Opinion & Analysis

Why Jordan Spieth didn’t win the 2016 FedEx Cup

Published

10 years ago

Sep 28, 2016

It was an exciting finish to the 2016 FedEx Cup Playoffs, with Rory McIlroy emerging victorious from a three-man playoff that included Ryan Moore and Kevin Chappell. It’s hard not to root for and appreciate McIlroy. I predicted that his recently improved putting, which helped him win the second leg of these playoff, would not continue. That much I had correct; it didn’t.

Rory’s putting was the worst part of his game this week, producing a negative strokes gained (0.107) and ranking him 13th of the 29 players in the field. Rarely do we see a player win an event with a negative strokes-gained number. Well done, Rory! Let’s hope for the Team USA’s sake that he saves some of that mediocre putting for the Ryder Cup.

My prediction to win the FedEx Cup was Jordan Spieth, who missed the three-man playoff by 12 strokes (I’m also a Jets fan). As you can see below, Spieth’s average daily score was 70, while the three players who tied for the lead at 12-under par averaged 67. When I compare Spieth’s strokes-gained numbers to 12-under group, 85 percent of the difference (2.55 strokes per round) came from Spieth’s long game: driving and approach shots.

Everyone has an off week, but it is my personal theory that Spieth’s long game has suffered ever since he committed to hitting the ball farther. At the end of last season, he abandoned the extended, square-face follow through that featured the chicken wing left elbow for a quicker release and rotation of the club head. The result is greater club head speed and distance, but also reduced accuracy and inconsistency. I had picked Spieth largely because I felt he had worked this way through this difficult change and was seeing greater consistency in the early rounds of the playoffs. Not so in this final week.

The PGA Tour’s strokes-gained analysis shows exactly how each of the four major parts of the game contributed to the totals, but it is very difficult to drill down to the actual cause of the strokes lost or gained in the 650+ PGA Tour stats that support these specific strokes-gained numbers. At ShotByShot.com, we look at the game somewhat differently and enable our subscribers to record the specific errors that so often tell the real story. I provide relevant Tour stats to support my points below, but highlight in RED the additional data that we are able to extract from the Tour’s ShotLink data that are NOT published by the Tour.

Driving

Note below that Spieth averaged 17 more yards off the tee this year at the Tour Championship than when he won last year, which is a meaningful increase. It could be the result of course conditions, but I doubt it. Note also that he was less accurate (fairways hit). Far more important than fairways hit or not is the relative severity of a golfer’s misses. Among Spieth’s missed fairways were five No-Shot Driving Errors, which are drives hit out of play that require an advancement shot to return to normal play. This was the same number as as the 12-under group combined.

Last year at the Tour Championship, Spieth had only one of these errors, which cost Tour players approximately 0.75 shots each.

Approach Shots

Figure_3

Obviously, Spieth’s approach accuracy was not nearly as good as last year. He hit one fewer GIR and was 2.5 feet farther from the hole – not a big deal at the 30+ foot distance. It is important that Spieth incurred one approach shot penalty (on the 200+ yard, island par-3). He had none of these in his 2015 win.

Short Game

Figure_4

Spieth has always been lauded for his short-game expertise, and it was evident in his 2015 victory at the Tour Championship where he ranked fifth in strokes gained: around the green and first in proximity around the green. Note that he was a very meaningful 2 feet closer to the hole than the 12-under group and his own performance. Of greater significance than the 2-foot proximity were his three errors. These were short-game shots (two chips/pitches and one sand shot) where he failed to get the ball onto the green and needed FOUR or more strokes to hole out. These three errors alone cost Jordan 2.8 strokes over what he would have scored if he simply hit the shots onto the green and 2-putted. Again, one cannot find these errors in Spieth’s Tour stats.

I will be interested to see what Jordan decides to work on in this offseason. I would wager that it will be further refining his new, longer, long game and perhaps rededicating himself to his short game. He certainly has the talent and the drive to do it and I expect him to be back on top in 2017.

For a complete strokes-gainenalysis of your game, log on to ShotByShot.com.

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Peter Sanders

In 1989, Peter Sanders founded Golf Research Associates, LP, creating what is now referred to as Strokes Gained Analysis. His goal was to design and market a new standard of statistically based performance analysis programs using proprietary computer models. A departure from “traditional stats,” the program provided analysis with answers, supported by comparative data. In 2006, the company’s website, ShotByShot.com, was launched. It provides interactive, Strokes Gained analysis for individual golfers and more than 150 instructors and coaches that use the program to build and monitor their player groups. Peter has written, or contributed to, more than 60 articles in major golf publications including Golf Digest, Golf Magazine and Golf for Women. From 2007 through 2013, Peter was an exclusive contributor and Professional Advisor to Golf Digest and GolfDigest.com. Peter also works with PGA Tour players and their coaches to interpret the often confusing ShotLink data. Zach Johnson has been a client for nearly five years. More recently, Peter has teamed up with Smylie Kaufman’s swing coach, Tony Ruggiero, to help guide Smylie’s fast-rising career.

25 Comments

European fan

Sep 29, 2016 at 4:41 pm

Rory may SAVE some of his mediocre putting (that I doubt the best player in the USA will not get back to his prime in putting) BUT I really think he won’t SAVE Team USA from losing to Europe.

Anyway good luck America!

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Robert

Sep 29, 2016 at 11:42 am

Great article Peter. I love analyzing numbers because it tells the whole story with facts and not assumptions.

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Topic_Monitor

Sep 29, 2016 at 11:14 am

Please refrain from using any vulgar language

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Jimmy Banks

Sep 29, 2016 at 1:44 am

time to ban MSmizzle…enough already.

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tom-tom

Sep 29, 2016 at 12:48 am

280 yrds straight down the fairway day in and day out will beat 320 yrds avg with 50% in the rough!
J.S. short game and putting would have statistically made him a better defender of the FedEx cup and possibly added two more wins this season. IMO.

Reply Report comment
Jim

Sep 28, 2016 at 4:56 pm

Because he’s using & being fit for crappy driver(s). Wake up Jordan. Get the Driver off the gear contract and there are a dozen better heads to choose from. Right shaft in a 10° bonded head & he’ll be fine

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golfraven

Sep 28, 2016 at 3:56 pm

Jordan lost it due his attitude and Rory won just because of it. Jordan was likely counting all the cash he could win while Rory just got out there and grabbed it. Some luck involved but there were some moments of genius as well. Rory had to put three times to close it off, he surely will do better this week.

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desmond

Sep 28, 2016 at 12:47 pm

I’m waiting on all the instructors on youtube to analyze Jordan’s swing … probably already up for months, years, but need last week’s critique. He can scramble around a golf course almost like no other, but it would be great if he did not need to so often — equipment? swing?

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dapadre

Sep 28, 2016 at 11:00 am

If RORS gets to be an even decent ‘constant’ putter, I mean like a B, B+ putter, the rest can simply forget it. From tee to green NO ONE matches him, NO ONE, once on the green is his crutch. It surprises me actually how well he has done with with putting. Thats what made Tiger unbeatable he had the long game, the godly short game and he could do anything with the flatstick. If Rors gets there, hell will break loose.

Reply Report comment
- matzi
  
  Sep 28, 2016 at 11:09 am
  
  Well couldn’t you say the same about Adam Scott? Every week he’s like leading in tee to green. Just never been a great putter.
  
  Reply Report comment
- Jackson Galaxy
  
  Sep 28, 2016 at 4:18 pm
  
  Same thing applies to DJ and Bubba. It’s easier said than done.
  
  Reply Report comment
Greg V

Sep 28, 2016 at 9:34 am

Jordan working on the chicken wing? I don’t see a change.

Sometimes you just got to dance with the one that brought you.

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desmond

Sep 28, 2016 at 9:16 am

Still, Rory’s SG putting for the week was better than his season -.107 v -.207. It was not terrible.

In your column last week, I took Rory, you took Spieth. It happens. Perhaps Jordan needs a new Driver and evolve his stroke a bit more — too many two way misses this year.

Reply Report comment
- Peter
  
  Sep 28, 2016 at 10:03 am
  
  Good call Desmond! I hope you had some $ on it – Thankfully, I did NOT.
  You are also right about the 2 way misses.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - desmond
    
    Sep 28, 2016 at 12:44 pm
    
    Blind squirrel effect – I’m not good at picking. lol.
    
    Reply Report comment
Matt

Sep 28, 2016 at 9:07 am

Doesn’t matter what he works on. the real question is does Rory continue to work on putting becuase if he gets “good” at that no one has a chance.

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EJ

Sep 28, 2016 at 9:04 am

Jordan is an average to above average ball striker, and a streaky insanely hot putter. Once the putter goes cold ( for him) it shows his weakness. Kind of like a guard shoots 3. When on, they are deadly. When off then are just an average player.

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cgasucks

Sep 28, 2016 at 8:39 am

Why can’t guys like Spieth be totally content with their swing that gave them so much success only to change it just to approach the green with a shorter club? As a Canadian, Mike Weir is Canada’s version of Spieth, accurate, with a great short game but not the longest on tour. He changed his swing for a few extra yards and look where he is now.

Reply Report comment
- cody
  
  Sep 28, 2016 at 9:03 am
  
  weir dropped off due to a neck injury. it is well documented.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Ian
    
    Sep 28, 2016 at 9:38 am
    
    from swinging too hard.
    
    Reply Report comment
  - cgasucks
    
    Sep 28, 2016 at 10:46 am
    
    Yeah..but he changed instructors a few times (and even dabbled in Stack and Tilt). Physically he’s fine now but I don’t see him making any top 10s or making any President’s Cups teams lately…
    
    Reply Report comment
- Peter
  
  Sep 28, 2016 at 10:08 am
  
  There are so many stories of how the lure of more distance has ruined a successful player. After Ian Baker-Finch won the British Open he tried to get more distance and totally lost his game.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Jackson Galaxy
    
    Sep 28, 2016 at 4:22 pm
    
    Luke Donald was #1 in the world.
    
    Reply Report comment
AJ

Sep 28, 2016 at 8:21 am

“I will be interested to see what Jordan decides to work on in this offseason. I would wager that it will be further refining his new, longer, long game and perhaps rededicating himself to his short game.”

So work on his long and short game… not much else to work on is there? LOL

Reply Report comment
- Jackson Galaxy
  
  Sep 29, 2016 at 10:37 am
  
  Don’t forget the middle game!
  
  Reply Report comment

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Opinion & Analysis

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