I was on a Google Meet Wednesday evening with some long-ago friends. We started this tradition during the pandemic, and we’ve kept it up, to keep close across distances. They asked, “Who is your pick to win the Open at Oakmont?” I answered, “I don’t know that it plays directly into anyone’s skill set, so I think that it will be someone who jumps up, out of nowhere.” After Thursday’s play, I look pretty savvy.

In 2016, we all wanted Dustin Johnson to win at Oakmont, after he was hosed by Chambers Bay in the closing moments. He came through, despite some attempt by an overzealous rules team to snatch victory away. It’s now 2025, Rory has his career grand slam, while Scottie Scheffler reached the halfway mark for his CGS, at the PGA Championship in Charlotte in May. There’s no one that the U.S. Open owes, so everyone wonders, how cool will Portrush be, if Scottie can somehow win at Oakmont, setting the stage for three majors in one year, and a CGS at age 29?

Back to life, back to reality. Oakmont is an extreme test, even for the United States Open Championship. Golf shots like the ones we see each week on the PGA Tour do not exist. Conditions are firm, and players need to explore alternative methods for keeping the ball on the fairways, let alone on the greens, in regulation. Some players succeed, while others do not. We have a quintet of examples of things that we learned on day one of the 2025 USGA Open Championship, and we are delighted to share them with you.

1. Anything can, does, and will happen at Oakmont, part one

Golf shots do not spin back on Oakmont’s putting surfaces. To combat this unusual feature, we will see many shots gauged to green front, and an anticipation that the ball will roll out to the hole. Max Moldovan found himself atop the hill that precedes the descent to green the first at Pittsburgh’s finest layout. He smartly played to the front of the green, ensuring that his ball would find the putting surface. What happened next was gravy.

2. Anything can, does, and will happen at Oakmont, part two

Patrick Reed was always admired for his ability to make magic happen under the most trying circumstances. His victory at the 2018 Masters is the high point of a career still in development. Reed found himself in the middle of the fairway on the 4th hole, a 621-yard par five hole. Like Moldovan, Reed intelligently played for the front of the green with his three metal, struck the ball perfectly, and made history with a deuce of his own. How rare is the albatross? AI tells us that the actual bird has a wide wingspan, a deep intellect for wind currents, and a spacious glide capacity. That’s the sort of creature that describes a majestic two on a par-five hole.

3. Get out early and get in safely, the Chef Spaun recipe

JJ Spaun has little regard for his career record in the major championships. He has two top-fifty finishes at the Masters, three top-sixty results at the PGA Championship, zero appearances in the Open Championship, and one missed cut in the US Open. How do we explain his performance on Thursday at Oakmont? Spaun teed off at 7:07, on the inward nine, just the third group of the morning to greet holes ten through eighteen. Spaun proceeded to post four birdies. Many would have awakened at the turn, wondered how is this possible? and back-pedaled toward even par. Well, Spaun did move toward even par. He posted nine scores of par on his second nine, and signed a bogey-free scorecard of 66. On Friday, Spaun will play from the first tee at 12:52, and do his level best to replicate the fortune he found on day one. It will be much more difficult. He will no longer be anonymous, and he will confront greens beset by many feet. U.S. Open champions find a way to manage, and the opportunity will be Spaun’s.

4. One Open course is not like the others

Three former U.S. Open champions sit inside the top twelve after round one. Brooks Koepka (Erin Hills and Shinnecock Hills) is tied for third at minus-two. Jon Rahm (Torrey Pines) is tied for sixth at one-under par. Jordan Spieth (Chambers Bay) is tied for eleventh at even par 70. Three shots separate Spieth from the next, former Open champions. Unlike the Masters, where the phrase horses for courses applies, US Open venues vary greatly in their presentation. The most interesting aspect of this trio’s open success is the venues where they won. With the exception of Koepka at Shinnecock, championships were won at non-traditional venues. This makes their success at Oakmont all the more unlikely.

Of the three contending former champions, Koepka appears to be the most formidable. He closed with birdies at 17 and 18, giving him a boost as he moves into a desirable, early tee time on Friday. Rahm was nearly as fierce. His one birdie and one eagle were offset somewhat by a pair of bogeys. Spieth was a swerving rollercoaster, posting five each of birdies and bogeys.

5. What to expect from Friday? The unexpected, of course

We’ve seen eagles and albatrosses, so why not add a 360-yard drive to the crosswalk to the kettle? A golf course with firm fairways certainly opens itself up to monumental pokes from the tee deck. Oakmont encourages this sort of large living, as it does not present sharp, restrictive doglegs on any of its driving holes. If one of the leaders or chasers finds his driving game for the next 54 holes, he’ll have shorter clubs into these diabolical putting surfaces. If he can hold his psychological game together, he might lift the nameless, eponymous championship trophy.