The short, Aloha swing continues this week with the Sony Open at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu. The first full event of 2018 is another tournament where you can expect very low scoring as players enjoy a generous beginning to the new year. Last year, Justin Thomas dominated the event. He opened the tournament with an 11-under 59, finishing 27-under to win by an impressive seven-shot margin.

Waialae offers up some of the most challenging fairways to hit on Tour, but with short rough it shouldn’t pose too many problems. Exceptional ball striking and low scores on par 4’s will prove very important this week. Five par 4’s fall in the range of 400-450 yards, while another five fall between 450-500 yards. Excellent iron play will be vital.

Selected Tournament Odds (vis Bet365)

• Jordan Spieth 5/1
• Justin Thomas 8/1
• Mark Leishman 16/1
• Brian Harman 16/1
• Kevin Kisner 20/1
• Russell Henley 30/1
• Tony Finau 33/1

The favorite this week is once again Jordan Spieth. The Texan’s fine ball striking and accurate iron play continued last week as he finished solo ninth. It was only an uncharacteristically poor four days on the greens that stopped him from getting into the thick of things. Spieth tied for his second-worst putting performance of his entire career, dropping 3.8 strokes on the greens to the field. His tee-to-green he remained impressive, however, finishing only behind Dustin Johnson in Strokes Gained.

A return to his usual putting may well prove to be the deciding factor in whether or not Spieth can triumph this week, as his iron play is currently sharper than anyone else in the field. It’s understandable that the 5/1 quotes will interest many people, as it’s logical to assume Spieth won’t putt anywhere near as poorly as he did last week. I certainly won’t be making an argument against that, but I’m prepared to look deeper into the field for greater value.

My opening pick for the week is a man who failed to deliver a victory in 2017, but I would be shocked should he not pick up a W this year. Tony Finau (33/1) has begun his 2017/18 season in promising fashion. He was runner up at the Safeway Open before finishing 11th at the WGC-HSBC Champions in China. In his last event, he managed a 16th-place finish at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open despite the worst putting display of his career (he dropped almost seven strokes to the field on the greens). The fact that he was able to finish T16 that week highlights how well Finau has been hitting it.

In his last 12 rounds, Finau is No. 1 in the field for Strokes Gained Tee To Green and sixth in Ball Striking. Those are the statistics of a guy who is very close to putting it all together. The only thing holding him back at the moment is his putting. Yet despite his atrocious performance on the greens at the Shriners, he still has a marginally positive Strokes Gained Putting statistic combined over his last five tournaments. He recorded his best finish here last year out of three attempts with a T20. His trends suggest he has every chance to mightily improve on that once again this year.

My second pick is a man who oozes confidence on certain courses. Zach Johnson (35/1) has been very quiet since his last win almost three years ago, but recently his game has slowly been coming back. He had been suffering with his usually reliable iron play, but lately that has been improving. Johnson sits 15th in Strokes Gained Approaching The Green in this field over his last 12 rounds. He also sits fourth in the field over his last 24 rounds from the crucial 400-450 yard range for this week.

Not only does it look as if Johnson’s wedge game is strong at the moment, but his putting is deadly. He sits first in the field over his last 24 rounds for Strokes Gained Putting. Johnson is a man who seems to always play well on courses he loves. He has multiple wins at La Cantera Golf Club, multiple wins at Colonial Country Club, and he’s a serial contender at TPC Deere Run. It certainly seems that Waialae is another course that really suits his game. He won the event back in 2009 and he has finished in the top-10 in three of his last four outings.

Si-Woo Kim (60-1) is often a feast or famine type of player, but after last week’s performance the quotes of 60/1 seem quite high to me. The South Korean hit it beautifully last week. He was fourth in the field for Strokes Gained Approaching The Green, and only a poor performance on the greens prevented him from a likely top-5 finish. His below-average putting is not unusual, but when he has a half decent week on the greens he has the capability to dominate a field — just like we saw at The Players Championship last year. He has only ever played Waialae once before; he finished solo fourth in 2016. There is no doubt Si-Woo is a much more polished player now than he was then, and if he can strike the ball as he did last week then he should be able to get himself into the mix on Sunday.

The final pick I like this week is a consistent performer who often flies under the radar. Over his last 12 rounds, William McGirt (60/1) has been producing some fine golf. He is second only to Jordan Spieth in this field in Total Strokes Gained. He is 10th in ball striking, seventh off the tee and third in putting. He has only cracked the top-20 in four previous visits to Waialae, but he is 4/4 in cuts made, a statistic that may bode well for anyone thinking of adding him to their DraftKings lineup. His form was very solid in the fall with finishes of T25-T10-T8, and his stock may be a little undervalued currently.

Recommended Bets

• Tony Finau 33/1
• Zach Johnson 35/1
• Si-Woo Kim 60/1
• William McGirt 60-1