The PGA Tour heads out east this week, with PGA National hosting the 2022 Honda Classic from the Sunshine State.

As always, the props column runs alongside Matt Vincenzi’s look at the outright market to bring you the best value on the card. 

Matt Jones – Top 5/Top 10 – +1100/+400

There is a vast bank of evidence that suggests form at PGA National repeats with regularity but, in the last 20 runnings, only one player, Padraig Harrington, has actually won twice, ten years after his initial victory.

That doesn’t bode particularly well for defending champ Matt Jones, but everything else points to him having a good week.

Two wins and a runner-up finish at his home Open (at coastal Sydney) make the obvious suggestion to linksy, windy tracks and his portfolio of finishes are of no surprise – a win at Houston, 3rd at Bay Hill, and a 4th, 18th, and finally victory here.

On a track where it’s rare to see double-figure winning scores, the 41-year-old has the right game plan –

”In the wind I probably played a little safer. I don’t go at pins. I like to try and control my ball flights in the wind, so I probably take the speed off a lot of the time. But, yeah, it’s not lowering expectations, it’s just playing a little more conservatively is a better way to put it.”

The last four winners, including the Australian, have led the tee-to-green stats and ranked top-10 in approaches and around-the-green, and Jones warmed up for his defence by finishing 8th at Riviera last week, recording stats within the top-10 for the same.

Michael Thompson -Top 5/ Top 10 1400/+600

Rather like Jones, 36-year-old Thompson has a catalogue of best finishes at the tougher tracks, and like the Aussie, comes here as a past champion.

Go as far back as his debut at the infamous 2008 U.S Open at Torrey Pines, an event at which he finished 28th as an amateur, and his third place finish at the 2011 McGladrey Classic, now the RSM, at Sea Island. On that occasion, the top-10 was littered with players that thrive in the wind, and on narrow, tricky tracks – witness the names Webb Simpson, Louis Oosthuizen, Trevor Immelman and Kevin Streelman, to name just four.

A year later, the Alabama native sat as clubhouse leader after concluding the 2012 U.S Open, at the Olympic, until Simpson nabbed him on the line, whilst three wins since include victory here in 2013 when beating previous U.S open winner, Geoff Ogilvy.

Top-10s at Colonial, Harbour Town (x2), Sony (x2) and Riviera all point to an obvious liking for a certain course type and, whilst he has missed three of his last five cuts, those positive results include a 5th at Waialae and 11th at Torrey where, at both, he ranked in the top-10 for tee-to-green and around-the-green, assets vital this week. Expect that to continue.

Lucas Glover -Top 10/Top 30 +750/+210

No kids yet this week. It’s all about experience!

The list of winners and runner-ups at PGA National reads like a list of major contenders, so putting up the 2009 U.S Open champion fits nicely.

It’s pretty much set in stone that Glover plays best at courses that require an accurate tee-to-green game over a birdie-fest with the putter, and mark him higher still when there is a gust or two.

Whilst recording lower-field rankings for putting, the 42-year-old has always put up his best finishes when ball-striking is key. Witness a fourth place in Texas (5th approach, 4th tee-to-green, 45th putting), a win at the John Deere (3rd, 4th and a surprising 19th on the greens) and, in January, a fifth place finish at the Sony, where he led the approaches, was second tee-to-green but 40th for the flat stick.

I also liked his weird streaks where he hints at better to come, strikes, and then goes off again for a while.

At the end of 2020, Glover missed three cuts, hinted at form with a T23 and then struck with a fifth place in the Mayakoba. March 2021 saw a run of 66/T48/T19 and then fourth in Texas, his win at the TPC Deere Run was preceded with MC/31, and that recent fifth in Hawaii came off a series of lower table finishes and a 35th in the limited field at Kapalua.

Recent mid-30 finishes are far from discouraging and he is back on the course where he understandably has some of his best putting stats.

Put it all together and it could be an enjoyable week for the man that finished fourth here in 2019 with little of his best game in tow.

Greyson Sigg – Top 20/Top 40 +500/+200

The 26-year-old Georgia Bulldog was one of our Ten To Follow in 2022 and is worth following blind for the rest of the year, and especially on courses that require accuracy off the tee-box.

Not that he can’t go low – he once shot a final round 59 on the Canadian Tour – but he’s known as one of the straightest drivers around and added more evidence to that recently when ranking 16th and ninth respectively for driving accuracy at the American Express and Farmers.

As we say on the Lost Fore Words podcast, there is often more to just looking at form figures and closer perusal shows that Sigg was third at halfway at the three-course event, and 10th going into the last day at Pebble Beach, progressive form that does hint at adding to the pair of victories on the Korn Ferry Tour.

Much younger than any of the first three selections, Sigg has plenty more improvement to come, but like Glover his wins have been at the end of a run of midfield finishes – MC/T60/T53/1 and T47/T60/T15/T35/1 – so a recent run of mid 20 and 30 finishes are encouraging, and whilst this his debut here he has a strong record in Florida with three top-seven finishes and no missed cuts in five KFT starts here.

With a strong team behind him, and stating that mid-30 finishes are good but not what he wants, let’s be on before he gets top-10 finishes and starts shortening in the market.