The DP World Tour has been quiet for a few weeks, with the field assembled for the return at Muthaiga this week not featuring the tour’s biggest names.

A tad tighter than Karen, host of the last two runnings and the Savannah Classic, the names Aaron Rai and Lorenzo Gagli, winners of the last two events held here, should give enough clue to the type of player we are looking for.

Short-hitting players are at no real disadvantage, and there should be a premium on accuracy off the tee and with the irons, whilst an ability on the fast greens will help keep your place on the board.

Given the break and the variance of recent form, I’m taking a wider look at the best bet of the week and an early return on our money.

Justin Harding – First Round Leader + 3500

Defending champion (from Karen) Harding is one of the rare home players that hasn’t had a recent run out at the recent Sunshine Tour co-sanctioned events, but this course should be absolutely perfect for his accurate game.

The 36-year-old may well have had his winning-most year in 2018 when victorious four times over the Sunshine and Asian tours combined, but a year later victory at Qatar gave him an entry into that year’s first Major, where he took maximum advantage to finish 12th.

It’s fair to say that was Harding’s ceiling, but whilst he struggled to get involved again, he seemed to be reborn at Karen last year, being always prominent before winning the Kenya Open by two shots. A week later, Harding was a short-priced favourite to follow up at the Savannah Classic but collapsed on the final day, perhaps understandably, to fall from the lead to 14th.

Four top-10 finishes and a handful of top-20 placings in 2021 read well in this grade, and he has very solid claims of making a defence of his title, but whilst his outright claims are clear, he makes a considerable appeal for the first round leader at double the price, following an encouraging bank of figures.

In his last five outings, Harding has recorded three top-10 and two top-25 finishes, and crucially, in setting those up, he seems to make his move early in an event.

At the South African Open, he was 10th after day one and second at the cut (led after day three), whilst after a month’s break, he was 17th and 14th after the first two rounds at the far classier Abu Dhabi Championship.

Harding found his game early once again to lead the Dubai Desert Classic for the first three rounds, and whilst the Saudi International saw him start slowly, he was back at it at Ras al Khaimah, where he opened in 22nd but was second at halfway.

And at Kenya? Harding’s played five variations of the event, with his only outing at Muthaiga being a 63rd some ten years ago. Disappointing, perhaps, but he was in 8th place after the opening round before losing ground quickly.

Harding has had four subsequent outings at Karen, all providing further evidence of his ability to start quickly over the opening two days.

In 2018, he recorded positions of 15th and 8th. A year later, he went 24th 4th, whilst the two outings over consecutive weeks last year had him 9th and 6th (before winning), and 1st and 2nd when failing to follow up.