Much has been written about junior golf and scheduling. I wanted to go beyond the speculation and carefully examine the data; what does it take to win at the AJGA level? How hard are the golf courses? What are other juniors doing? What is the best advice for building a junior schedule? If you’re interested in these answers, then read on!

To help the junior golfer, their families and instructors, I took the time to crunch numbers behind the AJGA. Here’s what I found when examining the numbers for 2017:

Junior All Stars

For Junior All-stars we found the average winning per round score for boys was 69.97 and the average 10th place score per round was 72.95. The average yardage for these events was 6599 and the average course rating was 73.35. The average grad year of a winner was 2019. This means to win; the average boy had a tournament handicap of approximately +3.

For Junior All-stars for girls, we found the average winning score per round to be 71.1 and the average score per round for 10th place was 74.9. Girls on averaged played courses which were 5751 yards long with a course rating of 71.95. These means to win; the average girl would need a handicap of about scratch in tournaments. The average graduation year of a winner was 2020.5.

AJGA Previews

For Preview tournaments, we found that the boy winners averaged 72.81 per round. The 10th place boy averaged 76.6 per round. The average course was 6484 long with a course rating of 71.77.

For girls we found that the winners averaged 75.6 per round. The 10th place girl averaged 83.11 per round from an average yardage of 5610 with a course rating of 73.08.

AJGA Open Events

The average winning score per round was 69.46. The average 10th place score per round was 72.75 on an average length of 6849 and slope of 71.9. For girls the average winning score per round was 69.36. The average 10th place score per round was 74.34. The average course was 5769 yards with a slope of 70.7.

Note on Junior Girls Golf

In my previous article titled, “In-depth analysis of the early signing period for NCAA Division 1 Women’s Golf,” I note that the scoring differential of the players within the top 40 in the class was -4.01 compared to 9.26 which is the overall average for Division 1 Golf. The data collected here demonstrates these differences; winners at AJGA previews are scoring approximately 8 shots better than the person finishing 10th. While at AJGA Open events the number is closer to 5. This numbers highlight the crop of young talents women who are developing in junior women’s golf.

Rounds Under Par

• In total there were 1698 rounds under par by boys in 2017
• In total there were 454 rounds under par by girls in 2017

Please note that when these numbers are compared at random to years since 2003, and then adjusted for the number of events, it demonstrates that junior golf has not really gotten much better over the past 15 years. Instead it is about the same.

Major Takeaways from analysis of AJGA Events

1. Remember that tournaments are not the only way to test your game; use random practice (and maybe even some responsible gambling) at your local course to simulate tournament conditions and learn to win
2. Play a reasonable distance day to day: so many young people are playing golf at their home golf course from “the tips.” Our data suggests that 15-year-old boys should be practicing from about 6500 yards, while 15-year-old girls should be playing 5800 yards. 16-18-year-old boys should be practicing from about 6800 yards while 16-18-year-old girls should be practicing from about 6000 yards.
3. Learn to Break Par: to win at Junior Golf, it is likely going to take the ability to break par (or come very close). Boy golfers serious about playing Division I golf must likely have home course handicaps in the range of +3 or better. This is also the case for girls who want to compete at the highest level of women’s golf. If you play at an extremely difficult course, don’t be afraid to play very short until you are able to shoot in the mid 60’s. Like any skill, breaking par takes time and practice.

I also took time to examine the schedules of 20 junior golfers. I looked at two groups; players ranked between 1-10 in Junior Golf Scoreboard and players ranked 500-510. When looking at the top 10 players in Junior Golf Scoreboard, they played an average of 6.3 events per year/18 total rounds compared to an average of 15 events/30 total rounds for players with an average rank of 505. This data is somewhat misleading because the best juniors are playing a schedule which include major amateur tournaments which are not recorded on Junior Golf Scoreboard and further analysis suggests that they are playing a total tournament schedule of about 15 events per year.

The gap in junior golf between the best players and everyone else is closing; the top 10 players in Junior Golf Score Board accumulated 10 wins, whereas the players ranked 500-510 had 8. Both are breaking par a considerable amount of time and have net scoring differentials at or below 0, making them approximately 72.5 averages or better in tournament golf. The differences to not are the best players are breaking par more often (50 percent of the time compared to 23 percent) and shooting in the 80’s far less (2/188 rounds compared to 30/308 rounds). However, the best players are also making specific schedule; only 20 percent of the top 10 junior golfers played an event in December or January (both played in South Florida), compared to 70 percent of players ranked between 500-510 who often played in worst climates during colder months which often result in poor scores.

The best players play a schedule where they have proper time to prepare for events and rarely play leading up to events. A typical schedule would include an event in February (typically an AJGA Invitational), an event in April (Sage Valley) and then no golf until mid-June or July when the players have had time to finish school and properly prepare for summer golf.

Taking time off is an important distinction in the scheduling of the very best players; they allow themselves time for not only rest but also for digestion of the skills and to build new skills. Too many junior golfers and their families have been taken by skillful marketing that suggests playing tournaments is very important for the scholarship process when the data and feedback from coaches suggest otherwise.

Based on the data collected and my own personal experience, here is some advice for junior golfers and their families trying to build a schedule:

1. The schedule should have between 8-15 tournaments. It is not important to travel far and if money is tight, put money towards a membership at a course rather than events.
2. For people north of the Mason-Dixon Line, apply the 2-month Rule; don’t play your first summer tournament until your home course has been open and playable for 2 months and you have played at least 20 rounds.
3. Quality > Quantity. Choose a schedule which will allow you to not only properly prepare but compete during a time without distractions like major tests.
4. Use high school golf to build competitive experience. Contrary to myth, almost all the best juniors play high school golf.
5. Avoid tournaments in December and January; not only is the weather statistically the worst, but new NCAA rules do not allow coaches to recruit off campus during December.