After a captivating week at Riviera, The PGA Tour heads to PGA National to begin it’s Florida swing and play The Honda Classic. The event will be a major challenge for golfers as PGA National is one of the most difficult courses on the PGA Tour.

PGA National is a 7,125 yards par 70 and features Bermuda-grass greens.  Originally a Tom Fazio design, it was redesigned by Jack Nicklaus. The course features the infamous “Bear Trap”, on holes 15-17, three of the toughest holes on Tour. Wind tends to play a factor which makes the scoring even more challenging.

The field is a bit of a letdown as it has had many years where it has been much stronger.  However, there are still some big names in the field including Brooks Koepka, Sungjae Im, Tommy Fleetwood, Joaquin Niemann, Daniel Berger, Rickie Fowler and Shane Lowry.

Fresh off of a +7000 winner last week, let’s dig into the outright bets of the week.

Honda Classic Outright Bets

Brooks Koepka (+2000) (DraftKings)

This is purely a ceiling play on Brooks Koepka. He won’t show up in many stat models this week or jump off the page with his play over the past six months. With that being said, he has shown that when he returns to courses where he has had success in the past, he can contend.

Before missing the cut at Riviera, Koepka was off to the races at the WM Phoenix Open. By week’s end, he finished in third place. The reason for his success was his strong off the tee game. We have seen at PGA National that despite it being a shorter course, golfers who hit it long and straight tend to do very well.

Back in 2019, Koepka came in 2nd place at this event and looked like he was going to force a playoff before Keith Mitchell drained a 15-foot birdie putt on the 18th green to win the tournament. Koepka is comfortable at PGA National and tends to play great golf in Florida. His best putting surface by a wide margin is Bermudagrass, which is no surprise given that he grew up in Florida and attended Florida State University.

Could Koepka miss the cut once again this week? Absolutely. But, in the outright betting market a missed cut pays the same amount as a 2nd place finish. If Brooks in engaged and motivated, he is the class of the field and will be difficult to beat.

Tommy Fleetwood (+2800) (Bet365)

Everyone knows that Tommy Fleetwood has never won on American soil. However, if there is an event that the Englishman has a real chance to win, it’s the Honda Classic. He has immaculate course history, finishing 3rd in 2020 and 4th in 2018.

Despite the lack of PGA Tour results of late, Fleetwood has been playing some decent golf worldwide. A few weeks ago, at the Saudi International finished in a tie for 8th place and had a shot to win going into the final round before a Sunday 73 derailed his chances. He has been playing consistently on the DP World Tour, and while he would like to have better results on a tour that he has five career wins on, he won’t be coming to Florida working through any rust.

Fleetwood has gained over 5 strokes on approach on the field in his two starts at PGA National, which may indicate there is something about the windy difficult conditions that resonate with the 31-year-old fan favorite.

The 2022 PGA Tour season has already generated two first-time winners in Luke List and Scottie Scheffler. Why not Tommy in Palm Beach?

Brendan Steele (+14000)(Bet365)

As far as course form at PGA National, you won’t find any better in the triple digit odds range than Brendan Steele. With a fourth-place finish in 2020 and a third-place finish in 2021, the 38-year-old has proven he knows his way around PGA National.

The issue for Steele coming in is that he is currently is very poor form. He has missed 4 of his past 6 cuts and is losing strokes with his irons, which is typically a strength of his. However, in the past when he has played well at this event, his starts leading into the event are similar to what they are now. In 2020, he had lead-in-form of 43-MC-MC prior to his 4th place finish. In 2021, he had lead-in-form of 43-18-41 prior to his 3rd place finish. While those finishes are a bit better, he did lose more than 3 strokes on approach in two of those three starts prior to the Honda Classic. Additionally, he finished 44th or worse leading up to each of his two PGA Tour victories (both at Silverado Resort and Spa).

Steele has had success at courses he has a proven track record at, even when he seems to be limping into the event.

Camilo Villegas (+15000)(DraftKings)

After a number of years of irrelevance, the former number seven ranked player in the world (2008), flashed some decent form last season starting with the Florida swing. Villegas has always played well in Florida and earned his third PGA Tour victory at the Honda Classic back in 2010.

Last season, the Colombian seemed to regain some of the positive vibes in Florida. He finished 8th at the 2021 Honda Classic, and then finished 11th at the Valspar six weeks later. Both events are very difficult bermudagrass courses, and Camilo played very well both weeks. He gained more than 3.9 strokes on approach at PGA National and 4.9 strokes putting.

At long odds, you could do worse than taking a stab at Villegas on one of his favorite courses at the right time of year.