Opinion & Analysis

Is Patrick Reed the most promising young American golfer?

Published

11 years ago

Jan 14, 2015

The golfing world seems to be constantly plagued with an inability to nail down its feelings toward Patrick Reed, who won the Hyundai Tournament of Champions at Kapalua on Monday.

They buried him for his “top-5 golfer in the world” proclamation — a curious response when so many complain over the blandness of the present-day Tour player. Oddly, Reed reversed course at the ~~Biennial American Beatdown~~ Ryder Cup, as winning and shushing a heckling crowd in the most jingoistic of events apparently solved everything (on the American base).

Just months later, the use of a gay slur on air — picked up by on-course microphones –precipitated a wave of backlash against the young American. Reed scored some points for his swift action in potentially saving his wife’s life following a seizure in a bathtub, but support for Reed overall remains tepid.

This indecision has not translated though to the views on Reed’s talent.

Here there seems to be little doubt: The 24-year-old is a star in the making. The talent of course is there, but something else about him permeates — his play is so fearless. He’s aggressive, he’s confident, he thrives under pressure, he’s a closer, he’s a winner.

And it’s hard to argue with that sentiment, as Reed has accrued four PGA Tour victories before age 25, only the fourth player to accomplish this feat (Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy and Sergio Garcia are the others). The sky is the limit for this purveyor of bravado, and at this point a front is starting to form in support of hailing Reed as the most promising young American golfer.

And while he no doubt deserves plenty of praise for his on-course record and future trajectory, I think it would be wise to halt this hype train.

Maybe that sounds crazy. Reed after all has won FOUR times on the PGA Tour, and carries with him a swagger maybe unmatched by any golfer in the present day. He’s not afraid to make the unpopular choice and seems to be just fine on important Sundays.

But the reasons against his top perch among the crop of promising young Americans are too potent to discount.

The fact that Reed is a closer and a gutty final round competitor has already been well-established by the golfing faction, but such fervent and unrelenting praise doesn’t totally mesh with the facts.

The 24-year-old has experienced five real opportunities at a PGA Tour victory in his young career. He’s capitalized on four of these occasions, but one involved a seven-shot, 54-hole lead that he put himself in danger of losing late in the final round, and his one losing effort was a miserable one — a final-round 77 that dropped him from the third round lead outside the top 10.

A three-for-five showing of Sunday mettle is still quite enviable. It’s a small sample size though, and this closer inspection of Reed’s Sunday efforts seems to indicate that vulnerability is a larger part of the picture than Reed’s “closer” image would indicate.

Yeah, so? Reed is extremely talented and has already proven his adeptness at big events with a WGC, even if his “closer” reputation isn’t as potent as the public believes, a major has to be in his near future. Maybe the Jordan Spieths and the Rickie Fowlers — Reed’s main competition for this top spot — have high finishes in major championships, but they haven’t tasted the winning formula against a world-class field. Doesn’t Reed hold a distinctive edge here?

Not necessarily. Adam Scott won more often at a young age and was more furiously predicted for superstardom than Reed following his Players Championship win at age 23, but it took the Aussie more than a half-decade to start seriously contending in majors and nearly a full one to win his first.

OK, but Reed has something Scott, Spieth and Fowler don’t: An unwavering mountain of confidence that will fuel him up the mountain. Yeah, he’s cocky and that’s going to ride him straight to superstardom.

It’s funny that sounds sort of familiar… kind of like what was being said about Robert Gamez circa 1990! And we all know the legendary career that he had, one that didn’t include another PGA Tour win for the next 15 years following his electric first two.

The implication isn’t that Reed is on track to follow in Gamez’s path, rather that bravado can only have a minimal effect, if any. Talent and the work you put in matter far more to a successful on-course career than having the guts to shush a hostile crowd of fans.

And if this wasn’t enough to scare you away from believing in Reed’s “rightful place” perched atop the young American rankings, his inconsistencies should.

Since the beginning of 2013, Reed has won four times in 57 PGA Tour events, which is highly impressive in golf, of course. Far less impressive are his 10 total top-10s in this span, his 20 total top-25s and a whopping 17 missed cuts.

For such a top player, he sure contends very little and misses an alarming amount of weekends. Yes, he takes great advantage of these few opportunities, but this doesn’t hold up over the long term. Look at the playing record of any player who won consistently over a long term, and you’ll notice a far better contention record.

All in all, this is not a forum meant to bash Reed or imply that he is not capable of a great career, because he certainly is.

But it appears that the aura gaining around Reed is stronger than the reality, and there are too many negative signs to believe that the 24-year-old can yet be considered the most promising among the young Americans.

The top crown still goes to Spieth, who I’ve already warned about overhyping. And honestly, Patrick Reed might be second on this list (although it still depends if Keegan Bradley qualifies at age 28). It is a distant second though.

Reed’s ceiling is high and he does have the potential for a superstar career, but characterizing him as the young American who you should bet your chips on the most is misleading.

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Kevin Casey

Kevin's fascination with the game goes back as long as he can remember. He has written about the sport on the junior, college and professional levels and hopes to cover its proceedings in some capacity for as long as possible. His main area of expertise is the PGA Tour, which is his primary focus for GolfWRX. Kevin is currently a student at Northwestern University, but he will be out into the workforce soon enough. You can find his golf tidbits and other sports-related babble on Twitter @KevinCasey19. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: September 2014

14 Comments

Joe

Jan 20, 2015 at 1:30 pm

Let’s not forget what Rickie did in the majors last year and the strides he and Butch have made on his swing.

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Matthew Carter

Jan 16, 2015 at 11:21 pm

What Patrick has accomplished on the PGA Tour with four wins is very impressive.
At the Ryder Cup he was lights out. Am I a fan of Patrick, no. I tend to respect individuals who walk in humility. Maybe I don’t understand Patrick and maybe I need to be give a little grace where grace is needed.
Who do I think is the top young American ? After what he did in Australia and the numerous times the announcers shared how handled himself at media day and the welcoming dinner, Jordan is a class act. He lets his performance on the course do all the talking.
A close second is Ricky Fowler. He’s flashy, cool and humble all in one. Great for golf and a solid role model for kids.

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Mark

Jan 15, 2015 at 10:53 am

I still think it’s ridiculous that Reed got all that flack for saying he was a top 5 player. It was an answer to a direct question about where he would rank himself and at the time he WAS playing some of the best golf in the world. The World Rankings work on a two year formula and I would say that at 14th he’s not too far away.

I think your premise of inconsistency ruling him out as the next American star is wrong. The next big American star is NOT going to be Tiger-like and be in contention every week, etc. That ship has passed. Right now he IS the best young American player because it’s all about winning. I do think Speith is on the top of that list but I think the fire, confidence and fearlessness of Reed’s game puts him right there behind him at a close #2. And as for Ricky, when he actually wins something he can get in the conversation.

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Jafar

Jan 15, 2015 at 9:31 am

I think Spieth and Reed are neck and neck with this title. Both performed at the Ryder Cup and both won at the End/Beginning of the year at exclusive tournaments.

I think the only thing left is who wins a Major first and how many. Also you need Final Round duel with a prominent European player.

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Rich

Jan 15, 2015 at 7:50 am

NO!

Reply Report comment
Philip

Jan 15, 2015 at 1:01 am

test

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Philip

Jan 15, 2015 at 1:00 am

if you are going to write something stating “And it’s hard to argue with that sentiment, as Reed has accrued four PGA Tour victories before age 25, only the fourth player to accomplish this feat (Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy and Sergio Garcia are the others).” then do some basic research please and get your facts correct.

So you are saying only 4 players in the PGA history have won 4 times before age 25….
Some addition players below and possible more :

Water Hagen won 4 times before turning 25
Phil Mickelson won 5 times before turning 25
Sergio Garcia won 5 times before turning 25
Rory McIlroy won 6 times before turning 25
Jack Nicklaus won 8 times before turning 25
Tiger Woods won 24 times before turning 25 (crap that’s a lot)

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- Kevin Casey
  
  Jan 17, 2015 at 12:15 pm
  
  Forgot to add in the phrase “in the past 20 years.” This wasn’t a lack of research, it was a stat that was going around after Reed’s victory, and I just left this phrase off at the end by accident. Thank you for pointing that out, my mistake in lopping off that important phrase.
  
  Reply Report comment
Kyle

Jan 14, 2015 at 9:55 pm

Honestly hope him and bubba never win again. 2 least favorite golfers by far. Reed should just let his game talk. Bubba is the biggest baby in the game and is a disgrace to golf fans. It’s 2015. People are going to have phones out. Get over it. Oh and that bunker that you left your shot in, it’s not the bunkers fault or anyone else’s except yourself

Reply Report comment
Sean

Jan 14, 2015 at 8:41 pm

Reed: Talented, Pompous, Entertaining, Lack of respect, sounds like a gen x American kid. Best of luck to him. Although I believe that his swing will cause him injury in the future unless he learns how to keep his left side contained as he ages.

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Ronald Montesano

Jan 14, 2015 at 6:27 pm

What I like most about Kevin Casey is his due diligence. He digs out statistics and builds a story around them. He doesn’t find statistics to support a story he has already planned. Kevin, what was Reed’s consistency like in college? Did he contend way more often? If so, remember that he has taken about four steps up from D1USA to PGA Tour. Freak years like Fowler 2014 or Norman 1986 are rare.

I don’t like putting anyone up as the next great player. We have a local PGA pro who used to say that about all his students. Trouble was, the papers and the kids believed it. YHDSY is the best thing to say to a young golfer; keeps her/him humble.

Reply Report comment
- Farris
  
  Jan 16, 2015 at 6:31 pm
  
  What does YHDSY mean?
  
  Reply Report comment
Timbleking

Jan 14, 2015 at 4:20 pm

This guy has an amazing swing, and I love the way he manages the course. I don’t give a f* about anything else.

Reply Report comment
cdvilla

Jan 14, 2015 at 3:59 pm

Everyone gets measured by majors. Grab a major and 10+ career wins, that’s a real accomplishment (see Zach Johnson/Jim Furyk.) I think that Spieth, Reed, and Fowler probably fit closer to this category than the next tier which in my mind is 4 and 20 (Ernie Els/ Ray Floyd.)

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