Opinion & Analysis
Can Spieth follow in Rory’s footsteps?
It’s that time of year again—a strange period where Tiger Woods’ unofficial 18-man event carries nearly as much clout in the World Golf Rankings as his own actual PGA Tour tournament in July.
So thank goodness Jordan Spieth decided to set the world ablaze.
The 21-year-old, the butt of thousands of drinking age jokes (seriously it got really annoying), stormed his way to victory at the Australian Open, posting a final-round 63 in breezy conditions to finish six shots ahead. And then of course there was the encore at Woods’ close get-together, where Spieth smoked the host by 26 shots, and everybody else by at least 10.
The American wunderkind has the golf world buzzing. Already considered a future flag bearer for the United States, Spieth and his recent results have left the golf establishment yearning for 2015 to see what this Texas boy wonder can do next.
And with some believing majors will be in his near future, an important question has started to pop up: Will Spieth’s upcoming season roughly match Rory McIlroy’s sensational 2014?
On the outset, it’s not an unjustified inquiry based on these recent events. The round of the year could very well be that 63. And Spieth’s total victory margin of 16 in consecutive weeks is a feat Woods himself has only reached twice.
But the question is presumptuous. It assumes that Spieth holds a real possibility of matching McIlroy’s recent exploits, when the truth is that the chances are exceedingly unlikely.
That’s right, the precious young American is, in essence, a long shot to follow in McIlroy’s 2014 footsteps. And there’s an ample view to see why.
For one, the increased hype hasn’t been entirely organic. Sure, the actual dominance of these two performances of course factored heavily into the rising expectations, but there’s no doubt the similarities between McIlroy’s end to 2013 and Spieth’s recent surge–namely their winning the Australian Open following disappointing seasons in the public eye–also aided in this production. Spieth was asked about this similarity in his post-tournament press conference in Australia, and some writers have brought it up since. And it serves no purpose but to add phony fuel to the Spieth expectation machine for 2015. It’s a downright lazy way to foster support for Spieth 2015, as any matching facts between McIlroy’s and Spieth’s Aussie victories are pure coincidences, not portenders of the latter’s future performance.
As for those dominating performances, let’s be realistic about the true nature of these tournaments. The Australian Open contains big names at the top, but little overall depth. And Woods’ event, while boasting a strong field, is a relaxed atmosphere with its unofficial status, contains less than 20 competitors and is in a spot in December when golfer motivation is alarmingly low. These were still impressive performances with extraordinary winning margins, but when you shine the light closer these weren’t exactly world-class events Spieth stormed through.
All of this brings more of a realistic shade to those 2015 ambitions, but to truly comprehend Spieth’s long odds, we have to understand just how special McIlroy’s 2014 campaign turned out. No, it’s not an all-time great season—Tiger has at least a few himself that he could say were better—but the numbers are staggering. In 24 total events, four wins, including two majors and the European Tour’s flagship event, 17 top-10s—a few admittedly backdoor—and one lone finish outside of the top-25. The wins, and the magnitude of the triumphs, are what catch the headlines, (and deservedly so), but the lack of truly disastrous results adds worth to the season’s value.
As Alex Myers noted, McIlroy went a whole year in golf and had one truly bad week. That’s incredible.
McIlroy posted this set of performances at 25, while Spieth must strive for those marks as he enters his age-21 season—a near impossible proposition.
Over the past 40 years, no single 21-year-old has put together a season that is an undisputed equal of what McIlroy pieced out in 2014. Woods and Seve Ballesteros are the only two who can claim age-21 seasons that “roughly match” Rory’s 2014—Woods with his four wins and one major in 1997 and Ballesteros with a five-win campaign in 1978. Otherwise nothing comes close to the McIlroy 2014 standard we are looking to reach here.
The next best seasons in this time span belong to Sergio Garcia (three wins, 11 top-10s in 2001), Adam Scott (two wins, nine top-10s in 2002) and Robert Gamez (two wins in 1990). While excellent campaigns from this trio, these don’t quite fit the criteria.
The picking here is slim then, with those age-21 players accomplishing roughly matching seasons to McIlroy 2014 once every 20 years. And the players on the outer section of the orbit are just as pared down.
If anybody could crack into this 21 group, namely the Woods-Ballesteros section, Spieth, based on his talent, is near the top of the list. But he would have to accomplish something that is done basically once every generation, a daunting task even for a player of Spieth’s ability.
And there’s a common theme among this quintet of 21-year-old achievers: They were all long drivers at the time of the season in question—with Woods and Ballesteros at the very top in this category.
That is probably not a coincidence.
Experience is a tough factor to measure in a golfer’s performance, but at age 21 every player lacks it to a large degree, and that deficiency likely hampers any young gun on the course. The long ball is the main way to overcome this disadvantage youth presents—course knowledge and strategy are overrated when you can hit your approach from 30 yards closer—and if you can’t pipe it deep, the trail to early domination becomes a lot more perilous.
Spieth is not a long-hitter by Tour standards, and is of course nowhere near Ballesteros-Woods. The 21-year-old is decidedly average in distance, finishing 89th in the category among 177 qualifying PGA Tour players in 2014 and 80th in a set of 180 the previous season.
All of this presents him another significant obstacle in soaring to Rory-like heights in 2014. Not only must the Texan pull off a once-in-a-generation feat, he has to do so while lacking a main attribute of all the previous men who accomplished something special at age 21.
Matters aren’t looking too good then in trying to reach the McIlroy standard.
Spieth no doubt has a bright future in this game, and at the very least his floor in 2015, and going forward, will be quite high. His game is as all-around as it gets, a circumstance that should shield him from any truly abysmal seasons.
The McIlroy-like visions may not be met, but Spieth’s 2015 won’t be an absolute bust.
With the 21-year-old, the expectations should be high, but fans and media tend to get carried away with this American darling.
Following a rookie year in which he became the youngest winner on the PGA Tour since the 1930s, Spieth was considered a closer. A year later, losing efforts at the Masters and Players Championship were enough to convince observers to flip-flop and call Spieth “the great player who couldn’t close.”
It’s fair to anticipate another victory or two from Spieth in 2015; a major might easily be there for the taking as well. But there’s no need to panic if he doesn’t win, and it’s especially useless to fret if his season doesn’t come close to resembling the success of McIlroy’s 2014.
Spieth is for sure the leader of the American revolution in the professional level, just don’t expect it to be a short battle.
This past Monday, I played in the U.S. Amateur local qualifier at Rock Creek Country Club in Portland, Oregon. A full tee sheet from 7:30 a.m. to 1:55 p.m., the top 11 scores would make it to the U.S. Amateur final qualifying.
I teed off at 10:48 a.m.. With the 7:30 am tee time, you can get a feel for the leaders’ pace, and they were off and running on the challenging setup at Rock Creek.
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Getting to the highlight of the round on the par five 17th, a drive up the left side and 212 yards left to the front hole location. I took out a 5-iron with plans of middle of the green. The ball ended up 8 feet left of the hole, pin high. A slight downhill putt dropped in for an eagle 3 on the 17th. With the cut line looking to be anywhere from -2 to even par. This was the boost I had been waiting for all day.
With making par from the trees on 18, it was time to wait for a potential playoff with a posted score of one under par 71.
Three hours later, it was playoff time. 8 players for 6 spots. I made par on the playoff hole, which was good enough to advance to the U.S. Amateur final qualifying in July. USGA qualifiers sure deliver on all of the emotions in golf!
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The annual What’s In The Bag build is underway, and on this episode of Club Junkie, Brian breaks down the clubs currently leading the race for a spot in his 2026 gamer setup. From drivers and fairway woods to irons, wedges, and shafts, he ranks the equipment that’s performing best and explains what’s separating the front runners from the rest of the field.
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If you’re a gear junkie who loves equipment testing, club building, and the never-ending pursuit of the perfect setup, this episode is for you.
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Golfraven
Dec 17, 2014 at 3:11 pm
Sorry but saying Jordan will not be a true champion because of his lenght is pure nonsense. What makes him a champion already is his dedication, integrity and respect for his team, other players and the game. He certainly figered it out at an age earlier to Rory. Yeah he is sometimes bold in his interviews but this is just hishonesty and confidence – nothing wrong about that, he knows what he wants. Want to see more players of his class. Go on Jordan, don’t be a Tiger!
Golfraven
Dec 17, 2014 at 2:57 pm
OK this may be controversial but I say it, Jordan will win his first green jacket before Rory. Its his time. Like both players and both would be in my dream foursome flight. Both will be leading next ‘Big Three’ generation of players – I cannot decide on the 3rd player at this time (maybe Ricky). Looking forward to see Rors and Jordan competing. Just hope Jordan will not join Nike – that would kill it for me.
Ponjo
Dec 25, 2014 at 3:05 am
HaHa. So playing NIke clubs would ruin it for you how exactly.
Tom Earls
Dec 17, 2014 at 12:01 pm
I would like a little less speculation on who is the next world #1. I like golf. I don’t need to know who is number 1 by some pointg system. They’re all good, and entertaining. The mistake you al make covering golf is focusing on 2 or 3 golfers who are at the top. The following week 6 other guys lead the tournament on Friday and Saturday and the fans have never heard of them, and the announceres are left wondering who is this guy and why isn’t Tiger playing the weekend. Cover them all. At leaset the top 30 or so so when the weekend comes we have at least heard of the leaders.
Thanks.
Tom
Jonny B
Dec 17, 2014 at 10:14 am
Great picture for this article. I think we really could be on the brink of a special rivalry (or chivalry) with these two young guys. Both are incredibly talented. The picture reminds me of Palmer (Spieth) and Player (McIlroy). One of the great rivalries in the history of the game.
j.a.
Dec 16, 2014 at 6:40 am
Jordan Spieth is in a different category than Rory. He plays the precision game. He might go a par 4 with driver an a 9 iron instead driver and a wedge but for sure, that 7 iron will send the ball to where he can secure birdies. Mathematics are simple, a 400m par 4 equals 300m + 100m or 250m + 150m. Moreover, his putting is outstanding.
He might had a beer or two legally while in Australia and something else to celebrate the Aussie Open victory. He’s more than welcome Down Under and I look forward to see him in person again. He will have a great 2015 and beyond.
dapadre
Dec 16, 2014 at 6:34 am
Only time will tell, but the kid has MASSIVE game. If you compare him at his age vs Rors, he was CERTAINLY BETTER. One thing i love about him is he really wants it. He has that Tiger ferociousness which Rors doesnt have. Not saying its bad but I get the felling for Rors everything doesnt revolve around golf but for Spieth it seems to. For those saying he wont win because of length, agree length is very important but we have seen many past players that werent that long that did very well.
Mark
Dec 16, 2014 at 2:37 am
I a word “No”. Spieth is a fine player but is not in the same league as Rory. Not long enough to dominate the modern game.
jgpl001
Dec 16, 2014 at 5:35 pm
Totally agree
He is a fine player, a great putter, and will win loads of tournaments, but Rory is in a totally different league, totally different
marcel
Dec 16, 2014 at 12:34 am
he can sign up with Horizon and then break contract and sue them. otherwise boy has no chance to replicate Rory
j
Dec 15, 2014 at 9:36 pm
“backdoor” top 10. seriously, just because you play well the last day you want to call it a backdoor top 10. you play four days and if you get a top 10 it doesn’t matter how you do it. last time i checked a 65 still counts as 65 on Sunday just as much as it does on any other day. Playing hard on Sunday even when you don’t have a chance to win is a sign of a true competitor, especially for the truly elite players like Tiger, Phil, Rory, etc who judge their years based on victories. It would be much easier to just mail it in and get it to the house and get outta Dodge but Rory plays hard on Sunday. Calling it a backdoor top 10 makes it sound less impressive than it actually is. I guess next time someone takes a 2 shot lead into the final round and shoots 74 to tie for 8th you can call him and congratulate him on his “frontdoor” top 10. Either way you still have to beat the whole field except for around 10 or less people which is great golf.
Mike
Dec 15, 2014 at 8:30 pm
No
Rich
Dec 16, 2014 at 6:29 am
+1
Scotty
Dec 15, 2014 at 11:24 am
Wow I can’t believe I keep hearing ” he hits it too short ”
He just wont by 10 shots on islesworth which is extremely long and difficult
Jordan hits itg plenty long and only 21 plus he can bulk up just like rory in 6 months if he wanted to
He is not “as good” as rory mcilroy but can hold is own and will win 5+ majors for sure
Just my two cents
Pat
Dec 15, 2014 at 1:39 pm
That’s because he’s average off the tee distance wise. Not very accurate either. Kid has a good short game though to make up for his short comings. He doesn’t have nearly the talent and length that McIlroy does and when it’s all said and done, he won’t have nearly as many wins period.
Jadon
Dec 15, 2014 at 11:21 am
Spieth is a monster. We love our Texas boy.
Jake Anderson
Dec 16, 2014 at 6:39 am
no we don’t.
bradford
Dec 15, 2014 at 11:11 am
While I’d love to be proven wrong, it’s unlikely Rory’s 2015 will match his own 2014.
Jake Anderson
Dec 15, 2014 at 10:52 am
Very correctly analyzed. Spieth hits it too short to be a true champion.
Jimmeh
Dec 15, 2014 at 12:46 pm
Luke Donald 2011 might want a say here…
AndyB
Dec 15, 2014 at 7:32 pm
Luke Donald has never won a major, and I have major money saying he never will. Length will keep Spieth from dominating in the majors and winning more than 2-3 in his career. He will be a good player with great moments for years to come, but he will not be on Rory’s level.