Opinion & Analysis
2022 Farmers Insurance Open outright betting selections
The PGA Tour season ramps up this week as we head to historic Torrey Pines Golf Club for the 2022 Farmers Insurance Open.
I personally consider this event the true start of the PGA Tour season as it draws big names, a loaded prize pool, and a difficult test; something many golf fans have been craving.
Torrey Pines Golf Club (South) is a Par 72 measuring 7,569 yards. Golfers will play three rounds on the South Course and one round on the North Course.
The South Course is the far more difficult of the two and features Poa annua greens. The North Course is 7,258 yards and features Bentgrass greens.
The 2022 Farmers Insurance Open field is a full-field event comprised of 156 golfers. The field is very strong and will include Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson, Xander Schauffele, Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas, Bryson DeChambeau, and Tony Finau.
2022 Farmers Insurance Open Outright Bets
Bryson DeChambeau (+2200)(DraftKings)
When evaluating an odds board, there are a handful of golfers who I believe need to be bet on when they eclipse the +2000 threshold. DeChambeau is one of those golfers. With eight PGA Tour victories on his resume, there are very few golfers on Tour who carry the same amount of win equity as the mercurial 28-year-old.
Despite two missed cuts in his only two starts at The Farmers Insurance Open, I still believe Torrey Pines is a good course fit for Bryson. It is a long and classical golf course, and he’s had plenty of success on similar tracks throughout his career. Growing up in California, Bryson has established himself as one of the best west coast poana putters on Tour, with four of his professional wins coming on the putting surface. He may not have the results at Torrey Pines, but he has had great recent success in California. He had some strong finishes at Riviera Country Club (5th in 2020, 15th in 2019) and finished 4th at the 2020 PGA Championship at TPC Harding Park (San Francisco). Not to be forgotten, DeChambeau was also involved at the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines before collapsing down the stretch.
Bryson has the distance off of the tee and underrated short game and putting to tame Torrey Pines.
Tony Finau (+2800) (Bet365):
Despite the mediocre performance last week, there is little doubt that Tony Finau plays his best golf during the PGA Tour’s California swing. In 2021, Finau finished 4th, 2nd, 2nd in at American Express, Farmers, and Genesis exemplifying his California prowess. At Torrey Pines specifically, the 32-year-old has arguably the most impressive course history of anyone in the field. In his past five starts at the event his finishes are: 4th, 6th, 13th, 6th, 2nd.
Finau would be the first to tell you that he expects better of himself at PGA West, but the start last week wasn’t all bad. Statistically, he played relatively well gaining 2.8 strokes on approach in two rounds. Torrey Pines is a better fit for Finau’s skill set. He can let it rip off the tee and take advantage of a long golf course that many other players in the field don’t have the firepower for.
There were questions in the past about whether or not Finau could actually win a golf tournament but his victory at The Northern Trust should put those whispers to rest. He is capable of getting it done and this is the spot on the schedule where a win is most likely.
Matthew Wolff (+6600) (Bet365):
When a golfer comes off of a missed cut in an event in which he was a popular player, oftentimes we see a “missed cut discount” the following week. I believe we are getting a good opportunity to buy low on Matthew Wolff this week. It’s no secret that the 22-year-old is extremely volatile, and with volatile players come missed cuts. However, I also believe there is a good deal of win equity in Wolff. He has proven in strong fields that he can compete with the best in the world and rise to the occasion.
While missed cuts are often a sign of a golfer being in poor form, the same rules haven’t necessarily applied to Wolff throughout the early stages of his career. In 2019, the former Oklahoma State standout missed the cut at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and went on to earn his first PGA Tour victory the following week at the 3M Open. Similarly in 2020, Wolff missed the cut at the Travelers Championship, and responded the next week by coming in second place at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
Plenty of golfers show a run of good form before breaking through for a PGA Tour win, but Matthew Wolff isn’t one of them.
Francesco Molinari (+10000) (Bet365):
Less than two years ago, Francesco Molinari was widely regarded as one of the best golfers on the planet. Since then, the Italian has been on a steep downward trajectory. Since his collapse on the back nine at Augusta, he has only four top ten’s on the PGA Tour. Perhaps not coincidentally, all four of those top ten’s have taken place in the state of California.
Last season, Molinari had a brief span of a month when he was playing great golf akin to the Molinari of 2019. That stretch started at The American Express and ended at The Genesis. Three of the four events in that span ended with a top ten (8,10,8). After finishing in sixth place last week at The American Express, it would seem that history may be repeating itself. The 39-year-old finished in sixth place and looked exceptional doing it. He gained 4.7 strokes from tee to green in the two measured rounds at PGA West Stadium Course, including 2.2 on approach.
If by chance, the elite version of Francesco Molinari is back, this is a very small price to pay for the opportunity to buy back in.
Opinion & Analysis
AVL: My U.S. Amateur local qualifying experience
This past Monday, I played in the U.S. Amateur local qualifier at Rock Creek Country Club in Portland, Oregon. A full tee sheet from 7:30 a.m. to 1:55 p.m., the top 11 scores would make it to the U.S. Amateur final qualifying.
I teed off at 10:48 a.m.. With the 7:30 am tee time, you can get a feel for the leaders’ pace, and they were off and running on the challenging setup at Rock Creek.
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Getting to the highlight of the round on the par five 17th, a drive up the left side and 212 yards left to the front hole location. I took out a 5-iron with plans of middle of the green. The ball ended up 8 feet left of the hole, pin high. A slight downhill putt dropped in for an eagle 3 on the 17th. With the cut line looking to be anywhere from -2 to even par. This was the boost I had been waiting for all day.
With making par from the trees on 18, it was time to wait for a potential playoff with a posted score of one under par 71.
Three hours later, it was playoff time. 8 players for 6 spots. I made par on the playoff hole, which was good enough to advance to the U.S. Amateur final qualifying in July. USGA qualifiers sure deliver on all of the emotions in golf!
Club Junkie
Building my 2026 gamer WITB: Ranking the contenders and new putter projects – Club Junkie Podcast
The annual What’s In The Bag build is underway, and on this episode of Club Junkie, Brian breaks down the clubs currently leading the race for a spot in his 2026 gamer setup. From drivers and fairway woods to irons, wedges, and shafts, he ranks the equipment that’s performing best and explains what’s separating the front runners from the rest of the field.
Brian also heads into the workshop to discuss several putter projects currently on the bench. From head options and shaft choices to build ideas and testing plans, he shares what he’s working on and which putters could become serious contenders for the bag this season.
If you’re a gear junkie who loves equipment testing, club building, and the never-ending pursuit of the perfect setup, this episode is for you.
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Club Junkie
Tour Edge Exotics mini driver review + TaylorMade Spider ZT Max first look – Club Junkie
On this episode of Club Junkie, I put the new Tour Edge Exotics Mini Driver to the test and break down the performance, forgiveness, distance, and where it fits compared to a traditional driver or strong fairway wood. If you have been curious about adding a mini driver to the bag, this one is worth a look.
I also dive into the new TaylorMade Spider ZT Max putter that was recently spotted and discuss the growing zero torque putter trend. Plus, there is a closer look at the new Project X Titan Yellow shaft showing up on the PGA Tour and what makes it different from other profiles currently out there.
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