Opinion & Analysis

Do longer hitters really earn more money on the PGA Tour?

Published

8 years ago

Nov 30, 2018

If you have been hiding in the woods for the past 15 years, let me bring you up to speed: the great debate in golf is over distance. Are players hitting the ball further…and maybe even too far? Are working out and better athletes changing the game? In 2001, Hank Keuhne averaged 321 yards off the tee, compared to 318 yards in 2018 for PGA Tour Leader Rory McIlroy.

One should expect changes in distance between 2001-2006-ish, as players adopted better technology in balls and larger head drivers. But since those changes, what does the data say? Here is a chart with the data for players from 2007-2015, which shows year, average driving distance, the leader on the PGA Tour, their driving distance, and the number of players who averaged over 300 yards.

Year	PGA Tour avg. driving distance	PGA Tour leader (yards)	Players avg. over 300 yards
2015	289.7	Dustin Johnson (317.7)	26
2014	288.8	Bubba Watson (314.3)	25
2013	287.2	Luke List (306.8)	13
2012	289.1	Bubba Watson (315.5)	21
2011	290.9	J.B Holmes (318.4)	21
2010	287.3	Robert Garrigus (315.5)	12
2009	287.3	Robert Garrigus (312)	13
2008	287.3	Bubba Watson (315.1)	13
2007	288.6	Bubba Watson (315.2)	18

These numbers suggest that players are not hitting it any further but do not answer the question does distance matter? To answer this question, I looked closer at the numbers to examine the relationship between distance and earnings. When looking at the top 15 longest players over the past 3 years with at least 20 events played, here is the data

Average Earnings / year (for all 15 players)	$52,000,000
Average earnings per player/year	$3,500,000
Top ten finish on money list	4.3/15 (29%)
Number which maintained their PGA tour card for following year	13.3/15 (89%)
3 Year Total Earnings	$157,582,450
3 Year Driving Average	310.2 yards
Average Dollars per yard (longest 15)	$508,002
Average Dollars per yard (each player – longest 15)	$33,866

Now, let’s compare the top 15 longest players to the shortest 15 players with a minimum of 20 events

Average Earnings / year (for all 15 players)	$13,600,000
Average earnings per player/year	$910,000
Top ten finish on money list	0/15 (0%)
Number which maintained their PGA tour card for following year	6/15 (40%)
3 Year Total Earnings	$41,095,786
3 Year Driving Average	278.6 yards
Average Earnings / Yard (shortest 15 players)	$147,508
Average Dollars per Yard (each player – shortest 15)	$9,833

In this data set the 15 shortest hitters are averaging 278.6yards/drive (over 3 year period 2016-2018), while the 15 longest hitters are averaging 310.2 yards/drive (over 3 year period 2016-2018). This means each yard to the player at the bottom is worth approximately $9,833, while each drive for the top 15 players yields approximately $33,866.

Based on this simple information it tells us a couple things inherently

1) the players who are on the bottom of the list for driving distance have a distinct motivator for getting all areas covered in their coaching profiles, which includes fitness. Money tends to speak loudly and in this case we believe the trend on tour is showing this.

2) Peak physical conditioning for these golfers is a part of the pie that yields these staggering numbers with respect to earnings. Ignoring that piece of the pie is a very big gamble to the bottom line of the players. It is of our opinion that the reason you see less of the buffet line being utilized and more of the Whole Foods consumption, is that health and wellness matter to these players. The proof is in the numbers and in the last 3-5 years those numbers are speaking very loudly.

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Lance Gill

I am the Co-Director of the Titleist Performance Institute Fitness Advisory Board. I share duties with Jason Glass on establishing protocols for player development in the fields of functional movement restoration, physical screening, strength and power screening and development and for player development globally. I also serve as Lead Instructor for TPI Level 1 and Level 2 Fitness Seminars globally. I have personally taught over 10,000 experts in the fields of; Golf Fitness, Golf Instruction, Medicine, Junior and Biomechanical proficiencies. Serving as lead instructor has taken me all over the world learning from the best fitness, medical and golf instructors that are currently in the industry. I have served the TPI brand loyally for more than 13 years and am actively functioning as the Performance Director at the Institute, overseeing many projects including the development of; PGA, LPGA, EPGA, Web.com, Symetra, Challenge Tour, KPGA, JPGA, KLPGA, JLPGA, and LatinAmerica Tour players, as well as multiple National Federation Teams. My duties include Biomechanical Evaluations, Physical Screening, Program Development, Practice Schedule Development, Periodization of Programs, Coach Education, Trainer Education and Medical Education of player staff. With the comprehensive approach via the TPI methodology, I have helped countless tour players reach and move towards their personal goals and at the same time gain worldwide recognition for the TPI, Titleist and Acushnet brands. I am the President of LG Performance, a private Golf Performance based company specializing in the betterment of golfers in the areas of; Fitness, Screening, Biomechanics, Instruction, Mental, Nutritional, Programming, and Life Coaching. My role expands from touring professionals all the way down to the earliest of Junior Development in 3 to 4 year olds.

19 Comments

Jeff

Dec 4, 2018 at 1:51 am

A better correlation would be to compare the 15 longest hitters to the 15 closest to the tour median. It seems obvious the the 15 shortest are at a disadvantage, but the question is really whether the extra distance is a big advantage over tour average distance.

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Gregg

Dec 3, 2018 at 7:47 pm

Distance is king for off course revenue, that OR boyish good looks and killer style. I’ll take distance!

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Louie

Dec 3, 2018 at 2:33 pm

Your article is interesting but the conclusions do not necessarily fit the data. From my perspective distance does make a significant difference but course design matters. I would also look at the general stature of today’s golfer. Would be interesting to see how tall and muscular the top 15 are as compared to the lesser group. There are exceptions, like Justin Thomas.

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Scrappy

Dec 3, 2018 at 2:31 pm

Totally jumped,from driving distance to fitness, without any correlation. Did you intend to prove a connection between strength or fitness with distance or earnings? Because you totally entered a third variable without any data behind it. Shank

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TONEY P

Dec 3, 2018 at 12:55 pm

Longer hitters should make more on average. If a good golfer is hitting short irons and his competition is having to use middle irons then what is the likely result over a period of time. Even longer average golfers have a distinctive average on weekend rounds over their peers. The ability to hit irons into par 5’s and shorter clubs into par3’s give a great advantage over time in scoring, ie money. Now as far as course management , the advantage goes to the longer player. A

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TONEY P

Dec 3, 2018 at 12:53 pm

Longer hitters should make more on average. If a good golfer is hitting short irons and his competition is having to use middle irons then what is the likely result over a period of time. Even longer average golfers have a distinctive average on weekend rounds over their peers. The ability to hit irons into par 5’s and shorter clubs into par3’s give a great advantage over time in scoring, ie money. Now as far as course management , the advantage goes to the longer player.

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Raven

Dec 3, 2018 at 12:29 pm

It’s not that easy to find a simple stat to prove that distance is king as there will always be a flaw in the figures. I could plot all player finishes and distance together for each year then look to see if there is a consistent correlation over the years. But what if, for example, many of the long hitters do so because they are just better golfers? The distance figures then become irrelevant. Maybe a better method could be to find groups of players with similar playing stats (like putts gained etc.) and see if there is a distance/earnings relationship within those groups.

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Rich Douglas

Dec 3, 2018 at 11:57 am

So I ran the correlation between 2017 money rankings and 2017 driving distance. The result: -0.044494783.

This says that there is literally no correlation between rankings among the top 50 drivers of the ball. Driving distance, it is very safe to say, is NOT a predictor of earnings.

Two caveats: First, correlation does not mean cause-and-effect. There may be some other, underlying cause to all of this, but it doesn’t seem likely since there is no statistically significant correlation. Second, I used the money rankings. This is a list of gross creditable earnings, not earnings-per event. This means European players who get to the PGA tour for a minimum number of events are somewhat under-represented. But there aren’t that many and the effect isn’t that big.

Longer driving does NOT predict higher earnings. I wonder what does…?

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Vas

Dec 3, 2018 at 11:52 am

I think this is a very well done piece of work, but the variables don’t really match. A better correlation would be looking at the stats available for driving distance and money earned. This would be daunting because most long hitters use 3Ws or driving irons quite often… but if you wanted it enough, you could flesh out the necessary data. My hypothesis would be that pros who can carry drivers (and only looking at drivers) over 300y make significantly more money over the year compared to those who don’t. I think golf is going to see way more Koepka’s in the future, but the average career is going to be far shorter as a result. The new model will be to sacrifice everything for speed, and the one’s that excel will make their living between 25-35, before slowly fading away.

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- Gregg
  
  Dec 3, 2018 at 7:38 pm
  
  I like that analysis, but you got a bunch of 40 somethings now who have and continue to bomb it. Some bodies withstand time, some don’t.
  
  Reply Report comment
Rich Douglas

Dec 3, 2018 at 11:18 am

A more reliable analysis would be a correlation between driving distance ranking and money ranking.

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- Rich Douglas
  
  Dec 3, 2018 at 11:36 am
  
  Just ran the numbers. There is NO correlation between driving distance and money winnings for the top 10 drivers of the ball. There was a slightly negative correlation (-0.019848574), but that’s not statistically significant.
  
  Now, this was just with the top 10 in driving distance, not the whole list. Also, the data are slightly skewed because I used the money list instead of winnings per event. (For example, McIlroy is 39th on the 2017 money list, but he played only 14 events.)
  
  You know what they now say….drive for show, hit accurate mid-irons for dough (Strokes Gained).
  
  Reply Report comment
CrashTestDummy

Dec 2, 2018 at 3:40 am

Of course distance matters. The fact is that it is such a big advantage to hitting shorter clubs into greens. Also, one thing to note is that guys are still longer today even though the data doesn’t show it. The longest guys on PGA tour don’t always use the driver off the tee and use fairway woods or irons off the tee. The course management is better today.

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Caroline

Dec 1, 2018 at 6:40 pm

We would have had a diffident answer to the long drive making money back when Daly was in his prime had it not been for Alcohol and wife’s.

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Tommy

Dec 1, 2018 at 1:09 am

You say that today’s players are in peak condition? They are in very good specific condition for playing golf but they are far from peak. I’m watching Marc Leischman and Cameron Smith as I write….peak condition? They look more like a couple of bartenders rather than pro athletes from any sport. We have naturals like DJ, Tony Finau, Brooks, et al, but even the “15” are nowhere near peak. With the amount of time it takes to practice and play, professional golfers don’t even have the time to get in peak condition. Soon though, now that the conditioning has started even in many HS programs, the new crop will bring us some players in true peak condition. High intensity training for strength, flexibility, and speed will change the game again in ten years but it’s still a game of skill more than power and always will be. One day, another complete package like Tiger will show up….in PEAK condition.

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- Patricknorm
  
  Dec 2, 2018 at 11:03 am
  
  I’ll mildly disagree with your post. Yes Marc Leishman doesn’t look fit for a middle distance runner, whereas Cameron Smith does. What’s the ideal fitness level for a world class golfer? I said ideal, meaning a player that can earn say, top 25 status in money and rankings, play 25 tournaments a season , remain injury free, and travel multiple times across times zones. The ideal golf profile is ecto/ meso like Tiger, Cameron Champ, Dustin Johnson and Justin Rose.
  I don’t how many tournaments you’ve played where they go 4 rounds 25 times a season. If you’re 20 years old and you’ve been playing tournaments at a high level since you were 12 it’s not a big ask. But if you’ve been on tour for 12 years , your Marc Lesihman body type has made you a very good living. What I’m saying is that appearances can be deceiving . Golf is one of those sports where skill, and strength and endurance are important. In that order too.
  
  Reply Report comment
Adam

Nov 30, 2018 at 8:23 pm

Would like to see how the top 15 hitters from early/mid 2000’s during 3 year stretch compared to 2016-18. Then we could see if it was more important now than it was back then. You probably have to adjust the earnings piece as a percentage of the total purse payouts to compare the time periods but am curious what it would show.

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Gunter Eisenberg

Nov 30, 2018 at 4:21 pm

Of course longer players make more money! What a stupid question. Have you not seen Happy Gilmore?!!?

Reply Report comment
Greg V

Nov 30, 2018 at 2:30 pm

You have your statistics mixed up in the chart above.

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