Challenge Tour, threatening but not delivering, until in Mallorca last October.

In leading for most of the island’s Open, Winther found the peak of some decent current form that led him to beat Jorge Campillo and Sebastián Soderberg, the former a stalwart of this event (more later), the latter one of the best ball-strikers on the tour.

Always prominent when third behind Campillo and David Drysdale at Education City in 2020, Winther can also boast a pair of top-15 finishes in Qatar, one at each of the courses. Indeed, in 2021, Winther found himself in front at the halfway stage before dropping to 14th by the end of play.

That effort, alongside a T12 in Oman (same greens, similar wind, just behind Campillo and Peter Hanson, another confirmed Doha enthusiast), third place at island location Gran Canaria, and a top-15 at St.Andrews (sixth after three rounds) should have been enough to hint that he could win – it was no real surprise that he did so just a couple of weeks later. More of a pleasing factor was the way he led for most of the way, headed only for a brief few holes and, finding 11 shots with his putting, something he is prone to do and seemingly the catalyst for much of his better results.

After an uncharacteristically poor run in the desert, the rest will have done him good and I expect him to show much more over the next few events.

Jorge Campillo +6500

Jorge Campillo Top-10 finish +650

Think Doha and the other obvious name to go alongside Coetzee will be that of the Spaniard.

Windy conditions often call for players that have a bit of natural flair and the ability to think about their shots, and Campillo and his compatriots have shown that at Doha over the years.

Alvaro Quiros, another player with huge links form, won here in 2009 before being runner-up over the next two years, Sergio Garcia has won and been runner-up here, whilst Cabrera-Bello and Nacho Elvira are other names to have taken home the silver medal.

Campillo, though, is the current Spanish king of Qatar, with a run of 28/1/2/13/20, many of which could have been even better.

2016 saw the then 30-year-old lie 11th at halfway, whilst he led at that point a year later before finishing 13th.

12 months later, Campillo was the fastest finisher of the nine runners-up to Harding, before leaving behind a run of three missed-cuts and a best of T67 as he beat David Drysdale in a five-hole playoff.

In his defence last year, Campillo again came into the event after a trio of missed cuts, but was in the top 10 after Saturday’s third round before dropping to a top-30 finish.

The latest form is much more consistent than we are used to, with the 13th in Kenya the worst he could have done given the lay in fourth going into the final round, whilst I’ll happily take a 25th and 28th over the last two weeks in South Africa. They tee him up nicely for this week.

It’s Qatar, therefore it’s Jorge Campillo.