The PGA Tour continues its fall swing this week in Los Cabos, Mexico as the majority of the field battles it out to get into the top-125 of the FedEx Cup standings.

El Cardonal brings plenty of unknowns this week. The Tiger Woods design has not been used in a professional setting thus far and was built in large part as a resort style course, meaning it most likely will be torn apart by PGA Tour players. I fully expect this event to get into the -25 range and will be targeting players who can go low.

One quantifiable entity that El Cardonal will bring is Paspalum greens, which seems to bring out the best in certain players in the field.

The layout is fairly wide open with big greens, so long hitters could excel at the course, but I wouldn’t rule out shorter players given the easy layout.

As of now, there appears to be very little wind in the forecast. However, being on the coast, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see it play a small factor on Thursday.

2023 World Wide Technology First-Round Leader Picks

Matt Kuchar +7000 (Caesars)

Matt Kuchar isn’t the longest hitter, which may hold him back at El Cardonal as opposed to a course like El Camaleon where he’s won, but I still believe the resort-style setup of this course will be beneficial for the 45-year-old.

Kuchar has been playing a lot of golf lately, so he should be relatively sharp for the event. In his most recent start, he played the Andalucia Masters and shot a final round-67, which was the second lowest round of the day.

In addition to the win at the Mayakoba in 2021, Kuchar also has 3rd place finish as well as numerous top finishes on other coastal tracks. He ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Paspalum.

Tyler Duncan +8000 (FanDuel)

Tyler Duncan has had a strong fall, finishing 16th at the Sanderson Farms Championship and 18th at the Shriners Children’s Open. He also has some intriguing paspalum form including a 3rd at the Corales (2023) and 23rd at Mayakoba in 2020. He ranks 12th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on the surface.

Duncan also feasts on easy course setups and ranks 3rd in the field in the category. His most recent round played was a 65 in the final round of the Shriners and seems an ideal candidate to go low again on Thursday.

Austin Eckroat +8000 (BetRivers)

Austin Eckroat has some strong paspalum finishes including a 5th place finish at the 2023 Corales Puntacana and a 12th place finish at the Mayakoba. The Oklahoma State product managed to contend at Corales despite going into the event with six consecutive missed cuts.

Many anticipated Eckroat to have a big year in 2022-2023, but he struggled fairly often. The talent is undoubtedly there, and he’ll look to start stringing some results together starting at a course that should suit him.

Harry Hall +9000 (FanDuel)

For a multitude of reasons, I believe Harry Hall is primed to have a big week in Mexico. The Englishman absolutely loves playing on the coast and a good deal of his best finishes have come on Paspalum including the 2023 Puerto Rico Open (7th), j2023 Mexico Open 2023 Corales (13th), and the 2022 Great Exuma (19th).

Hall is a fantastic putter who can get extremely hot on the greens which is always a bonus for a first-round leader bet.

Kelly Kraft +11000 (FanDuel)

Kelly Kraft is another resort course specialist who boasts strong results on similar tracks including a 3rd and 5th place finish at Corales (2018 and 2019), a 15th place finish at the Mexico Open (2020) and 15th at the Puerto Rico Open (2016).

In addition to the strong results on correlating courses, Kraft is also in excellent form. In his past two starts, he’s gained 6.3 and 7.7 strokes on approach, which make up two of the best six approach performances of his entire career.

After finishes of 25th, 16th and 23rd in his three starts this fall, the 36-year-old should be set up to have a strong week on a course that he will undoubtedly feel very comfortable on.