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Opinion & Analysis

2013 U.S. Open: Picks and Preview

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The first tee balls will be in the air at the 113th edition of the U.S. Open when Cliff Kresge, Roger Tambellini and Ryan Yip tee off at 6:50 a.m. EST Thursday. A rain-soaked Merion Golf Club plays host to the game’s best, and traditional U.S. Open contenders may be bypassed by bomb-and-gougers and players who love to take the low line and strike their putts with pace, due to the soft and soggy conditions.

Of course, the grounds crew and legion of volunteers (many of them superintendents themselves) will invest endless hours and devote all available resources to getting the course ready to play in a collective Herculean effot.

However, with thunderstorms forecasted for Thursday and a 90 percent chance of rain, they appear to be fighting a losing battle with Mother Nature in general, and the remnants of Tropical Storm Andrea, in particular.

Here’s a look at who could win at muddy Merion.

Tiger Woods: 9-2 odds

In what is surely a surprise to no golf fan, Tiger Woods is the prohibitive favorite to win at Merion. He’ll be able to keep his driver in the bag this week and lean on his new friend (no, not Sergio Garcia) the Nike VR_S Covert 3 wood. He’s hitting nearly 68 percent of greens in regulation this year and is fifth in strokes gained-putting. With his atrocious putting performance at the Memorial Tournament firmly in the rearview mirror, Woods is more ready to return to major glory than he has been at any point during his five year drought.

Sergio Garcia: 33-1 odds

Bear with me on this one. Yes, there’s the saga that would make Colonel Sanders blush, and yes, Sergio Garcia melted down at The Players, has said he’ll never win a major, etc. However, with minimal winds and soft conditions, Garcia’s ball-striking prowess could leave him in position to pour in a lot of putts at Merion. Also, if you hadn’t been paying attention, Sergio, with his new grip and his, well, new grip, has moved from 144th in strokes gained-putting in 2011 to second this year.

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Matt Kuchar: 20-1 odds

The hottest golfer in the game right now has had two fantastic performances in a row. The newly bearded Matt Kuchar finished second at the Crowne Plaza Invitational and then won the Memorial Tournament in just the sort of “fairways and greens” manner that wins U.S. Opens. His confidence in his arm-lock putting style has paid dividends as well, and should again at Hugh Wilson’s Pennsylvania masterpiece.

Adam Scott: 22-1 odds

It’s obviously improbable that the Masters champion will win the U.S. Open. However, Adam Scott, who did well at the U.S. Open at the Olympic Club last year (placing 15th), has finished inside the top 20 in both of his starts since winning the Masters. Scotty is a good high-ball hitter who could go flag hunting at Merion. If his putter performs, there’s no reason this couldn’t be the brace for the Australian.

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Graeme McDowell: 20-1 odds

The most accurate driver on Tour this season and one of the best putters (13th in strokes gained-putting), Graeme McDowell has won twice in his last four starts. He’s also a U.S. Open stalwart, making the cut in all seven of his appearances. The Ulsterman won in 2010 and placed second last year. The only concern with McDowell on paper is his length, however at this year’s shorter U.S. Open venue, with its rain-soaked and receptive greens, G-Mac could easily hoist his second U.S. Open Trophy.

Justin Rose: 22-1 odds

It’s almost fashionable in golf circles to remember the lanky amateur at the 1998 Open Championship, and ask, “Where has the time gone?” Justin Rose, now 15 years removed from that seminal moment, is now 32. He’s a card-carrying member of the best golfers without a major club. Rose just finished tied for eighth at the Memorial, so he enters Merion in good form. The Englishman is 156th in strokes gained-putting, but if he starts to roll a few in this week, the tournament could be his.

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Brandt Snedeker: 28-1 odds

Beware the sick golfer, as they say. Brandt Snedeker has struggled since withdrawing from the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship with a rib injury earlier this year. At the Memorial Tournament, he fired a second-round 80 and missed the cut, and he missed the cut at last week’s FedEx St. Jude Classic, as well. However, if Snedeker, one of the most accurate drivers on Tour, keeps the ball in the fairway and doesn’t have to wage war on Merion’s rough, he can certainly make the putts to win.

Lee Westwood: 28-1 odds

Another injured golfer, Lee Westwood, who hurt a finger at the Players Championship, could overpower Merion. Once comically bad around the green, Westwood now ranks third and eighth in scrambling and sand save percentage, respectively. Westy also finished inside the top 10 at the past two U.S. Opens. In 2011, at a soft venue with accessible pins at Congressional, he finished second. Last year, at the difficult Olympic Club, he finished tied for tenth. Clearly then, he’s comfortable with both extremes of the U.S. Open venue spectrum.

Phil Mickelson

Phil Mickelson: 16-1 odds

It’s doubtful that anyone is happier about the receptive greens which await the players at Merion than Phil Mickelson. The perennially aggressive pinseeking left-hander won’t need a driver in his hand at the U.S. Open this year. Thus, he should find more fairways than the 53 percent he has averaged for the year. If he does, and he continues to putt well (eighth in strokes gained-putting), Lefty could carry the momentum of last week’s tie for second at the FedEx St. Jude to victory. On another note, after Mickelson’s Monday practice round was rained out he decided to return to San Diego to attend his daughter’s 8th-grade graduation. He’ll be back for his 7:11 a.m. tee time on Thursday, and we’ll quickly see if it has caused him to be more focused or out of sorts.

Steve Stricker: 40-1 odds 

It’s tough to get a read on the state of Steve Stricker’s game, as he hasn’t played in a while. Stricker, who is beginning the long walk into the sunset, is playing a limited schedule this year… and he’s playing it pretty well. One can assume he’ll come into the U.S. Open practiced, prepared, and relaxed. If he does this, and putts like he’s capable of putting, he could be a major champion come Sunday.

*odds according to Bovada.com

Ben Alberstadt is the Editor-in-Chief at GolfWRX, where he’s led editorial direction and gear coverage since 2018. He first joined the site as a freelance writer in 2012 after years spent working in pro shops and bag rooms at both public and private golf courses, experiences that laid the foundation for his deep knowledge of equipment and all facets of this maddening game. Based in Philadelphia, Ben’s byline has also appeared on PGATour.com, Bleacher Report...and across numerous PGA DFS and fantasy golf platforms. Off the course, Ben is a committed cat rescuer and, of course, a passionate Philadelphia sports fan. Follow him on Instagram @benalberstadt.

4 Comments

4 Comments

  1. Dayjur

    Jun 12, 2013 at 7:25 pm

    Where are the bottom line picks? You’re kidding me you are tipping all those ^ … Haven’t added it up to the button but there’s near on 60% of margin there… in American speak that is -162

    I’m taking Charl over Donald @ -110
    Woods O/R @ +600 EW 7 places
    Gmac O/R +3400 EW 6 places
    Lefty O/R +2600 EW 7 places

    23% margin

  2. Tom Davis

    Jun 12, 2013 at 1:27 pm

    Rory doesn’t even get a mention? #2 in the world? I know he’s in a bit of a slump, but on a rain-softened course with US Open setup he’s got a pretty good record (Congressional anyone?). I’m not putting my hard-earned dollars on him, but then I wouldn’t put them on Phil, Snedeker, or Sergio either.

  3. Troy Vayanos

    Jun 12, 2013 at 6:52 am

    I think the shorter golf course will suit G-Mac down to the ground. As long as you say he can find the fairways he has a great shot.

    I’d like to see Phil finally win a US Open. I’d also like to see Tiger finally break through for major number 15.

    Lot’s of questions will be answered after this week.

  4. B MAC

    Jun 12, 2013 at 12:21 am

    Zach Johnson all the way !!

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