22 Comments

1. 

   Hudson

   Feb 12, 2015 at 4:39 pm

   He could have won by laying up further as the strokes gained calculation shows the following:

   The shots on the 18th (real situation):

   570 Tee = 0.35 stroke gained
   235 Fairway = -0.32 stroke lost (the cost of this lay-up !)
   75 Fairway -0.11 = stroke lost
   19ft Green -0.15 = stroke lost
   1ft Green 0 = nothing lost/gained

   Total of strokes lost = -0.23 in reality

   “Ideal” scenario: laying up around 25 yards to hope for a 5 feet putt and win (!):

   570y Tee = 0.35 stroke gained
   235y Fairway = -0.03 stroke lost
   25y Fairway = 0.22 stroke gained (assuming this player can approach the ball to 5ft and hole it)
   5ft Green = 0.23 stroke gained

   Total of strokes gained = 0.77 on the “ideal” scenario

   The difference between the real shots and the “ideal” scenario is 1 stroke (-0.23-0.77) and a victory !!!

   This is real mathematics ;-)))))))))

   See how I track the strokes gained now and knows when to lay-up or not:
   http://golf-made-in-us.blogspot.com/2015/02/profiling-your-golf-game-time-to-shoot.html

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2. 

   James W

   Feb 11, 2015 at 9:50 am

   If he would have went for it and dunked it into the water or put himself in position to lose on the 18th, our thoughts would have been, “I can’t believe he just threw an interception and didn’t hand the ball off when they were on the 1 yard line with one the best short yardage running backs in the league with 3 downs and 1 timeout left….” Oops, wrong sport…but same situation?

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3. 

   patricknorm

   Feb 10, 2015 at 1:51 pm

   If you remember the sequence of events on the 18th, during the first playoff Jason Day played an iron on his second shot and fortunately went right of the green and probably would not have made the green given the wind conditions. For Holmes trying to win but more importantly, not trying to lose the tournament he made the rational choice.
   Holmes was clear that going long behind the green (on 18) was not an option because it,s a tough up and down.
   On the second playoff hole on the par three, Holmes airmailed the green and proved what a tough up and down it was. It cost him the tournament. Jason Day was clearly the better iron player that day.

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4. 

   T-MAC

   Feb 10, 2015 at 9:23 am

   Wind was in his face, and after seeing his playing partner come up short that seemed to influence his decision. I don’t know if JB had a 5-wood in his bag. Announcers said his longest iron was a 3 iron and perhaps he didn’t think he could get there into the wind.
   I would have liked to see him hit his 3-wood. Just hit something that you know will get you over the water. I don’t care if it goes into the stands behind the green. You get a drop and chipping it from there would have been easier than trying to throw it past the pin and spinning it back (without spinning it into the water) from 80 yards.

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   • 

     Carlos Danger

     Feb 12, 2015 at 3:03 pm

     Disagree (respectfully) with your logic on hitting 3 wood and just trying to get it over the green opposed to hitting a wedge into a uphill green and backing it up. If there is one thing every pro is good and should be good at, its hitting wedges into up hill greens and spinning them back. I dont care who you are, trying to hit a delicate shot out of TP’s ruff down hill with water at the bottom is not ideal.

     Also, his comment about the downhill lie was all I needed to hear. Hitting any type of fairway/hybrid off of a downhill lie is a daunting task, especially when you need to clear a pond 235 and the tournament is literally won or lost on that shot.

     He did the right thing on that hole

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5. 

   Nickeynumbers

   Feb 9, 2015 at 10:25 pm

   How far to carry? downhill lie? with his power easy decision to go for it put ball back in stance a bit and if miss bail out to the right and/or short then chip or pitch to 10′ or less. What iron would he have used? 5 iron? 4 iron?

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6. 

   random dude

   Feb 9, 2015 at 8:01 pm

   Big T2 for RIFE putters

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7. 

   Andrew Cooper

   Feb 9, 2015 at 3:47 pm

   300 yard drive, 230 yards to pin- a 570 yard hole?

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   • 

     steve

     Feb 9, 2015 at 8:05 pm

     not all golf holes are straight. and are not measure straight from tee box to the pin. also you can cut the hole by going over the trees and of course 300 yards could been a carry distance. play much golf??

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     • 

       Andy B

       Feb 9, 2015 at 10:19 pm

       While yes, not all holes are straight, the 18th at Torrey Pines is a straight tee shot and straight approach. The yardage displayed on television coverage is typically from the back tees or furthest point the tournament will play it all week. The tournament moves the tee’s on many holes each day to present different shots and strategies. It was probably moves forward Sunday to allow for more drama, such as players being in the go or no go range and having to make that tough decision. In my opinion the 18th was set up perfect for Sunday.

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     • 

       Andrew Cooper

       Feb 10, 2015 at 8:10 am

       It’s a very slight left to right dogleg so tees were up I reckon.

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   • 

     leo

     Feb 10, 2015 at 2:46 am

     many holes,especially par 5’s are not played at the stated length

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8. 

   marcel

   Feb 9, 2015 at 3:46 pm

   Holmes played the highest percentage golf. Day played just bit better

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9. 

   marcel

   Feb 9, 2015 at 3:44 pm

   really silly assumption “if he”… this is not about “no guts no glory” it all about playing the right shots… no such thing as laying up… 18 is not really friendly for “green in 2” – Holmes played the highest percentage golf… J Day played just bit better

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10. 

    Steve

    Feb 9, 2015 at 2:27 pm

    No guts, no glory.

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11. 

    Old putt

    Feb 9, 2015 at 12:58 pm

    Big hitter doesn’t take the chance maybe he listened to old TV broadcasts constantly talking about the smart play seemingly always the lay up. Announcers not so prone to that anymore. The only thing that counts is the result.

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12. 

    Albiemanmike

    Feb 9, 2015 at 12:48 pm

    Why would you even question the guy he told you he was confident playing his normal shot to the green in two on that hole in that circumstance. Odds are he knows his game better than you do and if he had gone against his gut feeling he would have been long and left and dead. He played the percentage shot and just didn’t hit a very good shot. Odds are the majority of the time the guy would have hit it pretty stiff and been looking at a reasonable putt for birdie.

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13. 

    Jason

    Feb 9, 2015 at 12:32 pm

    Jay–the odds probably go right out the window when you’re standing the 72nd hole of a PGA tourney. I wish he had went for it. The famous line from Tin Cup, “240 to carry and the tour star is laying up.”

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14. 

    Jay

    Feb 9, 2015 at 12:12 pm

    “Odds are…..he would have been putting from closer than 21 feet, 3 inches with his fourth.” What odds? 27%? 51%? 72%? How did you compute those odds? What are JB Holmes stats for hitting greens from 230 yards? What was avg proximity to pin after being long/left at 18?

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15. 

    blake

    Feb 9, 2015 at 11:31 am

    Great to see JB back in the thick of it after brain surgery! Hope he can compete in a major this year.

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16. 

    Tom

    Feb 9, 2015 at 11:28 am

    Never a good thing to hit a shot with doubts and sounds like he had them if he would have tried for it.

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17. 

    Jonny B

    Feb 9, 2015 at 10:40 am

    Glad to see JB back in the thick of things the past couple seasons. Good for him and good for golf. I like his “no regrets” approach, he made a decision and he is sticking by it. Kudos.

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