My annual Masters column shortlisting the players that can win the Masters has been successful since its inception in 2013. Since the field is smaller compared to other majors and it is the only major event that plays the same golf course each year, there are clear set metrics that have strong predictive outcomes for success at Augusta National Golf Club. Thus, the filtering process that narrows the list to 20-24 players lives on.

Last year was the second year in a row where the winner rather easily walked away with the green jacket. But the next four closest competitors (Aberg, Morikawa, Homa, and Fleetwood) were all players that I had filtered out. But, I do feel that the weather conditions may have played a role in those players finishing better than expected.

Over the past 25 years, Augusta National has greatly favored longer hitters. The best way for the shorter hitters to compete in the Masters is to get the right type of weather. It could be record low temperatures with strong winds, like in Zach Johnson’s 2007 victory, or it could be soft conditions from rain that allow shorter hitters to be able to hold those long approach shots, like in Mike Weir’s 2003 win.

The current trend of “critical holes,” where past leaders in the tournament have gained the most strokes against the field, is holes 7, 11, 13, and 17. But with the tee moved well back on 13 for the first time last year, any inclement weather may completely change the importance of that hole and give some advantage back to shorter hitters who are superior wedge players if virtually nobody can reach the green in two shots. Having said that, 11 is still proving to be the most critical hole as top players in the past have been gaining an average of 1.5 strokes per tournament on that hole alone.

As I have done for the past two editions, I’ll filter out the LIV players first. Since LIV Tour does not provide ShotLink or Trackman data, it’s more of a guessing game as to how certain LIV Tour golfers are playing.

Tyrrell Hatton
Dustin Johnson
Phil Mickelson
Joaquin Niemann
Charl Schwartzel
Cameron Smith
Bubba Watson

It feels odd leaving Mickelson and DJ out, but they haven’t played very well, and I don’t think the key parts of their game to succeed at Augusta are on point at this time. Niemann has made 4 out of 5 cuts at Augusta, but hasn’t really scared the top of the leaderboard. Recency bias matters in golf forecasting, and neither Cameron Smith nor Tyrrell Hatton have played all that well lately on the LIV Tour and in other tournaments around the world.

Next, I filtered out the amateurs and all first-time professional attendees. The Masters has only been won three times by a first-time attendee: Fuzzy Zoeller was the last to win in 1979. Prior to Zoeller, though, it was Horton Smith in the inaugural event in 1934, followed by Gene Sarazen in 1935:

Jose Luis Ballester(a)
Evan Beck (a)
Brian Campbell
Rafael Campos
Laurie Canter
Thomas Detry
Nico Echavarria
Max Greyserman
Justin Hastings (a)
Joe Highsmith
Rasmus Højgaard
Noah Kent (a)
Thriston Lawrence
Matt McCarty
Maverick McNealy
Taylor Pendrith
Aaron Rai
Davis Riley
Hiroshi Tai (a)
Davis Thompson
Kevin Yu

Out of all of the first-time attendees, the data likes Nico Echavarria and Kevin Yu to play the best at Augusta National.

I also filtered out old Masters champions I do not believe can get into contention anymore.

Angel Cabrera
Fred Couples
Zach Johnson
Bernhard Langer
Jose Maria Olazabal
Vijay Singh
Mike Weir

As I mentioned earlier, there is a recency bias involved with performance forecasting. Missing the cut in the event in the prior week greatly reduces the likelihood of winning the following week compared to players who miss the cut, take a week off, and then play the following week.

Therefore, I filter out all players who missed the cut at the Valero Texas Open last week.

Ludvig Aberg
Akshay Bhatia
Sam Burns
Matt Fitzpatrick
Max Homa
Tom Kim
Chris Kirk
Hideki Matsuyama
Adam Schenk

I will also filter out the players who have never made the cut at the Masters.

Wyndham Clark
Nick Dunlap
Austin Eckroat
Stephan Jaeger
Michael Kim

A Tradition Unlike Any Other…

Augusta National has traditionally favored longer hitters and even more so in the past 20 years of the event. Of course, there have been exceptions, as in 2007 when the short-hitting Zach Johnson ended up winning the event.

Critics of my filtering system point out Johnson’s victory as a case for short hitters being able to win at Augusta, but they neglect the fact that Johnson’s victory came in historically low temperatures in the 40s with wind gusts reaching 35 mph. That made the par-5s almost unreachable in two shots, and the course stressed wedge play and short game around the green, where Zach had a sizable advantage.

Historically on the PGA Tour, scores start to increase significantly once the wind speeds are going 12 mph or more. The forecast calls for a nice Thursday with winds blowing 9 mph SSW. Friday is the day of uncertainty with a forecast of potential morning rain and winds at 12 mph coming out of the West. Saturday is supposed to be a little cooler with 8 mph NNW winds. And then it is setup for a beautiful sunny Sunday with a high of 73 degrees and winds only blowing at 4 mph out of the Northwest. Mind you that the key par-5’s, 13 and 15 go west, so the wind is likely to be in the golfers’ face to some degree on those holes.

I still don’t see the weather being a big enough factor to help the shorter hitters, so I will filter out the players that don’t have enough distance off the tee.

Lucas Glover
Brian Harman
Russell Henley
Tom Hoge
Denny McCarthy
Collin Morikawa
JT Poston
Justin Rose
Sepp Straka
Nick Taylor
Danny Willett

Morikawa is the most difficult player to leave off this list since Augusta National is such an approach shot player’s course and Morikawa is arguably the best iron player in the world. His lack of distance is the only area of the game that he is missing to be a perfect fit for the course. And he has picked up some distance in the past couple of years, but still just narrowly misses out on the distance filter. It should also be noted that Sepp Straka has been having a strong season with his irons, particularly on his long approach shots.

The next filter will be players who hit the ball too low. This filter has been controversial in the past, but has continually proven to be valid. Last year I had 5 players in this filter with two of them missing the cut and the best finish was a t-22 by Joaquin Niemann. This year we have another 5 players to filter out:

Daniel Berger
Sungjae Im
Robert MacIntyre
Jhonattan Vegas
Will Zalatoris

Every year, I filter out the poor performers on approach shots from 175-225 yards, as Augusta National puts a lot of stress on those shots. Last year, I filtered out nine players, and they had the most success out of any group of players filtered out in previous Masters, with both Max Homa and Tommy Fleetwood finishing T3 — but most of the group still underperformed.

Here are the golfers I’m filtering out due to poor play from 175-225 yards:

Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Cam Davis
Jason Day
Harris English
Tommy Fleetwood
Billy Horschel
Patton Kizzire
Adam Scott
Jordan Spieth
Sahith Theegala
Cameron Young

That leaves the 20 players who can win the Masters…

Byeong Hun An (150/1)
Keegan Bradley (100/1)
Patrick Cantlay (40/1)
Corey Conners (65/1)
Bryson DeChambeau (14/1)
Tony Finau (80/1)
Sergio Garcia (80/1)
Nicolai Højgaard (200/1)
Viktor Hovland (35/1)
Brooks Koepka (25/1)
Min Woo Lee (40/1)
Shane Lowry (40/1)
Rory McIlroy (6.5/1)
Matthieu Pavon (400/1)
Jon Rahm (16/1)
Patrick Reed (80/1)
Xander Schauffele (20/1)
Scottie Scheffler (5/1)
JJ Spaun (175/1)
Justin Thomas (25/1)

My personal top-10 picks

Corey Conners (65/1)
Bryson DeChambeau (14/1)
Viktor Hovland (35/1)`
Min Woo Lee (40/1)
Shane Lowry (40/1)
Rory McIlroy (6.5/1)
Jon Rahm (16/1)
Xander Schauffele (20/1)
Scottie Scheffler (5/1)
Justin Thomas (25/1)