Opinion & Analysis
Is 2013 the year for Tiger?
With two wins in just four starts on the PGA Tour in 2013, Tiger Woods could hardly have made a better start to a season.
Tiger is in the field this week at the Bay Hill Invitational, where he will be defending his title from last year and also have a chance to win the tournament for the eighth time. But despite his history there, we know it’s the majors that really have Tiger’s attention. He’d gladly trade his two wins and a potential win this week at Bay Hill if it meant he could walk away with a Green Jacket next month for major win No. 15, three short of Jack Nicklaus’ record of 18.
A lot has happened during the past five years for Tiger, which has made his task of winning major titles a lot more difficult. To see if Tiger has overcome these difficulties and is on the path to a major winning season, I’ve taken a look at the statistics in his previous major winning seasons to see if I could find some commonalities. I’m overlooking the years between 2010 and 2012 from a major tournament perspective because of off-course problems and injuries. His 2012 start is an indication that he’s moved past those problems on the golf course.
What I found
In every one of Tiger’s major winning seasons, he has won at least once in the first few months of the season — 1997, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008. The years he didn’t win a major — 1998, 2003, 2004 and 2009 — still saw him win a collective 16 golf tournaments. He also managed eight top-10 finishes and six top-25 finishes during those four years. He wasn’t winning the big ones, but he was coming very close.
Tiger has won twice in the first few months on Tour in 2013, including the recent WGC-Cadillac Championships against a major quality field. He leads the Tour in the most important statistic — scoring average — with an impressive 68.48. What’s even more interesting is that four out of the last five years where he most recently led in scoring average (2005 to 2009), he won six majors. Despite not winning a major in 2009, he won seven times worldwide and finished T6 in both the Masters and U.S. Open and runner up at the PGA Championship.
Not only has Tiger’s scoring average improved since 2010, but statistically he has actually strengthened his putting. In the Tour’s “Strokes Gained-Putting” statistic, he has gone from 109th in 2010 (0.033 putts gained) to 0.995 in 2013, which ranks sixth on Tour. What this means is he is gaining nearly one shot from the entire field on the putting green every tournament round he plays.
Why will 2013 be any different from the last few seasons?
Despite a few loose shots down the stretch at Torrey Pines and some errant drivers at Doral, Tiger seems to have developed a comfort level with the swing changes he’s instituted with Sean Foley. He also appears to have improved his distance control with his wedges, and his marked improvement in his short game has led to lots of par saves. Like the old days, Tiger is again finding a way to post a low number when not every part of his game firing. These are the traits of a player on top of his game and who is showing a strong mental resolve — important things for every golfer in contention at major championships.
While it’s hard to predict the weather and course conditions for the major championship venues this year, Tiger is always a threat to win at Augusta National. While he has no history at Merion, the site of this year’s U.S. Open, he finished 20th in the 2002 British Open at Muirfield, the site of this year’s Open Championship, and 39th at Oak Hill, the site of this year’s PGA Championship.
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Getting to the highlight of the round on the par five 17th, a drive up the left side and 212 yards left to the front hole location. I took out a 5-iron with plans of middle of the green. The ball ended up 8 feet left of the hole, pin high. A slight downhill putt dropped in for an eagle 3 on the 17th. With the cut line looking to be anywhere from -2 to even par. This was the boost I had been waiting for all day.
With making par from the trees on 18, it was time to wait for a potential playoff with a posted score of one under par 71.
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Troy Vayanos
Mar 21, 2013 at 7:49 pm
Thanks Nick,
Yeah the US Masters is going to be a great contest and i’m looking forward to it beginning.
I can see Tiger being in the thick of the action come Sunday.
Cheers
Nick
Mar 21, 2013 at 7:45 pm
Awesome Post Man!
Yes Tiger has been playing a lot more consistent this year and he looks a good chance to add major number 15. Probably his best chance will be will be the US Masters in April, can’t wait until it starts!