It’s only been two days since the Presidents Cup wrapped up with a decisive U.S. victory over the International team and already the PGA Tour season has begun. As part of the changes to its scheduling, this week’s Frys.com Open at CordeValle Golf Club in San Martin, Calif., is the first official event on the new wrap-around 2013-14 calendar. As a result, the winner of the tournament will get 500 FedEx Cup points and a sweet little invite to the Masters.

Last year, Sweden’s Jonas Blixt picked up his first Tour victory in his 19th start at the Fry.com Open, earning a nice $900,000 paycheck and kickstarting a season where he would go on to win the Greenbrier Classic and make the TOUR Championship. And that was before the added incentives; suffice to say, there’s a lot to play for if you’re not among the world’s elite.

Many fantasy gamers will notice certain sites won’t start their fantasy season until the Hyundai Tournament of Champions in January. But most of us degenerate gamers will just find the few that are open and ride that high right through the winter break. So without further ado, here’s a look at the Frys.com Open and the golfer’s who could strike gold, those that will inevitably grace the top of the leader board and those combustibles you should run far away from. It’s Risk, Reward, Ruin.

RISK

Current form says a lot about how a golfer will perform, just as much as course familiarity. The sport is all about confidence, and if you enter a tourney with it, good things are likely to happen.While there is certainly risk with taking one of these five, now is also the time to take a risk or two, as you have plenty of time to dig yourself out of a hole and you may even get a big leg up.

Trevor Immelman

The former Masters champion has had a rough go of it the last few years with an array of injuries. But towards the latter part of this year, he finally got healthy. And what you saw was a golfer, still only 33, who’s found his swing again. He won the Web.com Tour’s Hotel Fitness Championship in September by a stroke over Patrick Cantlay, shooting in the mid 60s each day to hit 20-under. He’s a sneaky pick.

The International Team

Maybe you’re surprised not to see Marc Leishman on the reward list, and he for sure could wind up at the top, but the risk for him, Angel Cabrera and Hideki Matsuyama is one of fatigue. Coming off a long Tour season and then a draining Presidents Cup loss, having to fly to northern Cali and compete is a tough task to ask any golfer, but that’s not to say it can’t be done. Leishman, the 2012 Travelers champ, is the pick if you’re going with any of the three.

The Web.com Tour Graduates

Russell Henley won the 2013 Sony Open.

The opposite of the Internationals is the newly minted kids coming out of the lesser Tour. But, man, are these kids talented and hungry. Earning one win, such as Russell Henley did last season in the first start of his career at the Sony, could jumpstart a career.

Max Homas won an NCAA individual title in June for the University of California. Justin Thomas led Alabama to a team title. Both then-amateurs led the U.S. to a Walker Cup win in New York in September.

Then there’s John Peterson, whom you may remember holding his own in the 2012 U.S. Open at the Olympic Club, finishing in a tie for fourth after needing sectional qualifying to get in. Peterson played nine events on Tour in 2012 and just won the Web.com Tour Finals, earning fully exempt status for this year.

And finally, you have many an unknown, but don’t rule them out. Hudson Swafford’s college teammates at Georgia were Henley, Harris English (also a first-time winner on Tour last year) and Brian Harman (in the field). Not bad for the three-time All-American who has played strong down the stretch. Not having a layoff and coming in hot and hungry could be a recipe for success, especially when so much is on the line.

Jeff Overton

I wonder if this isn’t the year Overton finally breaks through and gets his first win. He has four second-place finishes on Tour and made the 2010 Ryder Cup team. That kind of talent means a win is coming sooner rather than later.

Jimmy Walker

He was Mr. Consistency to start last season, going 15 tournaments without a missed cut. He also finished tied for fourth at last year’s Frys.com Open, shooting a tournament-low 62 on Sunday. He finished T2 behind Blixt at the Greenbrier, but he has yet to win on Tour, meaning you play him to get you points, just not necessarily the max.

REWARD

I strongly believe in asking yourself, “Who should win this tournament?” And until a golfer is faced with the position of defending a 54-hole lead, or being paired with Tiger Woods on a Sunday, or having to make a crucial, potentially tournament-winning putt, it can be hard to pull the trigger on someone under the radar. Let’s face it; you need points, so go for the chalk. They’re front runners for a reason, entering hot and with a proven track record of winning.

Jonas Blixt

The defending champion is a must as he’s one of the Tour’s best putters. Winning at the Greenbrier only further cemented his status as one to watch in the years to come. All he needed was confidence (and I’m not talking about the kind that causes you to wear all orange when paired with Rickie Fowler.) Blixt has it.

Patrick Reed

Most of us love a heart-warming story. The golfer who survived six Monday qualifiers during the season, whose new wife caddies for him, and who finally breaks though with a win. But Reed’s win at the Wyndham Championship only solidified what many have known for a while— he’s here to stay. You don’t win back-to-back NCAA team titles at August State without moxie. Reed is on a roll and being in this field proves he wants his name at the top of the FedEx Cup standings for years to come.

Gary Woodland

Woodland is a lot like Immelman in that he had some minor injuries derail him. Always one of the longest hitters on Tour, he needed help in the other aspects of his game. He won the Transitions Championship in 2011, but it wasn’t until this August, after a swing overhaul, that he won again, snagging the Reno-Tahoe Open title while the big names were playing the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational. He parlayed that victory into a ride to the Tour Championship. Any multiple winner on a hot streak strongly needs to be considered.

Billy Horschel

Horschel started the year on fire and finally picked up a win in April at the Zurich Classic. He admitted, however, that the middle part of his year was not fun as he grinded to make cuts and enjoy the game. Finally towards the end of the year, he began regaining the form that made him a regular fantasy selection. Now with a month break, the Christian Bale look alike should perform well in a tournament where he’s finished T29-T7 the last two years.

Guys Named Tim

Tim Clark, Tim Petrovic, Tim Herron. All have performed well over the years in this tournament, whether it was at CordeValle or previously in Scottsdale, Ariz. Clark, the long-puttered South African hasn’t won a tournament in three years, when he took home The Players Championship, but he is a staple of consistency tee-to-green and finished T6 in his only trip to CordeValle. You can make a strong case for last year’s runner-up Petrovic here as he’s the proverbial horse-for-the-course. Herron has also fared well with a T13 in 2010, but my pick would be Clark— a guy regularly in the fairway, creating birdie chances.

RUIN

This section may as well be titled “Aaron Baddeley’s Guide to Missing Cuts.” And that’s the last thing you want to do in a fantasy game when any points earned can make the difference in a segment or season result. Two years ago, my season went swimmingly. I won multiple weeks and put up huge numbers. The overall and segment titles were easy pickin’. Last year, I won one week, but I was consistent every week and by the end was able to retain my overall title when others were hit-or-miss. Don’t handicap yourself with golfers that will regularly miss cuts.

Aaron Baddeley

Every MC is between the Aussie’s head right now. Normally a solid putter, he’s become too cerebral and his scores are rising. He started last year well, but then ran off a string of 10 straight MC’s and 12 in his last 14 tournaments. To be honest, I’m surprised he’s playing this tournament because no one needs an extended break and a six-pack of Foster’s more than Baddeley. But then again, maybe ending the FedEx Cup Playoffs early at The Barclays was enough time to fix what ails him. But for now, steer clear.

Rory Sabbatini

I still laugh when I think of Rory getting into a war of words with Tiger six years ago. The irony is that’s all Sabbatini is— he’s a dog with tons of bark and no bite (and big hats). Every once in a while the dog will find a bone, toss a 65 out there and make you think he could put together four solid rounds. But then he tucks tail and runs back in the doghouse from whence he came.

Former Major Champions

With apologies to Immelman, who I believe to be trending upward, other past major champions are to be strongly avoided. Stewart Cink, Y.E. Yang, Retief Goosen and Mike Weir show no signs of making it to the weekend, Vijay Singh is still trying to find the next deer antler velvet loophole and Lucas Glover’s game seems to be directly tied to his facial hair growth. He’s clean-shaven at the moment, which means he’ll make like a follicle and get cut.

For all your fantasy questions and lineup inquiries, please contact me on Twitter @bricmiller. Enjoy the season!