It’s easy to just sit back and watch a weekly tournament and not be aware of the many things churning below the surface that really make this time of year interesting.

The FedEx Cup playoffs head to Boston this week and in the process are leaving 25 players behind from the ruin’s of The Barclays, where Hunter Mahan grabbed 2,500 FedEx Cup points with his win and vaulted to the top of the standings.

First, we’ve got a Friday start and a Labor Day finish to this week’s Deutsche Bank Championship at TPC Boston, where Henrik Stenson is the defending champion. Among the storylines, 30 players will not advance to the top-70 event at the BMW Championship at Cherry Hills in Colorado.

Second, while the FedEx Cup playoffs is going on, those who didn’t break into the top 125 are competing in the concurrently running Web.com Tour Finals to keep their PGA Tour cards. As a side note, Carlos Ortiz won the Web.com Tour’s final event this past weekend and in so doing won his third tournament of the year, becoming the first to gain PGA Tour exemption for next year via a three-win escalator. Not bad.

Third, there are still Ryder Cup slots yet to be determined and the last week to impress U.S. captain Tom Watson. So if you’re looking for storylines, the Deutsche Bank will have them in abundance.

Let’s break down some of the fantasy angles now in this week’s edition of Risk, Reward, Ruin.

RISK

TPC Boston only plays to a length of 7,214 yards. That’s not long, but it’s not short either. A par-71 course, after renovations in 2006 it became a venue where scoring was the name of the game, which happens to keep the patrons interested. Normally, hitting greens in regulation gives you an advantage for birdies, but it has been scrambling and birdie average have proven to be just as important statistics to watch. Additionally, you want a hot golfer at this point of the year. Here’s a few that could surprise or underwhelm this week.

Hunter Mahan

We’re told that Mahan’s victory at The Barclays isn’t a fluke, that he’s been building to that result for a while. His short game excelled in New Jersey and no win on Tour is a fluke. Following a T15 at Firestone and a T7 at the PGA Championship, he still wasn’t on many people’s radar. But in order to trust him the rest of the way through the playoffs, it’d be nice to see him play strong right out of the gate. Mahan is 8 for 11 in his career at the Deutsche Bank with all of his missed cuts occurring early in his career, but he still has just one top-10, a T8 three years ago, plus a T13 last year.

Zach Johnson

I’ve got one start left from ZJ and I’m considering burning it here, but I probably should hold off for another week. The problem is when Johnson gets hot, he gets really hot. His year slowed down considerably after a hot start and really hasn’t been heard from much aside from his standard low tournament at the John Deere Classic. But a T22 and two rounds in the 60s was a good sign and one that may suggest putting him on a Yahoo B bench and seeing what happens. It’s doubtful many others will have him, which could create a nice edge if he does start to go low. Has yet to crack the top 10 in Boston, but also is a risk to miss the cut.

Brandt Snedeker

Do we judge Snedeker by the missed cut at The Barclays or the four previous tournaments where he was trending upward in a big way? I think it was more of the latter, being undone by a bad second round in New Jersey. The good news is TPC Boston is a comfortable course for him since he finished in the top six in three consecutive years from 2010-12, including a T3 in 2011. Snedeker seems to play his best this time of year and he has one more chance to impress Tom Watson and make the Ryder Cup team.

Jordan Spieth

Spieth’s Ryder Cup position is locked up, but it’d be nice if he were playing at the level he’s capable of. He looked better at The Barclays, finishing T22 and posting a final-round 67 that hopefully carries through to this week. Spieth this week to me is like Jason Day last week, a huge upside hidden by rust or bad results. He’ll be in my lineup for sure, and a T4 in his debut last year (67-66-72-62) gives credence to the idea a birdie course will liven up the demands of the end of the PGA Tour season.

Patrick Reed

You can make a case for Reed slipping into one of the reward slots below, but I have a hard time justifying him over some of the bigger names. Still, the kid is a winner and has the aggressive mentality that serves itself well on a course like this. He finished T70 in his debut last year, shooting 68-72-73-69, and that’s a little discouraging, but he could also be getting hot right now. Following a T24 at the Wyndham, only weeks removed from a T4 at Firestone, Reed posted a T9 at The Barclays. It could have been more consistent, having shot 71-66-73-65, but he could be a very nice Yahoo A pick alongside one of the big and consistent names like Adam Scott or Matt Kuchar.

REWARD

When wagering on players vs. a birdie course, understand how difficult it is to score on a championship course layout. One of the reason’s the top pros score better than others down the rankings is they know just how to execute the best shot for that moment that either maximizes the potential for scoring or mitigates the chance of danger. To use the Web.com Tour as an example, and I don’t remember the player, but he tried to hit a 3-wood into a tight green only 215 yards away. A hybrid would have had the right distance, an iron could have picked the ball cleanly and left him safely on, but instead he tried to get too cute and dumped it in the woods.

Bogey or worse. There are players in the field who do just that and can’t quite execute every shot. The players below can.

Rory McIlroy

Even when McIlroy is off, like he was last week, he still can and will finish in the top 25. If you burned a start, no big deal. It was the smart move to use him. The same can be said for this week where he was the 2012 champion. There’s nothing scary about TPC Boston and McIlroy’s run of 1-1-1-22 is a great lead up. Tough courses can take a lot out of you with the mental focus required. Expect this week to be the jump-start McIlroy needs to get right to the top of the FedEx Cup standings.

Jason Day

This is exciting. I pointed out last week that Day has just the kind of huge risky upside you’d like to get hot. Well, he did. And with no health concerns, Day vaults into a reward pick this week. He should score well in Boston, where he has two top-three finishes and hasn’t missed the cut in six tries.

Matt Kuchar

The question mark last week for Kuchar was a sore back. But after a T5 at The Barclays, his doubt has been removed too. He’s backnailing top-10s, securing his 11th of the season to lead the PGA Tour. Kuchar was five strokes off the pace last year, finishing T4 after rounds of 66-66-69-66.

Rickie Fowler

No reason to hold back on Fowler again since he’s blistering hot since turning a T13 in Memphis in June. He’s now reeled off consecutive finishes of T2, T2, T8, T3 and T9. His Barclays result was undone just a tad by a 73 in round two, but overall 14 of his last 16 rounds have been in the 60s. It’s a birdie course and Fowler should have four more rounds in the 60s this week.

Jim Furyk

He just keeps rolling along even when it seems discouragement in not winning should be kicking his butt. That speaks a lot to Furyk’s maturity and how an even approach can help on the golf course. Furyk has now amassed nine top-10s this season after a T8 at The Barclays. Arguably, he’s building for a win. He owns three solo second results this year and three of his last five tournaments have resulted in t5 or better. Oh and he hasn’t missed a cut in nine tries in Boston, accruing three top-10s.

RUIN

At this stage of the game, it becomes clearer to see who is struggling and who is not. It’s easier to tell who belongs and who does not. And for fantasy owners, there’s very little need to get cute and start picking bottom feeders to fill out a lineup. Hopefully you’ve managed starts and if you are using tier A, you’re using tier B and staying far away from the rest of the alphabet, which would be the golfers below.

Tim Clark

After an opening-round round 76 and a withdrawal at The Barclays, Clark’s winning of the RBC Canadian Open is standing out as an aberration. He struggled his next six rounds of golf, performed decently at the Wyndham and then New Jersey happened. Now he heads to a TPC Boston course where he’s missed the cut the last two years, which is an ominous accomplishment given the tight field.

Ryan Palmer

Also in the missed-the-last-two-cuts department is Palmer, which is an automatic qualifier for ruin status. While his T5 at the PGA Championship was a boon for his earnings this year, the T74 at the Barclays— in which he missed a secondary cut— is making the PGA result look like an outlier he only happens into once every few months.

Cameron Tringale

It’s rare to put a kid coming off a career-best tournament in an avoid situation, but Tringale provides little in the way of enduring confidence even after his T2 at The Barclays. Granted, he is a bit of a scorer, which is nice on this course, so he could post a couple good rounds. But this is still the same course as last year, when he shot 73-67-71-70 and finished T67. It’s the same course as 2012, when he missed the cut with rounds of 73-79. It’s the same as ’11, when he MC’d (68-76). Tringale’s issue is consistency and one tournament doesn’t prove anything.

K.J. Choi

If not for two T2’s this season, I’m not sure Choi even gets in the playoffs. Since his second at the Travelers, he’s posted a T64, MC, MC, T66, MC and a T71 last week. Ouch. On top of that, his Boston results have been T41, MC, MC, T45 the last four years. Double ouch.

Ben Crane

If you’re playing bad golf, I feel bad for you, son. I got T99 problems but made cuts ain’t one. That could be a new Golf Boys song line, but unlike Bubba Watson, Rickie Fowler and Hunter Mahan, it’s Crane that can’t seem to keep the foot on the gas. Since his win in Memphis, he’s posted 74th, T37, T34, WD, WD, and a missed cut last week that placed him at T99. I’m not sure what the issues are for him at this point, but at 78th in the FedEx Cup standings, he’s looking like a chop for the top 70 cut line.

Thanks for reading. If you’d like to further discuss strategies or selections, you can comment below or find me on Twitter @bricmiller.

Best of luck!

This week’s picks:

Yahoo!

Group A: M. Kuchar (S), B. Snedeker
Group B: J. Spieth (S), J. Day (S), K. Bradley, H. Mahan
Group C: B. Todd (S), C. Hoffman
(Last week: 150 points; Summer segment: 1,483; Summer rank: 27,361; Season points: 5,249; Full Season rank: 3,995 – 95th percentile)

PGATour.com

M. Kuchar, R. McIlroy, A. Scott, J. Day
(Last week: 462 points; Season: 9,305; Rank: 4,146)

Golf Channel

Group 1: R. McIlroy
Group 2: J. Spieth
Group 3: B. Todd
Group 4: J. Overton
(Last week: $737,733; Season: $15,773,655; Mulligan: $26,980; Rank: 12,544 of 41,465)