Golf has been my faithful companion for 45 years now. My love affair with this magnificent game began in 1980 when I was just 5 years old, swinging clubs that seemed impossibly large in my small hands. Today, at almost 50 (May 24th), I can look back on a life intertwined with golf—not just as a player, but as someone who has made it my livelihood since 1996. Becoming a PGA Professional and Coach in 2009 was the culmination of a journey that started on dewy morning greens all those decades ago.

But as I reflect on my lifetime in golf, I’m struck by something that makes this game so uniquely challenging and rewarding: the sheer improbability of achievement at its highest levels. Golf is perhaps the only major sport where perfection is mathematically impossible, and excellence is statistically improbable.

Let’s explore what makes this game so humbling, yet so addictive, by examining the odds of various achievements.

Coveted Shots

The hole-in-one represents golf’s perfect moment—a single stroke that finds the bottom of the cup. For the average golfer, the odds of making a hole-in-one are approximately 12,000 to 1. For tour professionals, those odds improve dramatically to about 3,000 to 1. I’ve been fortunate enough to witness several, though my own has remained elusive.

Eagles on par-5 holes are more attainable, with odds of about 250 to 1 for average golfers. Tour professionals make eagles on par-5s at a rate of about 1 in every 23 attempts. Eagles on par-4s, however, are far rarer. For amateur golfers, the odds are roughly 6,000 to 1, while tour professionals face odds of about 1,000 to 1.

The double eagle (or albatross)—scoring three under par on a single hole—represents one of golf’s rarest achievements. The odds for an average golfer are approximately 1 million to 1. Even for professionals, it’s about 60,000 to 1. To put this in perspective, the odds of being struck by lightning in your lifetime are about 15,000 to 1—making a double eagle more than four times less likely.

Scoring

Breaking scoring barriers represents significant milestones in a golfer’s journey. Breaking 100 is achievable for most dedicated beginners, with about 55% of all golfers eventually reaching this milestone. Breaking 90 becomes more challenging, with approximately 25% of all golfers achieving this level.

The odds become considerably steeper when we look at breaking 80, with only about 5% of all golfers ever reaching this benchmark. Breaking 70 is rarer still—less than 0.5% of all golfers will ever card a round in the 60s.

And breaking 60? The odds are astronomical.

In PGA Tour history, there have been 15 sub-60 rounds in official events. These include 14 rounds of 59 and one round of 58, which was shot by Jim Furyk. There have been 9 sub-60 rounds on the Korn Ferry Tour. These rounds include a 57, a 58, and seven 59s. Notably, Cristobal Del Solar shot a 57 at the Astara Golf Championship, which is the lowest score ever in a PGA Tour-sanctioned event.

There has been only one sub-60 round on the LPGA Tour, and it was achieved by Annika Sörenstam with a score of 59 in 2001.

The odds of this achievement, even for the world’s elite, stand at about a 1-in-millions (less than 0.0001%).

Handicap

The USGA Handicap System provides another lens through which to view golf’s difficulty. Approximately 50-55% of golfers maintain a handicap above 15, meaning more than half of all dedicated players average at least 20 strokes over par. Only about 25% of golfers achieve a handicap below 10, representing consistent play at a relatively high level.

A scratch handicap (0) is achieved by only about 1.6% of all golfers—an exclusive club indeed. And a plus handicap (+1 or better), indicating a player who consistently scores below par, is the domain of just 0.1% of golfers worldwide. These players represent the elite amateurs and professionals who have mastered the game to an extraordinary degree.

Gaining a College Scholarship

For young golfers dreaming of playing at the collegiate level, the competition is fierce. For men seeking Division I scholarships, the odds are approximately 125 to 1 (about 0.80%), with only about 2,500 spots available nationwide. Division II offers slightly better prospects at about 85 to 1 (1.18%).

Women face better odds due to Title IX requirements and fewer participants overall. The chances of securing a Division I scholarship for women are approximately 65 to 1 (1.54%), while Division II opportunities come in at about 45 to 1 (2.3%). Still, these represent daunting odds for aspiring collegiate golfers.

Playing Professionally

The pyramid narrows dramatically when we examine professional golf. The odds of making it onto the Korn Ferry Tour (the primary pathway to the PGA TOUR) are approximately 5,000 to 1 (just 0.02%) for a dedicated junior golfer. For women, the Epson Tour presents similar challenges with odds around 4,000 to 1 (0.025%).

The DP World Tour (formerly European Tour) and PGA TOUR represent even steeper climbs, with odds of roughly 7,500 to 1 (0.013%) and 10,000 to 1 (0.01%), respectively. The Champions Tour (for players 50 and older) and LPGA Tour present odds of about 6,000 to 1 (0.017%) and 8,000 to 1 (0.0125%).

Winning on these tours represents another quantum leap in difficulty. The odds of winning on the Korn Ferry Tour are approximately 1 in 150 (0.67%) for tour members. On the PGA TOUR, even for card-carrying members, the odds of winning a single event are about 1 in 250 (0.4%). Multiple wins become exponentially more improbable.

The ultimate achievement—winning a major championship—presents nearly insurmountable odds. For a tour professional, the chances of winning a single major are approximately 1 in 500 (0.2%). Winning multiple majors? About 1 in 2,000 (0.05%). And the career Grand Slam—winning all four majors in a lifetime—has been achieved by only six men in the modern era: Gene Sarazen, Ben Hogan, Gary Player, Jack Nicklaus, Tiger Woods, and now, in 2025, Rory McIlroy. The odds? Roughly 1 in 100,000 (0.001%), even for a tour professional.

Despite its Difficulty, Golf is Loved Worldwide

What makes these statistics so fascinating is that despite golf’s notorious difficulty, its popularity continues to soar. In 2024, a record 47.2 million Americans played golf, either on or off the course—a 45% increase since record-keeping began in 2016. On-course participation alone reached 28.1 million, the highest number since 2008, with 28% being female and 25% being Black, Asian, or Hispanic.

Globally, approximately 68 million golfers worldwide participated in the sport in 2024. If we include all individuals who have hit a golf ball with a club, whether on or off a course, the number swells to over 106 million.

This paradox—a game so difficult that statistical excellence is nearly impossible, yet so beloved by millions—speaks to golf’s unique character. Perhaps it’s precisely because perfection remains eternally out of reach that we continue to pursue it. Or maybe it’s because golf, unlike most sports, allows players of vastly different abilities to compete fairly through its handicap system.

Whatever the reason, as I look back on my 45 years with this maddening, beautiful game, I’m struck by how the improbability of mastery has never diminished my love for it. In fact, it may be the very reason I’ve dedicated my life to golf.

In a world increasingly focused on instant gratification, golf remains steadfastly, stubbornly difficult—and that’s exactly what makes it so rewarding when we occasionally, against all odds, achieve moments of excellence.

PGA Professional Brendon Elliott is an award-winning coach and golf writer. You can check out his writing work and learn more about him by visiting BEAGOLFER.golf and OneMoreRollGolf.com. 

Editor’s note: “My Take” is an ongoing series where Brendon shares his thoughts and opinions on various aspects of the game and industry. These are Brendon’s opinions and do not necessarily reflect those of GolfWRX, its staff, and its affiliates.