If you weren’t on the edge of your seat as Saturday afternoon’s play thread unraveled, you were certainly having a good nap. Golf at Pinehurst was riveting, as birdies and double bogeys faced off in a breathaking dance. Competitors suddenly rose to heights, then fell just as quickly away to the depths. The leader through three rounds stands at seven-under par, with seven other conestants at minus-one or better. For the first time all week, the lead involves just one golfer, and there is a three-shot gap until the next players. It’s uncharted territory for the 124th US Open, and it merits a bit of investigation and explanation, along with a dash of anticipation. Five bits of information tie the third round in a splendid bow, and I’ll share those five things we learned with you, right now.

1. Holes 1 and 2 are not to be assumed

Thomas Detry’s hard work went away in the space of 35 minutes. He opened with bogey and followed with double, at Saturday’s first two holes. Pinehurst #2 can still be managed, but it’s a lot harder when you’re already three over par on the day. Neither the first nor the second is particularly daunting from a distance perspective. One plays slightly downward, and two is even more downhill, but the challenges around the green are regrettable, when not properly planned. Detry made five from the middle of the first fairway, thanks to three putts from the front of the putting surface. He followed with six at the second, victimized first by the piney sands along the fairway, then by the bunker that guards the right edge of the green. Detry fell away to two-over par after his 76, and will wonder how the formerly-benign opening sharpened its claws so quickly.

Solid Quote: Yeah, didn’t really get off to a great start. 3-putted the first. We (Detry and Caddy) kind of misjudged the yardage on the 2nd, which left us in a horrible spot. So double there.

Honestly, couldn’t have been a worse start because I didn’t really miss a shot, to be honest. We kind of misjudged the yardage. Laid up in the bunker. Kind of game over. 3-over after three, not good.

But I kind of regrouped nicely after that. The greens are a little bit bumpy, moving a little bit more. I shaved a couple of edges. Felt like I was a little bit unlucky on the greens. I’m looking forward for some redemption tomorrow.

It’s the toughest hole on the course!

Tony Finau moves to one stroke off the lead with a birdie on 2. pic.twitter.com/Jh0c4UU82O

— U.S. Open (@usopengolf) June 15, 2024

2. Hole number three, while early, can be pivotal

The USGA was content to push the tees up a bit on the short, third hole on Saturday. It paid off, as players went after the green with their tee shots. Eagles were sparingly made, and birdies came more often than on previous days. If a player stands even or a bit under par after the opening pair, then finds birdie or eagle at three on Sunday, heartbeats will quicken and the game will be truly afoot. They’ll need to follow the leads of Neal Shipley and Cory Conners, both of whom found the putting surface in one on Saturday.

Solid Quote: Out here you can’t play defensive golf. If you (Morikawa) play defensive golf, it goes offline a little bit more, you’re 35 yards away from the pin.

Neal Shipley’s the FIRST to drive the 316-yard par-4 third hole ? pic.twitter.com/gZZqmey0gv

— U.S. Open (@usopengolf) June 15, 2024

3. Make your move in the round’s middle

Bryson DeChambeau picked up four shots on the card on Saturday, from holes five through eleven. The strong man from Texafornia (grew up in California, then played college golf in Texas) saved strokes at five and seven, then packed consecutive birdies at ten and eleven. The middle holes at the Deuce aren’t necessarily soft. They are attractive to scoring, especially when you’ve found a way to survive the first quartet. You gain momentum at the fourth, with the massively-downhill drive, then build opportunity with a well-planned fifth, the first par five of the day. The long holes are finished at the tenth green, but holes eleven through fourteen offer the chance to save a few more shots, before the long trek home.

Solid Quote: … on 13 I (DeChambeau) was going for the flag knowing the wind was off the right. It it went over to the left, totally fine. But I pushed it just a little bit and drew it back perfectly at the flag on 13. I knew that was in the realm of possibilities. Got a little lucky there.

Then 14 I was trying to hit it more toward Ludvig’s ball. I hit a great shot, just didn’t start out with any draw spin and the wind pushed it right towards the flag.

That’s kind of what you’re doing out here, is you’re trying to play conservative golf that gives you the opportunity to hit it close in some scenarios. That’s the best way I can describe it.

Taking on the flag from the fairway bunker?!

That’s Bryson, man. pic.twitter.com/M55toDBH75

— U.S. Open (@usopengolf) June 15, 2024

4. Hold on through the finish

Pinehurst’s number two course closes with two par threes, a par four that was built to be a par five, and an unforgettable finisher that conjures up images of fist pumps and sighs of relief. It’s hard to build a rhythm when you hit iron-drive-iron-driver over the closing quartet.

Solid quote: You (Pavon) feel like sometimes you are flying a little bit, your game, everything is going on, and then at some point you just miss one green, can see a bogey, and then all of a sudden it starts to be harder in your mind and in your game, and you still have to finish the round.

McIlroy drops a shot on 17 and the lead is now FOUR for DeChambeau. pic.twitter.com/gnOrQW94rR

— U.S. Open (@usopengolf) June 15, 2024

5. How do we sort this out?

With a three-shot advantage, the joystick is in DeChambeau’s hand. He forces everyone to shoot 67 or better, if he posts 70. His pairing in the final game with Matthieu Pavon is not ideal. The Frenchman has the potential to play a solid round, but his inexperience with the klieg lights of a major championship, fourth round, final pairing could lead to a high number. Does this faltering then distract DeChambeau? Perhaps. I believe that will happen, and he will post 72 on the day, finishing at minus five.

That wee wobble opens the door for the penultimate pairing. Cantlay and McIlroy will feel like the final day at a Ryder Cup, perhaps even a rehearsal for 2025 and Bethpage Black. They will be uber-focused on beating each other. The expectation will be that no other leader is better suited to handle Sunday’s pressure. Win the battle and you win the war. One of the two of them will post 68, and will reach a playoff at minus six.

The other playoff participant will come from a bit farther back. Either Hideki or Ludvig will inscribe 66 on his card on day the fourth, and will join battle for another two holes. We haven’t had a US Open playoff since Tiger Woods defeated Rocco Mediate in 2008, which means that we’ve never experienced a two-hole, aggregate score resolution.

We’ll have one on Sunday, plus one more hole. If contestants are tied after the aggregate, they move to sudden victory on the third playoff hole and beyond. After the two golfers match scores on one and eighteen, the 2024 US Open will be decided on the second playing of the first hole, and the winner will be the first male Japanese golfer to claim a USGA Open title: Hideki Matsuyama. For him, it will be fun.

Solid Quote: Yeah, I (Matsuyama) think I would be able to enjoy tomorrow if I can adjust my shot and putt well. It will be something fun tomorrow.

“Hey Siri, sum up Hideki Matsuyama” pic.twitter.com/SBBwSXtVDj

— Flushing It (@flushingitgolf) June 15, 2024