Instead of appearing opposite a WGC invitational event, the Puerto Rico Open takes place alongside the Arnold Palmer at Bay Hill this year.

Covered by Matt Vincenzi’s outright preview, Bay Hill has attracted not only many of the classier players but also those that may have taken an entry on the Caribbean island, and it’s a pretty rum field that faces form students this week with favouritism disputed by Matthias Schwab and Mark Hubbard, world number 163 and 267, respectively.

Whilst class has shone in three of the last five runnings, it’s fair to say that neither D.A Points, Martin Trainer, or Steve Marino could be considered in the same class as Branden Grace, Viktor Hovland or Tony Finau, the latter beating Marino in a play-off in 2019.

As befits the location, wind plays a huge part here, and whilst the cross-winds can hinder the unluckier players, Trainer commented that “it’s just a bombers course”, and renowned wind specialist Grace confirmed that ‘even with this 15-20-mile-an-hour wind, it still feels like it’s gettable out there. You can make some birdies and give yourself some chances.’

Streaky players, unexposed players looking to step up, and gnarled veterans can all make their mark here, so we’ll take a mix into the week.

Nate Lashley +4000

It’s of no harm that 39-year-old Lashley made his way through the Latinoamerica tour, finishing 8th on the money list in his first season before three victories saw him finish top of the tree in 2016 and gain his Web.com card.

2017 was a breakthrough year with a victory at the Corales in the Dominican Republic, the highlight of a season containing four further top-10 finishes, before his sole PGA Tour victory in 2019.

The six-shot victory at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit came courtesy of two rounds of 63, but whilst winning form is always of note in these low-class fields, we can take perhaps more value from another top-five finish at the Corales and an 8th place finish on his only start here when leading at halfway.

Given four of the last five winners have finished between T28 and T39 at the AT&T in the same year, Lashley’s 5th (2021) and recent T28 at Pebble read very well, with the latter supported by a ranking of 14th for driving accuracy, 10th for tee-to-green and 14th for around-the-green.

Austin Smotherman +4100

A former teammate of Bryson DeChambeau, Smotherman is another to have form on the Latinoamerica tour, winning his first professional event at the coastal 2018 Mexico Open before gaining his Korn Ferry card in 2019 and nabbing his most valuable victory so far in all-the-way fashion in Nashville two years later.

It’s not been an easy start at the top level with the rookie missing half of his eight weekends, but two of his best efforts occurred within the last five weeks with an 11th at Torrey Pines followed with a tied-33 at Pebble Beach, a hugely significant finish if history is to be believed.

At the Farmers, the 27-year-old was inside the top-10 after the first round and fought back from 38th overnight to finish just off the leaderboard, whilst at the AT&T he was 3rd and 5th after each of the opening two rounds.

Currently inside the top-25 for strokes gained off-the-tee and approach, and 40th for tee-to-green, this is a downgrade from those recent efforts; he clearly enjoys the expected conditions, and a good effort here would certainly fit in well with his, so-far short, winning profile.

Satoshi Kodaira +6600 

Japanese star Kodaira is difficult to predict but, at his best, he is a two-time Japanese major winner and a winner on the PGA Tour, a rarity in this field.

The 32-year-old has some worthy form in amidst runs of missed cuts over the last season-and-a-bit, highlights being 11th place at classic and tough Quail Hollow, followed immediately by a similar finish in the wind of Texas, a top-20 at Congaree and 36th at another classic track, River Highlands.

A decent enough spell in Japan saw him record a top-five and three top-20 finishes before an encouraging return to the PGA Tour at the start of the year with a 12th place at Waialae, having been outside the top-115 after the first round.

Once again, I’m putting faith in the Pebble form where a finish in 33rd place doesn’t show the round-by-round positions of 15th, 8th and 17th, whilst a recent missed-cut at the Honda came courtesy of an opening 78.

Whilst Kodaira has only a 49th here from two starts, he is the type to find form from nowhere – that Wells Fargo run started after four missed-cuts.

For the icing on the proverbial cake, his win at the coastal RBC Heritage links to Branden Grace, winner there in 2016 and ‘defending’ champion this week, whilst another wind supremo, Aaron Baddeley, has won and been runner-up at Harbour Town, and was joint-runner here behind Trainer.