19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational betting preview: Big names ready to pounce at Bay Hill

Published

2 years ago

Mar 4, 2024

The PGA Tour continues its Florida Swing at Bay Hill Club & Lodge to play the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational this week. The event has been a mainstay on Tour, appearing on the schedule every year since 1979. However, this year the tournament will be the fourth of eight “signature events” this season, which offer a $20 million prize pool.

Bay Hill Club & Lodge is a par-72 measuring 7,454 yards featuring Bermudagrass greens. Bay Hill can play extremely difficult if the wind picks up, but the course certainly has teeth whether there is wind or not.

The event being “signature” just about guarantees that all of the top players on TOUR will be in attendance this week. Of the 55 players eligible entering last week, only Tony Finau will not be in the field.

Past Winners at Bay Hill

2023: Kurt Kitayama (-9)
2022: Scottie Scheffler (-5)
2021: Bryson DeChambeau (-11)
2020: Tyrrell Hatton (-4)
2019: Francesco Molinari (-12)
2018: Rory McIlroy (-18)
2017: Marc Leishman (-11)
2016: Jason Day (-17)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

5 Key Stats For Bay Hill

Let’s take a look at five metrics key for Bay Hill to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Approach is often the most important statistic, and this week will be no different. This is a difficult golf course, and players will be penalized for missing greens in regulation.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

Matthieu Pavon (+1.61)
Scottie Scheffler (+1.31)
Tom Hoge (+1.18)
Adam Scott (+0.93)
Tom Kim (+0.78)

2. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

To compete at Bay Hill, golfers will need an excellent performance off the tee. Distance is important due to the length of the course and its layout, but accuracy is just as important.

We have seen recent events in which golfers can get away with bad tee shots, but Bay Hill isn’t one of those courses. The rough is extremely thick and penal, so saving par after a poor tee shot isn’t likely.

SG: OTT Over Past 24 Rounds

Rory McIlroy (+1.12)
Scottie Scheffler (+0.69)
Sam Burns (+0.69)
Xander Schauffele (+0.67)
Min Woo Lee (+0.66)

3. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda and Fast)

A major reason Bay Hill plays as one of the most difficult courses on TOUR is the incredibly fast greens. The Bermuda putting surfaces will be some of the fastest players see all season long.

SG: Putting (Bermuda and Fast) over past 24 rounds:

Mackenzie Hughes (+1.08)
Xander Schauffele (+0.93)
Harris English (+0.82)
Eric Cole (+0.77)
Adam Svensson (+0.69)

4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

While ball-striking is in part off the tee and approach, I want the total tee-to-green package built into the model this week as it will take a well-rounded effort from tee to green to get it done at Bay Hill.

SG: BS Over Past 24 Rounds

Matthieu Pavon (+2.01)
Scottie Scheffler (+2.00)
Xander Schauffele (+1.38)
Adam Scott (+1.28)
Corey Conners (+1.21)

5. Strokes Gained: Florida

With certain players favoring different regions of the country, I’m once again going to incorporate Strokes Gained: Total in the state of Florida.

SG: Florida Over Past 36 Rounds

Scottie Scheffler (+2.10)
Viktor Hovland (+1.87)
Rory McIlroy (+1.82)
Justin Thomas (+1.68)
Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.62)

Arnold Palmer Invitational Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories discussed above — SG: Approach (25%), SG: Off the Tee (25%), SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Lightning (18%), SG: Ball Striking (20%) and SG: Florida (12%).

Xander Schauffele
Scottie Scheffler
Adam Svensson
Sam Burns
Kurt Kitayama
Corey Conners
Justin Thomas
Cameron Young
Wyndham Clark
Tom Kim

2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks

Rory McIlroy +900 (DraftKings)

Rory McIlroy is coming off a T22 finish at the Cognizant Classic where he led the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (+6.44) and also gained 1.6 strokes on approach. Rory has played sparingly so far this season, so the solid finish last week in Florida was a good way for the Northern Irishman to gain some momentum heading into the signature event at Bay Hill.

Rory has been absolutely spectacular at Bay Hill throughout his career. In his last seven trips to the course, the four-time major champion is yet to finish worse than 13th. He won the event in 2018 and has finished 4th in 2017, 5th in 2020, and runner-up last season.

In his past 24 rounds, Rory ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (by a significant margin), 3rd in Strokes Gained: Total in Florida and 6th in Strokes Gained: Putting on firm and fast Bermudgrass greens.

Thus far in 2024, the big names haven’t been winning on the PGA Tour. I believe that changes with a Rory McIlroy victory at one of the world’s most iconic courses.

Tommy Fleetwood +2800 (FanDuel)

Tommy Fleetwood has played great golf in the state of Florida throughout his career. The Englishman has eight career top-10 finishes in the Sunshine State, including three of them at Bay Hill (2017, 2019 and 2021).

Although Tommy hasn’t been known as a “winner” in the United States throughout his career, it seems as if the 33-year-old turned a last season. He had ten top-ten’s worldwide including some encouraging results in big events such as T5’s at the Wells Fargo Championship and the U.S. Open. He’s also started 2024 similarly to how he played in 2023, winning the Dubai Invitational back in January. In his most recent start, Fleetwood finished 10th at the Genesis Invitational.

Tommy may have never won on American soil, but he’s taken his game to another level. He’s now one of the best players on the PGA Tour and a tough scoring, windy event in Florida would be a perfect scenario for Fleetwood to finally get that first victory in the United States.

19th Hole

How much each player won at the 2026 Masters

Published

2 months ago

Apr 13, 2026

Gianni Magliocco

Rory McIlroy made it two wins in as many years at Augusta National, seeing off the challengers on a dramatic Sunday to slip on the green jacket once again. The victory earned Rory a whopping payday of $4.5 million, with Scottie Scheffler his closest challenger earning $2.43 million for his sole runner-up finish.

With a total prize purse of $22.5 million up for grabs, here’s a look at how much each player won at the 2026 Masters tournament.

For players that did not make the cut, they still earned $25k for their efforts at the year’s opening major.

1: Rory McIlroy, $4.5 million
2: Scottie Scheffler, $2.43 million
T3: Tyrrell Hatton, $1.08 million
T3: Russell Henley, $1.08 million
T3: Justin Rose, $1.08 million
T3: Cameron Young, $1.08 million
T7: Collin Morikawa, $725,625
T7: Sam Burns, $725,625
T9: Xander Schauffele, $630,00
T9: Max Homa, $630,00
11: Jake Knapp, $562,500
T12: Jordan Spieth, $427,500
T12: Brooks Koepka, $427,500
T12: Hideki Matsuyama, $427,500
T12: Patrick Reed, $427,500
T12: Patrick Cantlay, $427,500
T12: Jason Day, $427,500
T18: Viktor Hovland, $315,000
T18: Maverick McNealy, $315,000
T18: Matt Fitzpatrick, $315,000
T21: Keegan Bradley, $252,000
T21: Ludvig Aberg, $252,000
T21: Wyndham Clark, $252,000
T24: Matt McCarty, $182,083
T24: Adam Scott, $182,083
T24: Sam Stevens, $182,083
T24: Chris Gotterup, $182,083
T24: Michael Brennan, $182,083
T24: Brian Campbell, $182,083
T30: Alex Noren, $146,250
T30: Harris English, $146,250
T30: Shane Lowry, $146,250
T33: Gary Woodland, $121,500
T33: Dustin Johnson, $121,500
T33: Brian Harman, $121,500
T33: Tommy Fleetwood, $121,500
T33: Ben Griffin, $121,500
T38: Jon Rahm, $105,750
T38: Ryan Gerard, $101,250
T38: Haotong Li, $96,750
T41: Justin Thomas, $92,250
T41: Sepp Straka, $87,750
T41: Jacob Bridgeman, $83,250
T41: Kristoffer Reitan, $78,750
T41: Nick Taylor, $74,250
46: Sungjae Im, $69,750
47: Si Woo Kim, $65,250
48: Aaron Rai, $61,650
T49: Corey Conners, $57,600
T49: Marco Penge, $57,600
51: Kurt Kitayama, $55,250
52: Sergio Garcia, $54,000
53: Rasmus Hojgaard, $52,650
54: Charl Schwartzel, $51,300

19th Hole

CBS’s Sunday Masters coverage slammed by golf fans

Published

2 months ago

Apr 13, 2026

Gianni Magliocco

While Sunday was a dramatic day at the Masters, many golf fans were left feeling frustrated by the CBS final round coverage.

There were plenty of moments that golf fans took to social media to air their frustrations on Sunday over, including a lack of shots being shown throughout the day, being behind the live action, confusion over the approach shots of the final group on 18, and providing an angle for the winning putt where the cup couldn’t be seen.

Here’s a look at some of the criticisms that were directed at the CBS coverage throughout the day on X:

This has been a brutal broadcast for CBS. When the folks from Augusta sit down with them this year, you can bet they’ll talk about this 15 seconds where we have no idea where Rory’s ball went, and Dottie moans. #TheMasters pic.twitter.com/ak3mkpIN7V

— Ryan (@PossiblyRy) April 12, 2026

It’s rare criticism coming in for CBS, who are usually heavily praised for their Masters coverage each year.

19th Hole

The surprise club Tommy Fleetwood says is key to his Masters chances

Published

2 months ago

Apr 7, 2026

Gianni Magliocco

Tommy Fleetwood goes in search for the first major victory of his career again this week, with the Englishman proving to be a popular pick at Augusta National.

Fleetwood’s best showing at Augusta came back in 2024 where he finished T3, and while speaking at his pre-tournament press conference, the 35-year-old emphasized the importance of his 9-wood in his pursuit of the green jacket.

Speaking on Tuesday to media, Fleetwood said:

“It’s a great 9-wood golf course. I think it’s always been — I can’t remember when I first put like a 9-wood in or a high lofted club, but it’s a perfect like 9-wood golf course. I’ve had that in the bag for a few years.”

The Englishman continued, revealing that his strategy for the week won’t just be to hit driver off the tee as much as possible:

“Yeah, it’s funny really because I know Augusta is probably associated with being fairly forgiving off the tee in a way, so you think you can whale around driver a little bit. But I don’t necessarily think that’s always the play for me. I think there’s holes that set up really well where I can draw it with the mini driver if I’m feeling less comfortable with the driver and things like that.”

That strategy he believes will make his TaylorMade Qi10 9-wood extra critical this week in Georgia:

“The biggest thing is the 9-wood for me. If I can put myself in position on the par-5s or the 4th long par-3, like it — for me, I can’t really hit that high 4-iron, so 9-wood helps me a lot.”