Opinion & Analysis
Prediction: Phil will win at Pinehurst in 2014
Some might be tempted to call it quits after six runner-up finishes in the U.S. Open.
Sam Snead finished runner-up in four, never once winning the championship. Jack Nicklaus matched Snead with four second-place results; however, he won the event as many times.
Like Snead, Nancy Lopez also came in second-best in her national championship on four occasions, never once winning. While it’s true that these exercises in hollowness pale in comparison to the 19-year streak for futility of soap opera actress Susan Lucci, they are certainly gut-wrenching rewards that do not match the effort an energy dedicated by these golfing superstars to the annual showcase events of the United States Golf Association.
As many bitterly watched on Sunday, the gods of golf found a way to deny Phil Mickelson an inaugural Open championship of his own. Sunday, June 16, Bloomsday to the literary world, Father’s Day to many and 43rd birthday to Mickelson, brought another excruciating runner-up finish in a tournament he was desperate to win, that seemed destined to be his. In his own incomplete words, his finish at Merion was “very heart breaking.”
“This could have been the big [something] a really big turnaround for me on how I look at the U.S. Open and the tournament that I’d like to win, after having so many good opportunities,” Mickelson said after the round.
When a golfer searches for words “could have been the big…” the result could not have been more torturous.
Does it surprise you, then, that I predict that Phil Mickelson will win the 2014 U.S. Open? I write it with extreme confidence, for a number of reasons. If it’s facts you want, I have them. If it’s spiritual connections, I have those as well. My intent is to convince you that Phil’s town is not on Long Island (where he had three runner-up finishes), in Westchester county (one) or even the eponymous eastern Pennsylvania city of Phil-adelphia (one.) Phil’s star will finally shine bright in a small town known as the home of American golf in south-central North Carolina.
In 1999, a soon-to-be-30 and soon-to-be-a-daddy Phil Mickelson, outdueled a young Tiger Woods, only to have Payne Stewart enact the role of Harry Houdini and drain a monster 15-foot par putt on the 72nd hole to avoid a playoff and win the Open outright. In a moment frozen in time (and made all the more poignant and symbolic by Stewart’s untimely death less than six months later), Stewart grabbed Mickelson’s face in his hands and nearly shouted “You’re going to be a father, you’re going to be a father.” That Stewart chose to focus on Phil’s impending role as parent, rather than consolation for a job nearly well done, set in motion a spiritual trajectory that saw Mickelson through the birth of two other children and the personal health battles of his wife, son and mother.
Given that connection to Pinehurst (and ignoring the interim Open there in 2005, when Mickelson finished T33), is there any greater place for Mickelson to close fate’s circle than Pinehurst in 2014? I think not.
Fine, you don’t believe in spiritual connections. Let me suggest, then, that the “new” Pinehurst No. 2 sets up better than any other U.S. Open venue for Phil’s particular golfing phraseology. Since its restoration a year ago by Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw, Pinehurst No. 2 has returned to its Donald Ross origin of fairway width and manageable, sand-and-pine-straw rough. It is often written of Mickelson that he’d rather be in trouble, with an opportunity to manufacture a shot, than in the middle of the fairway, faced with a straightforward approach. At Pinehurst, he’ll be able to manufacture recovery shots in most situations, which might allow him to use driver with greater confidence.
Once you’re on the greens at Pinehurst No. 2, their contours and movements are for the most part negotiable. It’s the missing of the greens that causes consternation, followed by discomposure and vexation, for many competitors (channeling John Daly’s six–chip, are we?) Well, it’s for those very bumps, flops, spinners and nudges that Phil Mickelson is known. He handles a missed green with aplomb, knowing that he has either hit the recovery shot before or that he relishes the prospect of adding a new weapon to his stockpile.
You won’t need to give credit where it’s due (to me) nor sing of my clairvoyance for ages to come. The site of Phil phinally, sorry, finally hoisting the unnamed U.S. Open champion’s trophy will be reward enough for me and, I suspect, all of golf. And for those of you with scant knowledge of Susan Lucci, after 19 successive yet unsuccessful nominations for Best Actress in a soap opera, she finally won on her 20th attempt…in 1999.
This past Monday, I played in the U.S. Amateur local qualifier at Rock Creek Country Club in Portland, Oregon. A full tee sheet from 7:30 a.m. to 1:55 p.m., the top 11 scores would make it to the U.S. Amateur final qualifying.
I teed off at 10:48 a.m.. With the 7:30 am tee time, you can get a feel for the leaders’ pace, and they were off and running on the challenging setup at Rock Creek.
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Getting to the highlight of the round on the par five 17th, a drive up the left side and 212 yards left to the front hole location. I took out a 5-iron with plans of middle of the green. The ball ended up 8 feet left of the hole, pin high. A slight downhill putt dropped in for an eagle 3 on the 17th. With the cut line looking to be anywhere from -2 to even par. This was the boost I had been waiting for all day.
With making par from the trees on 18, it was time to wait for a potential playoff with a posted score of one under par 71.
Three hours later, it was playoff time. 8 players for 6 spots. I made par on the playoff hole, which was good enough to advance to the U.S. Amateur final qualifying in July. USGA qualifiers sure deliver on all of the emotions in golf!
Club Junkie
Building my 2026 gamer WITB: Ranking the contenders and new putter projects – Club Junkie Podcast
The annual What’s In The Bag build is underway, and on this episode of Club Junkie, Brian breaks down the clubs currently leading the race for a spot in his 2026 gamer setup. From drivers and fairway woods to irons, wedges, and shafts, he ranks the equipment that’s performing best and explains what’s separating the front runners from the rest of the field.
Brian also heads into the workshop to discuss several putter projects currently on the bench. From head options and shaft choices to build ideas and testing plans, he shares what he’s working on and which putters could become serious contenders for the bag this season.
If you’re a gear junkie who loves equipment testing, club building, and the never-ending pursuit of the perfect setup, this episode is for you.
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Tom Allinder
Jul 10, 2013 at 7:47 am
Ronald, I agree with you. I think Pinehurst #2 is the best venue for Phil to get his U.S. Open. I was thinking in the months before the U.S. Open at Merion that Phil would have a hard time there; I was wrong. At Pinehurst #2 (I have played the course a few times), the premium is absolutely on play AROUND the greens.
Ronald Montesano
Jun 20, 2013 at 6:24 pm
No doubt, Ryan. More guys in the running next year. I think that Phil’s trump card is his magic around the greens.
Bart, he’ll not be dumping Bones. You are correct about #2 and #3, but there has to be a point at which he has a good putting week at an Open and makes a few less whacky choices.
Bart carter
Jun 20, 2013 at 4:27 pm
1, he needs to sack his caddy,2, he has to be the streakiest putter ever, this won’t cut it,3, he continues to make stupid choices, being the best at miracle shots to try and escape the poor drive/approach will not get him home all the time. I also predict he’ll never win a U.S open and certainly not “The Open”.
Ryan Caddell
Jun 20, 2013 at 8:22 am
There’s a lot more than pine straw and sand where the rough used to be…. wire grass, sticks, pine cones, weeds. Also, the lack of rough should bring more guys to the table. It will be firm and FAST through the fairways. Good shots will roll in to the natural areas, and unless you get lucky there will be obstacles to deal with. I am excited to see how the pros (men and women) handle the new (old) setup. Growing up in Pinehurst I have seen a lot of great golf tournaments… next year could be the best yet.
Ronald Montesano
Jun 19, 2013 at 6:39 pm
Love the feedback. Keep it coming, gang. I’m hopeful that the universal kharma machine decides it’s Phil’s time.
Socorr4
Jun 19, 2013 at 3:26 pm
I’ll take that bet!!
With one more year on his clock and fractured psyche after failing to deliver on his dream this year, I’ll go out on a limb: Mickelson will NEVER win the US Open and probably won’t’even contend in many other majors.
BigBoy
Jun 19, 2013 at 6:15 am
Phil da Phillper wont win a US Open……one of them “set up for birdie” courses, yes…..but not a classically designed course.
Ronald Montesano
Jun 19, 2013 at 6:05 am
Merion’s greens ate up a lot of golfers last weekend; Phil was hardly alone. I’ll check Rose’s putting stats, but I would doubt he missed as many as Phil or Tiger when they counted. The winner in hindsight is usually the player that converted critical putts form a variety of makeable distances.
Joe Golfer
Jun 19, 2013 at 2:16 am
That’s a good assessment of Phil’s game.
I think he’s really going to be gunning for the win next year.
Not that he wasn’t super serious about it this year.
He probably will play more practice rounds at the course next year, weather permitting.
I liked that SuperStroke grip he used on his putter. Those greens at up a lot of golfers at Merion. Phil may have missed some putts, but they certainly weren’t gimmes, and he burned the edges of the cup numerous times.
Even at his current age, he’s still one of the top guns on tour, so I think his chances will be as good as anyone’s next year.
And this article makes it sound like the course suits his game.
After all his second place finishes at the US Open, I think I’ll be rooting for him next year.
I was sort of hoping he’d tie Justin Rose on the 18th at Merion, though it would have been really tough to do.
I really wasn’t rooting for either guy though, as both seemed worthy of the championship. That 18 hole playoff would have been must-see tv.
kyle
Jun 18, 2013 at 11:43 pm
Ya if he is gonna win he will have to have a better putter. His putting this last week was not good for considering how many birdie putts he had. He really did not convert well. I saw him make a par save from maybe 8ft. Other than that he was ice cold from 15 ft and in.