Opinion & Analysis

Carney: Who will win the Ryder Cup? It’s all about the BIG GUYS

Published

12 years ago

Sep 20, 2014

Come Friday, when the U.S. faces Europe in the 40th Ryder Cup, I’ll be watching through Irish eyes. Paul McGinley’s eyes.

I won’t be worried about how the captain’s picks are doing.

I won’t be thinking, What if we only had Billy Horschel!

I won’t be trying to figure out what “pods” Watson is putting together or how his rookies are faring.

That’s not how McGinley will be judging things. He’ll be looking at “the big guys.”

A while back I had a chance to talk to the European captain at length about the matches. One thing he said then has stuck with me.

Why, I asked, had the Europeans had been so successful of late against the Americans, winning 7 of 9 and 5 of the last 6 Matches. They have won, or tied to retain the Cup 10 of the last 14 Matches!

McGinley answered quickly. The reason, he said, is because “our big guys” — he mentioned Poulter — are playing better than “your big guys”— no names. The top Europeans players, McGinley said, were scoring 3, 3.5, sometimes 4 points. The top Americans averaging only 1 or 1.5 points.

It’s not quite that cut and dried. If we count the “big guys” as major winners and those who have played the Ryder Cup as if it were a major (such as Lee Westwood, Poulter and Steve Stricker), not all of the Europeans scored that well in Chicago. Westwood, Luke Donald and Sergio Garcia were just 2-2-0, and Graeme McDowell was 1-3, but Poulter (4-0) Justin Rose (3-2) and Rory McIlroy (3-2) carried the day. On the U.S. side, “big guy” Mickelson was 3-1, but Jim Furyk (1-2-0), Tiger Woods (0-3-1) and Stricker (0-4-0) undermined the strong showing by Jason Dufner, Keegan Bradley and the Johnsons, Zach and Dustin. (Zach has been an exceptional “big guy” on the U.S. side).

In 2010, Woods and Stricker were good (3-1), but veterans Mickelson (1-3) and Furyk (0-2-1) were not. On the other side, Poulter and Donald were 3-1, McDowell and Miguel Angel Jimenez both 2-1. Mickelson became the “losingest” American in the Ryder Cup. He’s now 14-18-6. Woods is 13-17-3. Those are big guys with little records.

Look at these averages from the last four Ryder Cups matches for veterans on this year’s sides. For the Cups they’ve played in, here are European “big guy” point averages:

Poulter: 3.7
Rose: 3.0
McIlroy: 2.5
Westwood: 2.4
Garcia: 2.3
McDowell: 2.0

And for the U.S.:

Z Johnson: 2.2
Mickelson: 1.6
Furyk: 1.5
Stricker: 1.2

If you add Hunter Mahan, his average over two sessions is 2.3.

We had very close finishes in the last two Cups (14.5 to 13.5 in 2010 and 2012), but I have no doubt that McGinley believes that in the end, his “studs” made the difference. The “A” flight has to lead the “B” flight. Not the other way around.

The Americans don’t talk that way.

“The Ryder Cup is getting desperate for the United States,” former captain Paul Azinger said this month. “Tom Watson is going to have to pull a rabbit out of the hat.”

The rabbit Azinger would have pulled, he made clear, the one Watson did not, was Chris Kirk.

“He is hot and I like hot players.”

In 2008, when Azinger’s squad punished the Euros 16.5 to 11.5, I remember someone pointing out that American rookies scored 4.5 of the 5.5 needed on the final day.

“Maybe going with rookies over experience is not such a bad idea,” posted one happy American fan.

Not for McGinley. I’m sure he wants all the hot players he can get and if they’re rookies, that’s fine. But his view of captain Nick Faldo’s 2008 debacle would be the play of Padraig Harrington (0-3-1), Garcia (0-2-2) and Jimenez (0-2-1), undoing the good that Poulter (4-1-0) McDowell (2-1-1) and Rose (3-1-0) had done. (He told me that a captain’s motivational ability was a second key factor and praised Sam Torrance energetically. He didn’t mention Faldo).

This year, the European big guys may be feeling just a bit more pressure, and the Americans less, because finally the Euros are favored. It’s the best thing that could happen to the U.S. side, especially under Watson, who I think adds to the weight the Americans carry — he’s not the loosest guy in the world — and American players tend to put awful pressure on themselves when they’re favored.

I think McGinley senses this could be a problem. His recent reference during a press conference to a great Dublin football team losing inexplicably to a lousy one reminded me of Lou Holtz, when he coached at Notre Dame, reminding the press how good that Akron team could be, before the Irish beat them 52 to 6.

“That’s just an illustration when you are talking about top-level sport, these things happen. And that’s always a worry.”

But McGinley is betting that if Poulter, Rose, Westwood, McDowell and McIlroy play with the their usual Ryder Cup passion, it won’t.

McGinley will do all he can to keep the mood light; no one has a lighter touch when necessary. But his approach won’t change.

No rabbits, no hats for the European captain.

It’s all about the big guys.

TV Times for the Ryder Cup

Thursday, Sept. 25

9 a.m. – 1 p.m. (Golf Channel)

Friday, Sept. 26

Session 1 (Four-ball): 2:35 a.m. (Golf Channel)
Session 2 (Foursomes): 8:15 a.m. (Golf Channel)

Saturday, Sept. 27

Session 1 (Four-ball): 3 a.m. (NBC)
Session 2 (Foursomes): 8:15 a.m. (NBC)

Sunday, Sept. 28

Singles: 6:36 a.m. (NBC)

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Bob Carney

Bob Carney is a Contributing Editor at Golf Digest, writing for the magazine, its web site and sister publication Golf World. He’s an avid golfer and a single-digit handicap who has earned awards for his coverage of the industry and recreational golf. He is co-author, with Davis Love Jr. and Bob Toski, of How to Feel a Real Golf Swing. Prior to joining Golf Digest, Carney wrote for the Bergen (NJ) Record and contributed stories to People Magazine and Time, among others. He earned a B.A. From University of Michigan, attended Columbia University Journalism School, and served as a Peace Corps Volunteer in Thailand, where he managed to get in one or two rounds of golf.

14 Comments

Jafar

Sep 25, 2014 at 3:22 pm

Europe will choke. They’re filled with a bunch of pansies 😛

And there’s no extra incentive to beat a team with Tiger Woods. Instead the USA has the underdog role of beating the #1 in the world.

Reply Report comment
Bollix

Sep 23, 2014 at 3:18 am

The US might steal this one, I reckons

Reply Report comment
Bill

Sep 22, 2014 at 9:16 am

The Ryder Cup is the best display of world golf competition..It’s great viewing and every match means something. Love the passion that goes into it from both sides. Names don’t mean all that much, the hot hand can turn it around. The Europeans have the name talent this time but we had it the last two Ryders and we know what happened.

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Knalleich

Sep 22, 2014 at 4:42 am

If you are watching through McGinley’s eyes, why would the thougth “What if we had Billy Horschel” ever even cross your mind?
Also the players on each side you call “Big Guys”, the U.S. big guys at the moment are for example Stricker and Mickelson. Both are getting old, one even plays a limited amount of events, the other hasnt really played well all year and on the other side you have McIlroy and Garcia who play great all year.
Why does it matter how many majors any of these players won 5 years ago?
Right now McIlroy is big, Mickelson isnt in my oppinion.
And how is McDowell or Rose an european big guy right now and kaymer isnt???

Reply Report comment
Dave

Sep 21, 2014 at 7:04 pm

Come on people this is ryder cup! It’s not about who you think will win its about backing YOUR country/team ! Let’s go USA!!!!!!

Reply Report comment
- Rwj
  
  Sep 21, 2014 at 10:06 pm
  
  …and fantasy football players should only choose players from their state or city
  
  Reply Report comment
Carl truitt

Sep 21, 2014 at 4:50 pm

Mods….why delete all the previous comments?

Reply Report comment
- Rich
  
  Sep 22, 2014 at 4:18 am
  
  Because they might have hurt everybodies feelings. Plus they finally decided to edit the first line of the article because it was wrong so most of the comments wouldn’t have made sense.
  
  Reply Report comment
Joseph

Sep 21, 2014 at 10:54 am

Come on. Horschel chunked a shot on the last hole to lose the tourney the day before Watson had to make his picks. Kirk arguably might have been a solid pick. I’m so tired of hearing about how much the Europeans love this event and play more as a team than the US. There is no magic formula. To me it’s simple, just play better golf over a 3 day day period than your opponent.

Reply Report comment
- James Brown
  
  Sep 21, 2014 at 7:29 pm
  
  You and captain watson share the same philosophy. I believe it is that simple but I also believe that team USA shows up with all stars and gets beat by a TEAM of players with far less major wins or total tour wins. I think the USA needs to approach the Ryder cup like Herb Brooks did for the 1980 Olympics. Azingers adjustments were a start in the right direction. It’s not about getting the best players, it’s about getting the right players for the different formats.
  
  Reply Report comment
Dan

Sep 21, 2014 at 10:21 am

I want America to win but Europe seems to have the better team. Plus the European players seem to enjoy the team event much more than the Americans. I think that’s a huge advantage.

Reply Report comment
Christosterone

Sep 21, 2014 at 9:58 am

My captains picks wouldve been:
Kirk
Horschel
Moore

Reply Report comment
- John
  
  Sep 21, 2014 at 5:12 pm
  
  Completely agree, was surprised with Moore being left out considering he’s had a win, 7 top 10’s and was 39th in fedex cup this year
  
  Reply Report comment
Dick

Sep 21, 2014 at 8:43 am

It’s over before it even starts.

Reply Report comment

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Opinion & Analysis

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