The PGA Championship begins this week, and with it is the last opportunity for players to claim major championship glory for the next eight months. 156 players will all be looking to get their hands on the Wannamaker trophy, as one of the toughest fields of the year descends on Missouri.

The host course this year is Bellerive Country Club, which last hosted a major championship back in 1992. A par-70 golf course measuring 7,317 yards awaits the players this week, with large undulating greens. The ability to shape your shots from right to left will be a significant factor this week as the majority of holes require a draw off the tee for a right-hander and a fade for a left-hander at Bellerive. While as with most Rees-Jones designed golf courses, ball striking and approach play will be key areas to focus on this week.

Last year, Justin Thomas got his breakthrough major championship victory, posting a total of 8-under par to win by two strokes.

Selected Tournament Odds (via Bet365)

• Dustin Johnson 8/1
• Rory Mcilroy 12/1
• Justin Thomas 14/1
• Brooks Koepka 20/1
• Jason Day 20/1
• Jordan Spieth 20/1
• Justin Rose 22/1

There are only four men ahead of Jason Day (20/1, DK Price $9,000) in the betting market this week, yet DraftKings has him as the 12th most expensive player which makes him an attractive value play from the top of the board. Day has the best short game in the world at this moment, but he’s struggled in 2018 with his irons.  It wasn’t until his ninth event of the year at the Travelers Championship that he gained more than a stroke against the field with his approach play, but since then his iron play has been very sharp, culminating with him finishing fifth for Strokes Gained-Approaching the Green last week at Firestone.

With his iron play seemingly straightened out, Day enters this week as a serious threat as his short game has been remarkable all year. The Australian hasn’t lost strokes around the green in a single event all season, and the last time Day lost strokes on the greens in a tournament was 18 months ago. It’s this short game that has allowed him to win twice in 2018 despite his ball striking being off. Now with his iron play an asset once again, combined with his bulletproof short game, he looks sure to be in the mix at Bellerive this week and at just $9,000, the Australian looks very much underpriced at the top of the board.

A long golf course that demands a right to left shot shape off the tee should bring out the best in Bubba Watson (60/1, DK Price $8,000). The American has three victories to his name in 2018, and after his expected no-shows at both the U.S. Open and the Open Championship over the summer, it’s time for Watson to roar again at a major championship.

Watson is ranked third for Strokes Gained-Off The Tee over his last 50 rounds, and on a golf course where he can hit his patented fade off almost every tee, he can make things very easy for himself this week. Despite his feast or famine results over the year, Watson has predictably excelled on golf courses where he has had success in the past. The American was T5 at Augusta and won at both Riviera and TPC River Highlands. Bellerive is another golf course that should suit Watson’s game. Watson was ranked 97th in the world when he claimed a T28 finish at Bellerive at the 2008 BMW Championship. He is a vastly superior player now than he was then and I’m taking him to defy his odds and claim his third career major championship.

Another left-hander that Bellerive should suit is Phil Mickelson (80/1, DK Price $8,300). Fresh from the dance floor, Mickelson showed a lot of positives at Bridgestone, particularly with his approach play. Mickelson ranked eight last week for Strokes Gained-Approaching the Green, and at Bellerive, he should be able to find more fairways allowing his irons to do more damage than they did at Bridgestone.

Mickelson has been quiet since his spectacular win in Mexico earlier this year, but despite not threatening to win since then he has performed solidly, claiming six top-25 finishes in his subsequent ten events. As well as his iron play looking in good shape, his putting in 2018 has been excellent, and he sits second for Strokes Gained-Putting this season. In 2008, Mickelson claimed a top-20 finish at this course, and he looks an excellent price to go well once more at Bellerive.

Recommended Plays

• Jason Day 20/1, DK Price $9,000
• Bubba Watson 60/1, DK Price $8,000
• Phil Mickelson 80/1, DK Price $8,300