Technically, it’s not the start to the PGA Tour season, not with the wrap-around schedule that was unleashed in October following the end to the 2013 FedEx Cup playoffs.

But come on, we all know that fall and winter is reserved for football while the clubs are put up. And the Tour’s top names know this as well, going on vacations and using a several-month hiatus to rest and recover before a nine-month grind begins.

So, this weekend’s Hyundai Tournament of Champions is widely viewed as the start to the season. Gamers especially see this as true since only limited leagues were in motion up until this weekend.

Kapalua Resort’s Plantation Course serves as host to the no-cut, 30-man field where Dustin Johnson is the defending champion. And since everyone else in the field is literally a winner, there aren’t exactly slouches. Make your picks wisely as you don’t want to blow through starts like Ian Poulter through plaid pants.

Every week through the course of this year, we’ll chronicle who we think can be of help to your fantasy lineup, be it through inclusion, obfuscation or exclusion. It’s Risk, Reward, Ruin.

RISK

It’s a 30-man field, thusly 15 golfers won’t get named in this column. Separating a risky element from one that is purely rewarding is minute, and it’s by no means a “next five” scenario. Deciphering the risk usually involves one key thought, such as length off the tee, age or current form.

Jordan Spieth

Everything about the 20-year old Spieth screams success. There’s probably very little the PGA Tour Rookie of the Year would change about his initial season, from his win at the John Deere Classic to finishing T2 at the TOUR Championship to his selection to the Presidents Cup team. He has moxie to win every tournament. When does he pick up his second win?

Zach Johnson

For all intents and purposes, Zach Johnson would be reward material, but Kapalua seems to favor longer hitters who can spray the ball around and still go low. While he’s a solid putter and a great iron player, he’ll have longer shots in consistently, which puts him behind the reward players approach to greens.

Billy Horschel

When Horschel won the Zurich Classic of New Orleans in April of 2013, it was the culmination of a torrid start to his budding career. A star at the University of Florida, Horschel struggled initially on Tour before coming into his own last season and proving to be a strong challenger for years to come. While he found maintaining his high level of success to be challenging in the second half of the year, a break will easily refresh and prepare him for the new year. It could be good to jump on him early while he is mentally sharp.

Russell Henley

Nobody has had a better first professional tournament than Henley, a Georgia star who took stunned the Tour in a wire-to-wire shellacking of the field at the Sony Open. That is next week’s venue, but hey, it’s still Hawaii and so far he’s pretty awesome here. It’s a good time to use him as long as you don’t fear a sophomore slump.

Chris Kirk

Another former Georgia star, he finally broke through and picked up his first win this year, taking advantage of the new Tour schedule by winning this season’s McGladrey Classic at Sea Island, Ga. He’s already got a headstart on form and FedEx Cup points and is a strong, strong golfer. I like him for my lineup this week.

REWARD

As I previously mentioned, you have a limited number of starts to use during the year so pick wisely. I got to the FedEx Cup playoffs last year with one start remaining from Matt Kuchar versus holding onto two for Tiger Woods. My opponent I was trying to hold off for the title had no starts left for either. That is a huge advantage when the field gets whittled down to slim by the TOUR Championship.

Don’t fret over starting a second-tier player over a heavy favorite especially without a cut. Roster the favorite and wait to see if he’s in a position to pick up bonus points. Otherwise, you should come out in a pretty good spot provided those whom you start don’t bomb out completely in comparison to your opponent’s starters.

Dustin Johnson

He is the only previous champion in the field, and even though it was a weather-shortened tournament last year, Johnson has everything in his arsenal to win again, including recent form. He won the WGC- HSBC Champions in Shanghai earlier in this season, which really showed he’s capable of winning at any moment. It was especially rewarding after injury slowed his early progress last year. He’s long off the tee and his polished swing puts him in prime position heading in.

Adam Scott

Winning the Masters was huge. Winning at The Barclays capped an outstanding year, and now Scott is off to a great start with a victory, albeit a minor one, at the PGA Grand Slam of Golf in October in Bermuda. Scott always had the talent, but his mental approach and desire to be the best is at an all-time high. He goes out expecting to win and nothing about his game says he won’t.

Brandt Snedeker

One of the best putters on Tour, Snedeker put two wins on the board last year at notorious wind-venue Pebble Beach and at the RBC Canadien Open. The latter win signaled his return from injury (although he would injure himself again in early November in a segway mishap in China). Assuming he’s 100 percent, with the rest he’s now had, look for Sneds to want to start hot. He’s another guy who’s game has moved to the elite level and should never be discounted. He finished solo third last year.

Matt Kuchar

He doesn’t wow you— maybe it’s the disarming smile— but he’s steady to shoot 5-under each round, and other than a weekend swoon late in the year, is a golfer truly in his prime. I burned through him in every major convinced he would win one; in the end, he won the Accenture Match Play title and the Memorial Tournament, but has since put together a combo win with Harris English at the Franklin Templeton Shootout a few weeks ago. He’s an easy top-10 pick this week after a T9 last year and should score well in a tournament where the winner will likely go 20-under.

Webb Simpson

It was either Simpson or Zach Johnson for this spot, but Simpson has length off the tee and a bigger championship pedigree. His win came in October at the Shriners Open, proving he’s not just a grinder when the winning score hovers around par, but also a guy who can consistently go low. If he gets off to a quick start, look out.

RUIN

These players aren’t horrible by any stretch, but the odds of them competing for four days and finishing in the top-10 are slim. But will you be put to shame by rostering them? Not really, but chances are they won’t go low consistently and you’ll drop incremental points each day. And without a long run of tournaments played at Kapalua throughout the years, you can’t lean on course history. You have to rely on talent and actual merit. These guys don’t have enough of that to be included.

Scott Brown

If you’re already questioning who a person is, it’s probably not a wise decision to use them against proven golfers. Though he won the Puerto Rico Open, what you’re talking about is someone who won a small purse in a week where everyone of good caliber competed at the WGC-Cadillac Championship. That shouldn’t instill confidence.

John Merrick

Merrick isn’t a bad golfer by any stretch, but he is streaky. Winning the Northern Trust Open is notable because it’s his hometown event. He also had to win a playoff over Charlie Beijan. Yes, he finished ahead of names like Bill Haas, Charl Schwartzel, Simpson, Hunter Mahan and Scott at a solid course like Riviera Country Club. But do you peg him to take down those guys again? Nope.

Michael Thompson

Golf is a funny sport in that Thompson struggled at Riviera to the tune of a 78-80, but bounced back with three rounds in the 60’s two weeks later to win the Honda Classic. The field wasn’t super strong that week and the 27-year old still needs to prove that wasn’t an aberration. Right now, it stands out as a career highlight and also an outlier to his regular play.

Ken Duke

There are few more likable players on Tour, but being likable doesn’t win you tournaments. Neither does advancing age. Duke finally picked up a well-respected and hard-earned first Tour win when he took the Travelers Championship. But stars must align for him, starting with a short course. He will always be in the fairway and won’t shoot himself out of tournaments, but will inevitably be beaten by low scores. After getting a lucky bounce off a tree to snatch a birdie and stay on track to win in Connecticut, he won’t have that luxury in the wide open spaces of Hawaii. He should just enjoy the trip to paradise.

Kevin Streelman

Another first time winner on Tour this past year (one of 13 total), Steelman won the previously known Tampa Bay Championship in March. His precision was spot on that week, not making bogey over the final 37 holes. But he is out of his element in Hawaii, and there is little else on his resume to make you think otherwise.

As always, you can follow me on Twitter @bricmiller and shoot me any fantasy questions you may have or lineup advice you may need. Good luck this season!

This week’s picks

Yahoo

A: B. Snedeker (S), A. Scott

B: J. Spieth (S), W. Simpson (S), D. Johnson, C. Kirk

C: J. Walker (S), B. Weekley

PGATour.com

D. Johnson, W. Simpson, J. Spieth, H. English

Golf Channel

Group 1: A. Scott

Group 2: W. Simpson

Group 3: H. English

Group 4: P. Reed