News

Vincenzi’s 2024 BMW Championship betting preview: Backing Cantlay in Colorado

Published

2 years ago

Aug 19, 2024

The PGA TOUR has reached the penultimate event of the 2024 season as we head to Castle Rock, Colorado, to play the BMW Championship.

The top 50 players left standing in the race for the FedEx Cup will tee it up this week at Castle Pines Golf Club looking to punch their ticket to East Lake.

This is the first time the BMW Championship will be played at Castle Pines Golf Club, and the event has had a different host in seven of the past eight editions of the tournament. Previously, Castle Pines played host to The International Tournament on the PGA Tour from 1986-2006.

Castle Pines Golf Club is a par-72 measuring 8,054 yards but will play significantly shorter due to elevation. The course features Bentgrass greens and is a Jack Nicklaus design.

Throughout this article, I’ll be referencing an interview that George Solich, who is the chairman and president of Castle Pines Golf Club as well as Keith Schneider, the General Manager, did with Colorado Avid Golfer, highlighting the key aspects of the golf course.

The BMW Championship will be a no-cut event, with the top 30 players in the FedEx Cup standings moving onto the Tour Championship next week.

Past Winners at the BMW Championship

2023: Viktor Hovland (-17) Olympia Fields
2022: Patrick Cantlay (-14) Wilmington
2021: Patrick Cantlay (-27) Caves Valley
2020: Jon Rahm (-4) Olympia Fields
2019: Justin Thomas (-25) Medinah
2018: Keegan Bradley (-20) Aronimink
2017: Marc Leishman (-23) Conway Farms

In this article, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Castle Pines

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for Castle Pines Golf Club to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

When players at this time of year get hot, they tend to stay hot. SG: Approach is the best indicator of current form. Additionally, Jack Nicklaus designs tend to reward the best iron players.

SG: App Over Past 24 Rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+1.78)
Xander Schauffele (+1.38)
Tony Finau (+1.17)
Aaron Rai (+23.9)
Shane Lowry (+1.00)

Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Strokes Gained: Ball Striking will give us a strong indicator of who’s playing the best from tee to green. Players who are already long off the tee will have short irons into plenty of greens if they keep it in the fairway.

Strokes Gained: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+2.36)
Xander Schauffele (+1.65)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1.35)
Shane Lowry (+1.31)
Ludvig Aberg (+1.18)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)

We’ve consistently seen the best Bentgrass putters play well on the surface time and time again. In two of the past three years, Patrick Cantlay feasted on his favorite green type and won on the back of +14.6 Strokes Gained: Putting at Caves Valley and 2.9 Strokes Gained: Putting at Wilmington.

“The greens have always been bent grass; the fairways are a combination of bent and ryegrass, and the tees are bent, and the rough is Kentucky bluegrass,” golf course General Manager Keith Schneider said. “In fact, if anything, there’s been a lot of effort made on the approaches to go back to a very consistent experience.”

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Past 24 rounds:

Denny McCarthy (+1.12)
Ludvig Aberg (+1.01)
Mackenzie Hughes (+0.89)
Billy Horschel (+0.88)
Matt Fitzpatrick (+0.82)

Strokes Gained: High Elevation

Castle Pines will play at extremely high elevation. The sample size is small, but I’d at least like to factor in some previous statistics from courses with similarly high altitude.

Strokes Gained: High Elevation Past 30 rounds (minimum 8):

Patrick Cantlay (+2.35)
Rory McIlroy (+2.17)
Xander Schauffele (+2.16)
Justin Thomas (+2.01)
Sahith Theegala (+1.83)

Strokes Gained: Nicklaus Designs

Castle Pines Golf Club is a Jack Nicklaus design. Players who’ve thrived at Nickalus designs in the past will look to repeat the same success this week.

Strokes Gained: Nicklaus Designs Over Past 30 Rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+2.64)
Patrick Cantlay (+2.20)
Collin Morikawa (+2.17)
Shane Lowry (+1.78)
Viktor Hovland (+1.73)

Birdie or Better Percentage

While speaking with Colorado Avid Golfer, General Manager of Castle Pines, Keith Schneider said he’d expect a -20 winner.

There’s always a lot of speculation as to what that will be and as good as these players are today, there’s a lot of good courses that 20-under seems to be kind of the mark anymore.”

“Weather will dictate that,” Schneider said. “If the golf course is soft, they’ll throw darts at it so that the score will be down. You know, if we were really concerned about score, we could have made a couple of par-fives, par-fours. Well, that’s not the history of the golf course. The history of the golf course is that it’s a par 72 and we wanted to honor that and respect that.”

Birdie or Better Percentage Over Past 24 Rounds:

Max Greyserman (27.5%)
Sungjae Im (27.3%)
Eric Cole (25.7%)
Davis Thompson (25%)
Xander Schauffele (25%)

BMW Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed: SG: Approach (26%), SG: Ball Striking (23%), Strokes Gained: Putting Bentgrass (14%), Birdie or Better (14%), SG: High Elevation (8%) and SG: Nicklaus Designs (145).

Xander Schauffele
Scottie Scheffler
Viktor Hovland
Tommy Fleetwood
Tony Finau
Ludvig Aberg
Russell Henley
Sungjae Im
Patrick Cantlay
Shane Lowry
Billy Horschel
Collin Morikawa
Aaron Rai
Sepp Straka
Max Greyserman

2024 BMW Championship Picks

Patrick Cantlay +2200 (FanDuel)

Last week, Patrick Cantlay shook off the rust after not playing since the Open Championship, finishing in a tie for 9th at the Fed Ex St. Jude Championship. He got off to a slow start with a 72 (+2) in round one but followed it with rounds of 67 (-3), 66 (-4) and 66 (-4) in the subsequent three rounds, climbing into a tied for 12th place finish. He was especially sharp on Sunday, ranking 6th on the day in Strokes Gained: Approach and 18th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee.

Cantlay has won the BMW Championship in two of the last three seasons, and Castle Pines Golf Club looks to be another spectacular course fit for the 32-year-old. Cantlay is the best player in the field in his past 30 rounds in terms of Strokes Gained: Total in high elevation and also leads the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Jack Nicklaus designs. Cantlay has been incredible on Nicklaus designs throughout his career and has won at Muirfield Village twice.

It’s been a disappointing few seasons for Cantlay, as he has not won an event since the 2022 BMW Championship. However, he’s played some good golf in the second half of the season, finishing in the top-25 in seven of his past ten starts.

Throughout his career, Cantlay has done his best work on Bentgrass greens. Six of his seven individual wins on the PGA Tour have come on Bentgrass. At Caves Valley (2021 BMW Championship), he gained over 12 strokes putting to outduel Bryson DeChambeau in a playoff.

Over his past 36 rounds in the FedEx Cup Playoffs, Cantlay ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Total. This is the time of year when he begins to play his best golf and how he named the moniker “Patty Ice”. I believe this is the week we see Cantlay’s two-year winless streak come to a screeching halt.

Tony Finau +2800 (BetMGM)

There are few players in the field who will have as much comfortability playing in the high altitude this week as Tony Finau. The elevation in Utah is the third highest on average of any U.S. state, and Tony grew up as the star of Utah Golf.

Finau has also played solid golf throughout the latter half of the season. The 34-year-old has finished in the top 12 in five of his past seven starts, including a tie for 3rd at the U.S. Open. He’s also hit the ball fantastically in that stretch, gaining strokes on approach in seven consecutive starts.

In his past 24 rounds, Finau ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach and 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. With four par 5’s on the course playing in extreme altitude, Finau is the type of player who can make a ton of birdies at Castle Pines. In the field, he ranks 6th in his last 24 rounds in Birdie or Better Percentage. Historically, Finau has won in “birdie-fests”, which is what I believe this week will be. His last five wins have all come with scores between -16 and -24, with his most recent win coming at the 2023 Mexico Open (-24).

Finau has won a playoff event in the past (2021 Northern Trust) and has the advantage playing in elevation to win another this year for his first win of the season.

Billy Horschel +5000 (FanDuel)

In July, Billy Horschel found himself in the final group of the Open Championship at Royal Troon. Despite not winning, the veteran has been locked in ever since and used the best major performance of his career as a springboard to playing excellent golf ever since.

Horschel finished in a tie for 7th at the Wyndham Championship in his first start after The Open and followed it up with a tie for 10th at last week’s FedEx St. Jude. At TPC Southwind, Billy ranked 1oth for the week in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Despite being known as a great putter on Bermudagrass, Horschel has actually putt much more efficiently on Bentgrass this season. Over the past 24 rounds, he ranks 2nd in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass.

Horschel has had plenty of success in elevation. He won the 2014 BMW Championship at Cherry Hills in Colorado and ranks 13th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total in high elevation. He also has been excellent at Jack Nicklaus designs. He won the Memorial Tournament in 2022 at Muirfield Village. He also put forth a great performance in the PGA Championship at Valhalla (Nicklaus Design) finishing 12th.

Billy has proven in the past he can beat the best players in the world when he finds himself in contention over the weekend.

Sahith Theegala +5500 (FanDuel)

Sahith Theegala has been a bit quiet of late, but that doesn’t change that he’s had a great season. The Pepperdine product has seven top 10 finishes on the year, including two top 6 finishes in his last four starts.

Theegala has been comfortable playing in high elevation and ranks 10th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total in that department over his past 36 rounds. He’s also a fantastic putter on Bentgrass, where he ranks 12th in the field.

The early returns on Sahith show that he really excels when playing Jack Nicklaus designed courses. He ranks 15th in the field in the category and has a few strong finishes on Nicklaus designs this season including a T12 at both The Memorial (Muirfield Village) and the PGA Championship (Valhalla).

Despite the strong season, Theegala would be the first to tell you that he’d love a FedEx Cup playoff win to finish it off. I believe he can get involved and has the type of putter that can win him a tournament down the stretch on Sunday provided the driver cooperates.

Nick Dunlap +8000 (FanDuel)

Nick Dunlap is having one of the most impressive seasons by a 20-year-old in quite a while. He has two wins on the season at the American Express and the Barracuda Championship and put forth a gritty effort over the weekend at last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship to punch his ticket to this week’s BMW Championship.

While it is certainly a big ask for Dunlap to win in this field, I believe he has a shot. His previous wins both came in “birdie-fests” and he should be able to tear Castle Pines apart with his driving distance and ability to exploit the four par-fives on the course.

Dunlap is no stranger to playing in high elevation. He won the U.S. Amateur at Cherry Hills in Colorado, making him the second golfer in history to win both the U.S. Junior Amateur and U.S. Amateur championships. He also has shown that he has an affinity for Jack Nicklaus designs, winning at Tahoe Mountain Club’s Old Greenwood course in California.

Dunlap played with Scottie Scheffler in the first leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs, beating him by three shots in the third round. There’s no doubt he will be nervous if he’s in contention at this week’s BMW Championship, but the kid has showed he’s not one to back down from a challenge.

News

Most birdies without breaking par – GolfWRXers discuss

Published

8 hours ago

Jun 11, 2026

Will Schube

In our forums, one user is wondering how many birdies other players have had in a round while still failing to break par. @Lalan45, unfortunately, asked the question after a unique experience of their own.

They wrote:

“Today I managed 8 birdies but still shot even par, could have been a round to remember! What’s the most birdies you’ve made in a round and still didn’t break par?”

Our members in the forum shared their own experiences with successful rounds that still resulted in a score over par. Here are a few posts from the thread, but make sure to check out the entire discussion and have your say at the link below.

kwcsports: “I’ve had 5 a few times, still shot 80+ haha.”
jda: “I played a course for the first time, had 8 birdies, 9 doubles and an eagle. The infamous no-par round. I kept the scorecard. Every shot had a creek that I did not know about, or I was within 8-10 feet for a birdie look. To this day, I have no idea if I should be really jacked up or mad about that performance.”
jvincent: “I think my record is either 5 or 6. Probably shot 75.”
Instron4204: “3 birdies and shot a 92…man I suck!”

Entire Thread: “Most Birdies Without Breaking Par.”

News

Best current stock shaft 2026 – GolfWRXers discuss

Published

8 hours ago

Jun 11, 2026

Will Schube

In our forums, one user is asking for thoughts on the best stock shafts offered in 2026. Stock shafts are the shafts included with a club when it’s purchased from retailers or OEMs.

@DTorres asked:

The last couple years has seen a lot of updates and additions to no upcharge stock shafts, which do you think is the best offering in 2026?

Im a bit of a shaft nerd and recently during my Members Testing with the Callaway Quantum Triple Diamond I found the updated Project X Denali Frost Black to be a fantastic stock shaft. I absolutely did not mesh well with the original Denali. Just curious what other people think are the current best Stock shaft offerings out with new models and stock Ventus options and LinQ options popping up here and there.

We were given the option for any stock shafts for our members review. I went with the 70g Black Frost 6.5 because it’s a shaft I don’t have, it’s an updated version of the original Denali and hear little about. I typically use a Diamana WB, GD VF or a HOF Raptor. I’m not saying it was neck and neck with any of those but it was a pleasant surprise I’m not accustomed to in stock shaft offerings.

Our members in the forum have been offering up their own thoughts on the best stock shafts available in 2026. Here are a few posts from the thread, but make sure to check out the entire discussion and have your say at the link below.

rsballer10: “IMO – MCA Ka’ili White Darkwave, Tensei 1k Black/white, UST Lin-Q White. People are free to spend their money however they see fit, but for me personally the shaft catalogs these days have enough options that I don’t see the value of a $400 upcharge. I have never had a problem finding a no upcharge shaft that fits the bend profile and weight that I need. Whether the paint job is good enough or not is above my pay scale.”
bcflyguy1: “Project X Titan Black. I’ve had one in 60TX in my Quantum TD Max for several weeks now. Have to give Titlieist their flowers for finding a way to make it available as a featured option; very shrewd bit of business and one that I suspect will be duplicated by the other companies. TT/PX have a certified banger on their hands with Titan.”
CTG77: “Undoubtedly, it’s the Tensei 1K RIP shafts from Titleist. The Tensei line gives about 98% of the performance of a Ventus VeloCore+ shaft at a tiny fraction of the cost if you’re looking for a blue or red profile. The white is not an exact match for Ventus Black, but it’s closer to it than the non-VeloCore+ Ventus shafts that come from Callaway or formerly came from TaylorMade.”

Entire Thread: “Best current stock shaft 2026.”

News

GolfWRX’s Father’s Day Gift Guide (2026)

Published

2 days ago

Jun 9, 2026

GolfWRX Staff

A reminder from your friends at GolfWRX: Father’s Day is June 21. And as we do every year, we’re rounding up the best gifts for dad.

As we say every year, there’s no better golf-related Father’s Day gift than a round of golf with pops. Be it a country club or your favorite muni, take the time to get together to play 18 if you can.

Let’s get to the gifts.

Ghost Golf Qualifier Diamond Polo

We like the new polos that Ghost is offering, as the fabric and fit are so good. These new Qualifier Collection polos breathe well, are lightweight, stretch with your swing, and of course look great. You can wear them on the course, in the office, or just out at a casual event and they will fit right in.

Buy here.

STR8-Strip Grip Tape Remover

If your dad is an equipment aficionado and tinkers with his clubs, this tool works wonders. Removing grip tape has never been easier, just put a little head on the tape and the STR8-Strip peals it right off the shaft without any damage.

Buy here.

Why Golf: Putting Thing

When it comes to practice, it is good to have a purpose. This “Putting Thing” sure does it. We know from personal experience how challenging it can be and how rewarding it is on the practice green. This also provides some competition for your kiddo to see who will unload the dishwasher or do the next chore around the house.

Buy here.

OluKai Lae‘ahi Men’s Breathable Slip-On Shoes

Riding to and from the course in style and comfort is always a good thing. If you’re in a hurry, it’s a nice feature to slide into your shoes and get to the tee time. For the post-game shoe, at your locker or while putting your clubs away in the car. Nice to slide into a shoe that looks good anywhere. Pair that with meeting the family for dinner, no need to change!

Buy here.

Therabody Theragun Relief

A little wellness goes a long way. Keeping loose is a good way to go when it comes to the weekend game or treatment during the week. If there is a little ache or pain, the Theragun is there to help out. Help loosen up the back for a pre-game warm-up or cool-down.

Buy here.

World Cup golf apparel

Something for the soccer dads. Embrace the World Cup fever this summer on the course with custom gear to support the nation of your choice.

Buy here.

FootJoy Pro SL spikeless golf shoes

Give the old man a break and save his feet with the Footjoy Pro SL Men’s Spikeless Golf Shoes for some added comfort on the course.

Buy here.

Bushnell Wingman 2 GPS speaker

Combine all the hits as well as some game improvement with the Wingman 2 Golf GPS Speaker by getting audible distance readings from 38,000+ courses worldwide through the Wingman 2 remote or speaker.

Buy here.

Personalized Titleist Pro V1 golf balls

The No. 1 ball in golf is a safe bet, and the Pro V1 fits the largest chunk of the bell curve if you don’t know what ball pops plays. Add personalization for a, well, personal touch!

Buy here.