Despite Colin Jost being so over the expression That was not on my bingo card, so much of what happened on Saturday at Riviera was precisely defined by that 2026 catch-phrase. Seasoned professionals faltered while young amateurs soared. Leaders posted par rounds while afterthoughts amassed birdie after day-three birdie. What transpired set up the potential for the best duels in USWO history. In the mixing bowl are the world’s number one, former champions, former contenders, and a host of the game’s top names.

Over the first three days, Riviera has played more like a golden-age gem than it ever has in modern times. Players are using greenside slopes and fairway cambres to propel the ball into proper position. Green speeds are manageable, yet daunting from the absolute worst place (read: above) in relation to the hole location. Nothing is unfair (fingers crossed for the same in two weeks on Long Island) and everything is earned.

Could it be Nelly, or Charley, or Sei Young or In-gee? How about Gaby or Jennifer, Nasa or Ruoning? All have contended before in the U.S. Women’s Open, but only In-gee Chun has raised the Semple trophy in triumph. A Hollywood sound stage is set for a dramatic finish, but prior to the conclusion, let’s revisit the five things that we learned on Saturday at the U.S. Women’s Open.

Saturday Thing One: Nelly Korda is tied at the top

If it were anyone else, after consecutive rounds of 67, the dam would break. That’s not the case with Korda. If anything, we expect that she might go lower on Sunday, to the tune of 65, and walk off with her first U.S. Women’s Open title.

We know that ruling bodies and host clubs adore name champions. They salute all victors, but the success of a current top golfer, a media darling, or a proven veteran serves to legitimate and venerate the event and the venue. The USGA and Riviera would be thrilled to have Nelly Korda as a champion.

What will propel the three-time major titleist to a fourth grand slam victory? Another 67, for starters. Reaching double-digits under par would place the Floridian in a marvelous space. It would require Sei Young to keep pace, and would demand that all the trailers post 66 or better.

Saturday Thing Two: How about those amateurs?

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Those are the holes that Maria Jose Marin (68), Aphrodite Deng (68), and Asterisk Talley (66) birdied on Saturday. That’s a minus-ten ringer score for the trio. As we sleep one more sleep before the final round, consider that Marin and Deng are four strokes back of the leaders, while Talley is five shots behind. To have three amateur golfers within striking distance of the top ladder rung is heady stuff. Can Talley possibly follow up her minus-five with another one on Sunday? Even that might not be enough. How about Marin and Deng. Can they drop a mid-60s scorecard on the professionals, and throw a scare into them? Our intuition suggests no on both counts, but the potential for a top-five amateur finish is certainly in the cards.

Saturday Thing Three: the Korean Kontingent

Sei Young Kim and In-gee Chun would win any partner event this week, given their current form. Kim will tee off with Nelly Korda in the last game, and she will have a front-row seat to Chun’s performance, as In-gee will play in the game just ahead. Of the two, Sei Young appeared to have less control over her shots, as a substantial number of spproach shots turned inordinately left.. Time and again, her short game bailed her out of the bogeytown prison, although she did miss a fair number of short putts. Dumbo (aka Chun) seemed more in control from tee to green, but will need to channel her early-2020s self to insert herself into the narrative.

Saturday Thing Four: Kupcho’s Komeback

It’s not like she went very far away, but Jennifer Kupcho’s 69 on day three had to be gratifying. The Colorado native and Wake Forest alumna was in fine Friday position to make a statement and expand her lead. She had posted 66 on Thursday, but fell off form on day two with 73. There were 67s and 68s at Riviera  that day, but Kupcho’s birdie production fell from seven to two, as her bogey line increased from two to four. She reduced the bogey output on Saturday, and redoubled birdies to four. She finds herself precisely one shot off the lead, in a tie with In-gee Chun, her Sunday walkabout mate.

What will Kupcho need on day four, to provide an opportunity for victory? Fairways and greens always help, but that electric, day-one start of birdies on holes one, two, and three will be massive. Stay on the proper side of the green-center bunker on six, and survive the dautning holes. Kupcho has made bogey on 13 and 15 twice in three days. Should she come to the final stretch in a place of power or hope, those two holes will test her worth and mettle. Kupcho has also played the closing triumvirate of holes in par or better, each of the three days. That sort of clutch-time performance will stand her well on day four.

Saturday Thing Five: How will it all transpire?

No one expects that both of the top two will struggle on Sunday. One of them will shoot 68, to reach nine-under par. That means that the trailers will have to light up the western sky with fireworks, to keep pace. There is a golfer with nine, top-ten finishes in major championships, who has never won a major. That golfer is Nasa Hataoka, and she is poised to break through and make a victory out of her tenth, top ten finish at a major. Hataoka finished T2 and T4 in this event in, respectively, 2021 and 2023. A missed cut in 2025 was a shock to the system, but the Japanese golfer will bounce back in style and claim the title.