In an interesting twist to the typical PGA Tour rotation, the FedEx Cup playoffs continue this week at the BMW Championship, but much farther west than normal.

Long held in the Midwest, mostly at Cog Hill outside Chicago, the venue this year falls to Cherry Hills Country Club, in the south suburbs of Denver. While we won’t get to see golf balls bouncing off bighorn sheep and huge Rocky Mountain boulders because of the lower plains locale, it will be an eventful opportunity to drive the ball in high altitude.

After wins by Hunter Mahan at The Barclays and Chris Kirk at the Deutsche Bank Championship, it’s a chance for another improbable outcome as the Tour winds its way to Atlanta for the final FedEx Cup showdown for the Top 30 at the Tour Championship. Cherry Hills is a par-71 setup with a length of 7,466 yards, putting it on the upper tier of long courses used on Tour, but the higher elevation of 5,300 feet above sea level helps it play much shorter. You have to go all the way back to 1985 for the last PGA Tour event at Cherry Hills, when the PGA Championship was held there. At least one player in the field has played the course, Phil Mickelson, who won the 1990 U.S. Amateur at Cherry Hills in the same year he won an NCAA individual title.

That was a long time ago and 24 years has changed his game into a major champion and back into someone struggling to find the right touch from week to week. It’s a different feeling for Jordan Spieth and Hideki Matsuyama, who are coming into their prime and played the 2012 U.S. Amateur at Cherry Hills. Additionally, Cameron Tringale and Morgan Hoffman have experience in Colorado, having played the 2009 Palmer Cup on the venue.

The top 70 in the field don’t need any added incentive to play well, but inclusion in the top 30 means playing all four majors next year. Now it’s time to see what this course means for fantasy purposes with only two weeks left in the season. It’s the second-to-last edition of Risk, Reward, Ruin.

RISK

Hopefully you have two starts left from everyone in the field, but if not, you’re probably only out of one or two people, like I am with Rory McIlroy. I only have one start left from Adam Scott and Zach Johnson too. If I were to strategize among those, I’d save Scott for the finale and use ZJ this week, given he’s been getting progressively better and peaked this time of year last season by winning the BMW at Conway Farms.

But it also makes sense just to fire away and pick the best left from the top 30, especially since the odds would only increase that your opponent would pick the same way. Think of this week as Saturday moving day. If you’re behind, as I am after watching the current leader go from 250 points back six weeks ago to ahead by 40, then you need to make a push and find someone like a Chris Kirk who won’t be in many lineups and can net huge bonus points.

But golf is also the hardest fantasy sport to predict. You can look at trends and course history, but still anyone can turn it on for four days. That’s why the Deutsche Bank was littered at the top with Kirk, Billy Horschel, Geoff Ogilvy and others. McIlroy may be the best and had a great tournament, but everyone else has equal shot of winning a tournament. And now, for this week’s risks.

Ryan Moore

Definitely some risk to Moore this week, who seems to have slowed since a run of T5, T7, T12 and T8 preceding the PGA Championship where he finished tied for 40th. A missed cut at The Barclays and a 73rd finish at TPC Boston likely has him outside Tom Watson’s Ryder Cup picks. It may be Moore felt the pressure to perform and faded and will now have to live with disappointment, or he’ll come out possessed and show Watson why he should have been included. This is conjecture since at the time of writing this, we’re still five hours away from the public declaration of U.S. selections.

Zach Johnson

I mentioned last week that Johnson was trending back up after a lull in the middle part of his year. After a T16 at TPC Boston, it’s much safer to roll with Johnson this week, especially since his troubles with distance will be helped this week by elevation. On a tight course, Johnson’s precision will be key. He ranks eighth in driving accuracy and 17th in the new Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green category. His putting is usually a matter of feel and he seems to be getting that touch back for scoring.

Bubba Watson

Huge upside for Bubba this week, who can take aim at the green on the drivable par-4 1st, which measures at 346 yards. I wonder if he won’t hit one 400 yards with the altitude. That will be a huge advantage on several long par-5s, one which tops out at 633 yards. If he can take advantage of scoring opportunities there, it will be him ahead of the field on the more precise holes. Watson is almost always a risk though, given that you just don’t know if he’ll try to get too creative, which can lead to bogeys. He finished TPC Boston solid with rounds of 69-67, putting him at T29. I’m hoping he rises to the top here.

Hideki Matsuyama

As mentioned, Matsuyama has experience at Cherry Hills, and while Spieth has far less risk attached to him, the youngster from Japan has similar upside with a bit more stealth for fantasy purposes. An opening-round 73 and a final-round 74 at TPC Boston derailed his middle rounds of 69-68. Matsuyama finished T57, but he’s taken big steps this year in learning how to win and make the cut each week. With four rounds to play with, he’ll throw at least two low scores into the mix and ideally more with a statistical makeup that ranks fifth in SG: T-G.

John Senden

Quietly having a very good year, Senden has put up a T22 at The Barclays, followed by a T5 at the Deutsche Bank. He’s just calmly hitting fairways, hitting greens and scrambling when needed. Senden’s not only won this year, but the Aussie has put up five top-10s and rebounded from a rough patch with his recent play. He may not be the most flashy guy, but he’s solid and doesn’t do much wrong. That could be a good thing this week, especially if paired in Yahoo C with a good complement.

REWARD

Owning starts from the chalk can be huge to hold off a challenger. Having McIlroy availability is far more valuable than Webb Simpson. It doesn’t mean you won’t use Simpson, but if picking between the two, you go No. 1 golfer in the world all day, and that doesn’t matter at what position you’re sitting. If you get into an internal discussion over Simpson or Horschel, the argument changes a little bit. So make sure you have chalk slotted somewhere and take calculated risks after that.

Rory McIlroy

McIlroy’s streak is now 1-1-1-22-5 for his last five tournaments. Just keep rolling with him. He’s killing greens in regulation, putting also his approaches close to pin. That’s helped him post low round after low round. I really shouldn’t have to say more.

Jason Day

His thumb injury is now a thing of the past and Day is playing out of his mind right now. With top-10s in The Barclays and at TPC Boston, the Aussie is sitting pretty and trending upward. While he didn’t close strong on Labor Day, Day’s aggressive mentality and competitive streak is a big plus this week as play starts on a short week of rest. The greens are tight this week and Day’s putting has been stellar. He was tops in the category at the Deutsche Bank, sinking 67 of 71 putts from inside 10 feet.

Adam Scott

In many ways, Scott is flying under the radar. But his T16 in Boston continues a great streak of 1st, T4, T9, T5, T8, T15, T15 over his last eight starts. If he doesn’t open with a 73 in Boston, Scott likely finishes within the top five and challenges for a win. Expect him to be on point this week. Scott ranks fourth in SG: T-G.

Sergio Garcia

Rested after taking a week off, Garcia is a must-pick for Yahoo C, which is why he gets listed here. He hasn’t been sterling his last two starts with a T35 at the PGA Championship and a T57 at The Barclays, but prior to that Garcia had three consecutive second-place finishes. Rest and a little tinkering could be just what needed and probably factored into his decision to skip Boston. He’s too good tee to green to have a third sub-par tournament.

Jim Furyk

He’s a machine. Furyk’s swing maturity just allows him to go out and play the course and not think about much else. Even though he finished with a T23 in Boston, it’s one “poor” result in a stretch of fine play. You really could make the case that Furyk’s had the best season Tour of non-winners. He hasn’t missed a cut in 19 starts, earned 16 top-25s in those events and amassed nine top-10s, including three 2nds. He’s in form and knows how to win the FedEx Cup, and that counts for a lot.

RUIN

This is a no-cut event, which should factor into your thinking. Unfortunately, both Brendan Todd and Charley Hoffman missed the cut in Yahoo C last week. That hurt dearly on the weekend when my opponent, who used Todd and Jimmy Walker, picked up a guaranteed advantage. Having a safety net this week is nice if you do plan to shake things up radically. After all, a bad opening round can turn into a winning tournament, just as Kirk did at TPC Boston. So with no cut, you need to look for those guys who are struggling to score at the moment. And since course history is also out for this tournament, it shouldn’t be hard to go back and look at the past several weeks to see just who snuck in the top 70 and who is actually a contender.

Steven Bowditch

Decent sub-par totals in the first two FedEx Cup events for Bowditch, who currently sits at 45th in the standings. The trouble still comes from looking at the overall slate of his yeart, which includes 11 missed cuts. While he won’t have to worry about that this week, nor have his last three tournaments been that bad, he should be outmatched by just about anyone you put him up against in a head-to-head comparison. Go with the chalk first.

Chesson Hadley

Hadley is well on his way to earning PGA Tour Rookie of the Year honors, aided heavily by a win at the Puerto Rico Open. But he’s also had his struggles, missing 10 of 11 cuts not long after that. He got into the playoffs and barely made the cut to finish 70th (74-69-70-78), good enough because of his points total to move on for another week. A T9 at the Deutsche Bank on rounds of 66-73-67-69 flashed his potential, but there’s no way you can trust him this week. At 57th in the standings, he’s likely gone after this week.

Matt Jones

Just slipped into the field at 67th, Jones has been riding the points of a playoff win at the Shell Houston Open for much of the year, which is still his only top-10 of the season. He missed the cut at The Barclays and tied for 78th after just three rounds of play (69-75-79) at the Deutsche Bank due to an MDF. Nothing enticing about him this week.

Stuart Appelby

Appleby surprised everyone by coming in T2 at The Barclays, which catapulted him in FedEx points up the standings. He came back down to earth at TPC Boston, where he missed the cut. He still sits at 26th in standings thanks to that first tournament, but he’s in big danger of having his bubble burst for the Tour Championship. That missed cut is now four in Appelby’s last six starts. Hardly reliable.

Erik Compton

Similar to Appelby, Compton parlayed a T19 at The Barclays into sticking around a few more weeks. He’s in because of a T2 at the U.S. Open, but Compton has little else to brag about this year. A missed cut in Boston is now his fourth in his last five starts. At 62nd in the FedEx Cup standings, he’s done after this week barring a miraculous and unlikely performance.

Thanks for reading. If you’d like to further discuss strategies or selections, you can comment below or find me on Twitter @bricmiller.

Best of luck!

This week’s picks:

Yahoo!

Group A: H. Stenson (S), B. Watson
Group B: J. Furyk (S), J. Day (S), Z. Johnson, H. Matsuyama
Group C: S. Garcia (S), J. Walker
(Last week: 116 points; Summer segment: 1,599; Summer rank: 30,636; Season points: 5,365; Full Season rank: 4,947 – 94th percentile)

PGATour.com

R. McIlroy, J. Day, J. Furyk, A. Scott
(Last week: 711 points; Season: 10,016; Rank: 3,825)

Golf Channel

Group 1: R. McIlroy
Group 2: J. Furyk
Group 3: R. Moore
Group 4: G. Ogilvy
(Last week: $370,787; Season: $16,211,083; Mulligan: $26,980; Rank: 12,941 of 41,550)