Opinion & Analysis
Charles Schwab Challenge and Dutch Open: Best prop bets
Once again, this column leaves the outright betting to Matt Vincenzi and concentrates on the best of the rest – the side bets.
Most bookmakers offer prices for the PGA and DP World tours for finishing positions and that is, once again, where we are headed this week.
Here’s five of the best….
Kevin Na – Top-20 +180 (FD)
Up against a quote of just +130 from DK, one oddsmaker must be wrong and I reckon it’s the bigger quote that is out of line.
It was a close pick between previous Colonial winners Kokrak and Na, and whilst they both appear in relevant Greenbrier form, I just get the impression that Na is the player more on the up after a solid effort at Southern Hills, another track designed by Perry Maxwell.
The 38-year-old turns up at the same classic courses (he can’t compete with the length at the 7600-yard tracks) and wins here and at The Old White, alongside top finishes at Muirfield, Riviera and Copperhead all give reason to be ‘on’ should he arrive at a favoured track in any sort of form.
The best of his four weekends in a row includes a 14th place finish at The Masters whilst 26th at Harbour Town point again to his liking of trickier, wind-affected, tree-lines courses.
Unusually, Na missed the Byron Nelson, an event he does well at, but did well to finish in the top-25 in last week’s major given he was never really on top of his game.
In 14 starts at Colonial, the 2019 winner also has four top-10s, a pair of top-20 finishes and only two missed cuts and again overcame a poor driving performance in 2021, to rank top-10 in all other stats on his way to a place just outside a top-30.
Na shouldn’t have to worry too much about bombing it this week, and his tidy game and excellent recent approach stats should see him land the top-20.
Sebastian Munoz – Top-20 +200 (DK)
29-year-old Columbian Munoz is an obvious play for this type of market, having finished third here last season, and filling the same place at the Byron Nelson and Greenbrier Classic.
Not only does he bring in correlative form, but he is sneakily making his way inside the top-50 in the rankings, having been outside of the top-100 in 2019 and 66th at the start of the year.
Despite his claims in the book, his form is actually a tad better than the final figures suggest having led at Craig Ranch for three rounds, been top-3 throughout the RSM led into Sunday at the John Deere and been always prominent here in 2021.
Munoz hasn’t missed a cut in his last eight 72-hole events, efforts that include five top-30 finishes, many in events with an overall deeper field.
Over the last three months, the 54th best player in the world according to the OWGR, ranks 23rd for total driving, 9th for ball-striking, 10th for greens-in-reg and 15th for par-four performance, a huge factor in all the last five runnings of the event.
Nate Lashley – Top-20/Top-40 +600/+200 (DK)
Shock winner of the 2019 Rocket Mortgage Classic, Lashley, is never the most obvious pick in any market, but that allows us to nab a better price than he should be.
Another player that simply cannot compete on the longer courses, over the last three months he ranks 130th for distance off the tee but just outside the top-50 for accuracy, paving the way for solid approach shots and green-finding (2nd in GIR).
Impressively, the 39-year-old ranks tied-second for par-four performance over the same period, tied with Jordan Spieth and Brandon Wu and just behind the recent PGA champion, Justin Thomas.
Form wise, the pick of the season’s form is a 7th at Puerto Rico, 15th at Corales, 11th in Mexico and more significantly a pair of top-20 finishes in Texas – 18th at the Valero and a last time effort of 17th at the Byron Nelson, when a final round 64 lept his name up the board.
At the sole victory in Detroit, Lashley beat Rory Sabbatini, a player with significant form here, whilst he can also boast career finishes of tied-third at the Pheonix and Greenbrier and a top-20 in Houston, where many of the top-10 feature heavily in most Texas events.
It isn’t insignificant that Lashley’s best figures for approach and tee-to-green have been at recent events in the state, and he can add an eighth career top-40 to his Texas record.
Marcus Armitage – Top-10/Top-20 +600/+290
The DP World Tour visits the Bernardus golf course for the second time in succession, but the Dutch Open is now a pale shadow of one of the classic European Tour events, the KLM.
Still, there are profits to make and with a very open field, backing one of the best iron players on the tour will often reap rewards.
34-year-old Armitage took a long time to win his first European Tour event, some five years after his sole Challenge Tour win, but with 10 top-10 finishes and the same amount of top-20s in his last 56 starts, this is a chance for him to add yet another single-digit number to his record.
Armitage has missed just one cut in his last nine starts since a second-round 79 ruined an opening 70 in Abu Dhabi, and in that period alone has finished in the top-20 on five occasions, the highlight being a top-5 in Qatar.
A bit of a bomber off the tee, he should be able to club down enough to keep his accuracy, before building on that with the regular iron play that has seen him rank 16th for greens-in-reg over the last six months. Indeed, since March, he has tee-to-green figures of 23/1/9/7/25 and similar stats for his iron play.
This is his level, and he looks terrific value for both bets.
Richie Ramsay – Top-10/Top-20 +700/+320
It’s been a long time since Ramsay was ranked inside the top-100, but there have been enough signs recently to be with him on a track that has enough links-like quality for him to thrive.
In nine events this season, the Scot has three welcome top-30 finishes, but crucially his most recent outings have resulted in a tied-third at The Belfry and top-15 last time in Belgium.
Sadly, the effort at the British Masters has a tale.
After leading a ‘home’ event for most of the final round, Ramsay hit a poor second shot to the water at the front of the green, ultimately recording a six, and a two-shot loss.
As covered in an interview with The Scotsman, that hurt an awful lot and it is to his credit that he recovered to finish well inside the top-20 at the Soudal Open, after his opening two rounds left him in 53rd at the cut.
Ramsay’s method is to play a game of accuracy over brute power and there may be significance in the record of courses at which he plays well.
Shock 2021 winner Kristoffer Broberg, had past form at the Dunhill Links (T9), Crans (T10) and at Le Golf Nationale (T12 twice and t16) and Ramsay can at least match that with a win at Crans, two high finishes at the Links and top-five placings in France.
That may be something and nothing, and whilst the former US Amateur champion admits he is coming to the twilight of his career, finding fairways consistently will always give him a chance. Third for driving accuracy and first and sixth for greens over the last two events certainly gives hope that perhaps his last win is not behind him. Either way, he can certainly take his place in the higher echelons of this field.
Opinion & Analysis
AVL: My U.S. Amateur local qualifying experience
This past Monday, I played in the U.S. Amateur local qualifier at Rock Creek Country Club in Portland, Oregon. A full tee sheet from 7:30 a.m. to 1:55 p.m., the top 11 scores would make it to the U.S. Amateur final qualifying.
I teed off at 10:48 a.m.. With the 7:30 am tee time, you can get a feel for the leaders’ pace, and they were off and running on the challenging setup at Rock Creek.
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Getting to the highlight of the round on the par five 17th, a drive up the left side and 212 yards left to the front hole location. I took out a 5-iron with plans of middle of the green. The ball ended up 8 feet left of the hole, pin high. A slight downhill putt dropped in for an eagle 3 on the 17th. With the cut line looking to be anywhere from -2 to even par. This was the boost I had been waiting for all day.
With making par from the trees on 18, it was time to wait for a potential playoff with a posted score of one under par 71.
Three hours later, it was playoff time. 8 players for 6 spots. I made par on the playoff hole, which was good enough to advance to the U.S. Amateur final qualifying in July. USGA qualifiers sure deliver on all of the emotions in golf!
Club Junkie
Building my 2026 gamer WITB: Ranking the contenders and new putter projects – Club Junkie Podcast
The annual What’s In The Bag build is underway, and on this episode of Club Junkie, Brian breaks down the clubs currently leading the race for a spot in his 2026 gamer setup. From drivers and fairway woods to irons, wedges, and shafts, he ranks the equipment that’s performing best and explains what’s separating the front runners from the rest of the field.
Brian also heads into the workshop to discuss several putter projects currently on the bench. From head options and shaft choices to build ideas and testing plans, he shares what he’s working on and which putters could become serious contenders for the bag this season.
If you’re a gear junkie who loves equipment testing, club building, and the never-ending pursuit of the perfect setup, this episode is for you.
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Club Junkie
Tour Edge Exotics mini driver review + TaylorMade Spider ZT Max first look – Club Junkie
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I also dive into the new TaylorMade Spider ZT Max putter that was recently spotted and discuss the growing zero torque putter trend. Plus, there is a closer look at the new Project X Titan Yellow shaft showing up on the PGA Tour and what makes it different from other profiles currently out there.
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