Opinion & Analysis
The Tour’s New Strokes Gained Stats: What do they mean and how can you use them?
What is Strokes Gained anyway?
Don’t feel stupid if you have to ask this question. I deal with many people who make their living in the golf business and do not really understand this concept – and forget about the TV commentators. Simply stated, Strokes Gained is the best thing to happen to golf analysis since the game was invented. It renders the one-dimensional, traditional golf statistics virtually obsolete as it provides an accurate assessment of every player’s relative skill in each of the four categories of the game.
Strokes Gained evaluates each shot by comparing it to a standard derived from a computer model of performance. The starting position of the shot and its distance from the hole have a value as do the end position and distance. The values are based upon statistical analysis of all of the PGA Tour rounds since the advent of Shotlink data in 2004. The values for every possible distance and position represent the average # of strokes to hole out from each position.
Here’s how the Strokes Gained (or Lost) are calculated:
- Start value – (End value + # strokes need to get there)
Here’s a quick example:
- Start: 8-foot putt opportunity. End: Holed (1-putt)
- Start value: 1.50 – (End value: 0.0 – 1.0 to get there) = .5 Strokes Gained
- The player gained/saved half a shot. A 2-Putt would have lost half a shot
A bit more background
The PGA Tour launched Strokes Gained Putting in 2011. A second feature, Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, was added in 2014. This was applauded by most as the long game “analysis,” when in fact it was simply everything else but putting, no analysis at all. If a player enjoyed Strokes Gained Putting of +1.00 but scored at exactly the level of the field, his Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green would be -1.00, simple subtraction.
The new stats and what they mean
In late May 2016, the Tour added three new Strokes Gained (SG) analysis pieces:
- SG Off-the-Tee: Considers all drives on par-4 and par-5 holes. Say goodbye to the most useless stat in golf: Fairways Hit. This new off-the-tee stat includes not only fairways hit or missed and the relative distances accomplished, but more importantly, the relative severity of the misses, or what I refer to as driving errors. Including these misses is critical. I have analyzed more than a few events in which the top-5 finishers hit fewer fairways than the field, but their overall driving was heads and shoulders better. Clearly, a new performance yardstick was sorely needed.
- SG Approach-the-Green: Considers any approach shot that starts more than 30 yards from the edge of the green. This number also reflects distance and accuracy of the good shots as well as the misses.
- SG Around-the-Green: Considers all shots starting from within 30 yards of the edge of the green, the Tour’s measure of the short game. It includes all positions: fairway, rough, and sand. This stat is driven by proximity to the hole of the shots (how close they are hit), but also includes the not-so-rare mistakes, or shots that miss the green. Unfortunately, these often costly missed short game shots have never counted or been visible in any of the 653 stats that the Tour publishes. At least now they are being counted.
Add the SG Putting stat to these three and we now have the entire Strokes Gained puzzle. It provides much more clarity into each player’s true strengths and weaknesses, and they all have them!
How can you apply Strokes Gained to your game?
Unfortunately, without a detailed performance model, one cannot implement the system. However, with the growing popularity of Strokes Gained, a number of applications have been introduced. If you Google “Strokes Gained Websites” you will see quite a few options. I, of course, recommend mine, ShotByShot.com, as I have been doing it longer than anyone and have a better understanding of the process and 250.000+ rounds of comparative “Target data.” This unique database helps players at every level clearly identify the nature of their strengths and weaknesses.
If you are looking for insight into your game where you do not have to buy anything, please see my recent GolfWRX article: How to track some of the most important stats in golf.
Opinion & Analysis
AVL: My U.S. Amateur local qualifying experience
This past Monday, I played in the U.S. Amateur local qualifier at Rock Creek Country Club in Portland, Oregon. A full tee sheet from 7:30 a.m. to 1:55 p.m., the top 11 scores would make it to the U.S. Amateur final qualifying.
I teed off at 10:48 a.m.. With the 7:30 am tee time, you can get a feel for the leaders’ pace, and they were off and running on the challenging setup at Rock Creek.
View this post on Instagram
Getting to the highlight of the round on the par five 17th, a drive up the left side and 212 yards left to the front hole location. I took out a 5-iron with plans of middle of the green. The ball ended up 8 feet left of the hole, pin high. A slight downhill putt dropped in for an eagle 3 on the 17th. With the cut line looking to be anywhere from -2 to even par. This was the boost I had been waiting for all day.
With making par from the trees on 18, it was time to wait for a potential playoff with a posted score of one under par 71.
Three hours later, it was playoff time. 8 players for 6 spots. I made par on the playoff hole, which was good enough to advance to the U.S. Amateur final qualifying in July. USGA qualifiers sure deliver on all of the emotions in golf!
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Brian also heads into the workshop to discuss several putter projects currently on the bench. From head options and shaft choices to build ideas and testing plans, he shares what he’s working on and which putters could become serious contenders for the bag this season.
If you’re a gear junkie who loves equipment testing, club building, and the never-ending pursuit of the perfect setup, this episode is for you.
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I also dive into the new TaylorMade Spider ZT Max putter that was recently spotted and discuss the growing zero torque putter trend. Plus, there is a closer look at the new Project X Titan Yellow shaft showing up on the PGA Tour and what makes it different from other profiles currently out there.
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Scott Carlson
Jun 30, 2016 at 8:59 pm
This is great stuff, Peter. This is very similar to metrics used by financial professionals/analysts to compare the performance of securities to others within the same industry. Peer analysis allows the investor to gain an understanding into the unique competitive advantages a company has against its competitors. Now, this may be one individual financial or operational category that far exceeds peer performance (e.g. return on equity) or a comprehensive set of metrics that provide consistent outperformance (e.g. market share growth to earnings growth to debt/equity ratio). Also, in a similar fashioin, MLB scouts have used sabermetrics with great success to determine WAR (wins above replacement) to get more useful and objective performance measures of prospects and current players.
To the other commenters that seem to have a very basic understanding of mathematics…you don’t buy a company’s stock because you like a their products or they have lots of revenue, rather, you buy their stock because they show a consistent and unique competitive advantage over time relative to their peers. This is the same situation…relative performance analysis!
I work in junior golf (AJGA) and getting this information to college golf coaches would be HUGE in helping them with their perpetually tightening recruiting budgets…all the way from large D1 programs down to NAIA schools. I understand the tracking will be a significant barrier, but ShotByShot may help (post-round). Offering this analysis to our 6,500+ members would be an enormous benefit in helping them improve their games and/or earn that prized scholarship.
Another thing that would be cool is to perform a regression analysis to the existing Tour data to determine correlation patterns/trends to the basic stats (like SG Off the Tee to Total Driving and Fairway Hit %) and then apply those patterns/trends to historical data over time to see how a player fares to some of golf’s greatest legends. Surely the basic data exists back to the early to mid 20th century!
Awesome work!!!
Peter
Jul 5, 2016 at 3:29 pm
Scott,
Thanks for your very supportive comment. As to our SG analysis being of help to AJGA and/or college golf programs, most of our 150+ coaches that use our program with their players have active junior programs. Juniors have become such a large part of our business that we added 9-hole data entry and analysis early this year. In addition, we work with several college teams but could always like to see the word get out to more.
If you have any ideas on how we might collaborate, please contact me at [email protected].
Patricknorm
Jun 22, 2016 at 3:02 pm
I like when logic gives you data. In this case the numbers don’t lie. For a pro though it’s abundantly clear that your ability to outdrive everyone, hit a shorter iron into the green ( which should be more accurate) and then have shorter putts, you should shoot lower scores.
Tiger Woods, at his peak was a superb driver of the ball, a better iron player, which meant he holed more putts. The same went for Jack Nicklaus.
Last weekend Dustin Johnson was fantastic off the tee, excellent on his irons, and a good enough putter to stay in contention and eventually win. In today’s game a consistent 330 drive is necessary to get the ball rolling ( metaphorically) in golf. If your relatively accurate it compensates the player by letting him a shorter iron out of the rough towards the green.
Good article. Instinctively I know when my approach shots can’t be chipped in off the green I’m really scrambling for par. And conversely if I’m 50 feet from the pin on the green, it’s no guarantee I’ll make par. Nice to be able to quantify this data.
Peter
Jun 23, 2016 at 10:37 am
Thanks Patricknorm!
Captain Wedge
Jun 22, 2016 at 2:35 pm
In general yeah, you know what parts of your game are weak. But do you know “how many strokes” that part of your game is costing you? Doubt it…
Tony
Jun 22, 2016 at 1:33 pm
All comments here, other than the unsupported “useless endeavor” opinion, point to ‘strokes gained’ as a very useful endeavor. I’m down!
Captain Wedge
Jun 22, 2016 at 3:06 pm
Your comments show how little you know. It’s measured against other non-professionals based on how many rounds they have statistical data for.
Peter
Jun 23, 2016 at 10:42 am
ShotByShot.com measures your Strokes Gained against the averages from the thousands of rounds posted by those in your “Target” Handicap group. Briefly, if a player is a 20 handicap, it does not good to be compared to a 5 handicap or the PGA Tour. We have target ranges from +6 to +4 all the way up to 25 to 29 handicaps.
mikee
Jun 21, 2016 at 10:28 pm
All said and done, the approach shot or should I say, the quality of the approach shot (distance from the pin) is the most important shot in the game. Most of the rest of the stats are relatively meaningless for us amateurs
Captain Wedge
Jun 22, 2016 at 2:32 pm
I don’t think they are meaningless. I used to track all my one-dimensional stats (Fairways, GIRs, and Putts). Now those are meaningless bc at the end of the day they told me nothing about my final score as there were no trends to them. Strokes Gained actually pinpoints where your game was strong vs. where it cost you strokes. I’d like to see these stats on my own game. My only issue is having to track and document EVERY shot. Not really something I want to do when I want to relax and play a round of golf. Maybe I’ll try it on a few rounds here and there.
Peter
Jun 23, 2016 at 10:50 am
Captain Wedge, thanks for your support. I have purposely streamlined the data requirements of ShotByShot.com because I too did not want a lot of work when I was enjoying a round or competing. Try it, you will see it is extremely easy once you understand the system and the apps make it even easier.
Peter
Jun 23, 2016 at 10:47 am
Not so mikee! I have found that from Tour players up to 20+ handicaps, we are all snowflakes and find our unique way to shoot our number. While there may be trends and certain parts of the game occupy a larger piece of the pie, everyone has distinct Strengths and Weaknesses. The challenge is to discover what and why they are so that they can be properly addressed.
ooffa
Jun 21, 2016 at 1:24 pm
Easy to understand. But ultimately a useless endeavor. Hey, I putted badly today I better practice, serves the same purpose.
Peter
Jun 21, 2016 at 2:06 pm
But how do you know when you putted badly? # of putts? Strokes Gained is accurate. If relying on # of putts, one should also balance their checkbook based upon the # of checks written without regard to the $ amounts.
James
Jun 21, 2016 at 4:35 pm
To build on your point, ‘I putted badly’ is a complete subjective. I might say I’ve putted badly, but if in fact I putted to my average, then practicing my putting is pointless, because it was probably my irons that let me down
Steve
Jun 21, 2016 at 8:01 pm
To argue against your point – If you think you “putted badly” but actually putted to your average, your average probably isn’t very good… In that case, putting practice is still very necessary…
Shark
Jun 21, 2016 at 9:34 pm
You may think you putted ‘badly’ based on number of putts, but actually putted from a greater distance due to decreased accuracy of iron shots. A larger improvement may be gained from practicing iron accuracy, thus leaving shorter putts.
J Zilla
Jun 22, 2016 at 4:37 pm
Yeah. I vaguely remember some story about Tiger early in his career complaining to Butch about his putting woes at the time. Tiger started toward to the practice green but Butch stopped him and handed him an iron. “Putting’s not your problem, your approach shots are.” (Or something to that effect)
Peter
Jun 23, 2016 at 10:58 am
My golf professional used my original program years ago while trying to qualify for the senior tour. He completed my scorecards for all rounds and mailed them to me. When he came home we met to go thru his analysis. I started by asking for his assessment of his Strengths and weaknesses. He said: “I hit the ball as well as anyone out there and my short game is strong but I am a terrible putter.” I then shared my Strokes Lost/Saved (Strokes Gained) analysis that showed that he was actually a very good putter but while he was a long driver, he made too many driving errors, missed too many GIR’s and put too much pressure on his short game and putting.
The game is a roller coaster. Without a way of routinely recording performance, it is very difficult to know where one may need the most work.