After a convincing victory by the United States at the Presidents Cup, the PGA Tour heads to Mississippi for the Sanderson Farms Championship at the Country Club of Jackson.

The Country Club of Jackson is a 7,461-yard par 72 with fast Bermudagrass greens. The field is largely as expected for a fall event, but there are some talented players teeing it up in Jackson this week. Some notable golfers in the 156-man field this week include Emiliano Grillo, Matt Kuchar, Stephan Jaeger, Michael Thorbjornsen, Jhonnatan Vegas, Rickie Fowler and Mackenzie Hughes.

Past Winners at Country Club of Jackson

• 2023: Luke List (-18)
• 2022: Mackenzie Hughes (-17)
• 2021: Sam Burns (-22)
• 2020: Sergio Garcia (-19)
• 2019: Sebastian Munoz (-18)
• 2018: Cameron Champ (-21) 
• 2017: Ryan Armour (-19)
• 2016: Cody Gribble (-20)

In this article, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Let’s take a look at several key metrics for the Country Club of Jackson to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

SG: Approach will be important this week as the club was renovated in 2008 and tried to imitate some classic Donald Ross course features. This means the greens will be relatively small, and finding the right level on approach shots will be crucial.  The course will generate plenty of low scores, so it’s important that players give themselves plenty of birdie looks.

Total strokes gained: Approach over past 24 rounds:

1. Doug Ghim (+1.06) 
2. J.J. Spaun (+0.93) 
3. Chez Reavie (+0.87)
4. David Lipsky (+0.81)
5. Keith Mitchell (+0.80) 

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Placing an emphasis on who the best drivers of the golf ball are is a smart strategy. This statistic has driving accuracy built into it, and though the fairways are relatively easy to hit at the Country Club of Jackson, long and straight is always a big advantage. I am looking for golfers who are going to have the shortest approach shots and are coming in from the fairway. 

Total strokes gained: Off the Tee over past 24 rounds:

1. Cameron Champ (+0.92) 
2. Patrick Fishburn (+0.91)
3. Kevin Dougherty (+0.73)
4. Keith Mitchell (+0.63) 
5. Jhonnatan Vegas (+0.63) 

Driving Distance

Five of the past six winners at the Country Club of Jackson all hit it pretty far off of the tee. With the rough not being a major problem this week, the bomb-and-gauge approach should be very successful.

Driving Distance gained over past 24 rounds:

1. Kevin Dougherty (307.6) 
2. Keith Mitchell (304.6)
3. Cameron Champ (304.4)
4. Trey Mullinax (304.1)
5. Alejandro Tosti (302.8)

Par 5 Scoring Average

Three of the four par 5s on the course should be reachable by the longer hitters, with the longest par 5 hole measuring 587 yards. Finding eagle and birdie opportunities on the Par 5s this week may be the difference in determining a winner.

Par 5 Scoring Average over past 24 rounds:

1. Paul Barjon (4.29)
2. Ben Taylor (4.33) 
3. S.H. Kim (4.33)
4. Hayden Springer (4.38)
5. Mac Meissner (4.38) 

SG: Putting (Fast Bermudagrass Greens)

Historically, SG: Putting at the Sanderson Farms Championship has weighed as the most indicative score of the tournament winner. While this isn’t necessarily rare in PGA Tour tournaments, it was 10% more important at Country Club of Jackson than the average course on TOUR. 

Total Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda+Fast) past 24 rounds:

1. Harris English (+141)
2. Ben Griffin (+1.28) 
3. Taylor Montgomery (+0.82)
4. Beau Hossler (+0.8)
5. S.H. Kim (+0.77) 

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed. These rankings are comprised of SG: APP (25%) SG: OTT: (25%), Driving Distance (14%), SG: Par 5 (18%), SG: Putting (Fast Bermuda) (18%). 

1. J.J. Spaun
2. Nick Hardy
3. Keith Mitchell
4. Jhonnatan Vegas
5. Seamus Power
6. Matt NeSmith
7. Doug Ghim
8. Patrick Rodgers
9. Joel Dahmen
10. Charley Hoffman

2024 Sanderson Farms Championship Picks

Emiliano Grillo +6000 (BetMGM)

Emiliano Grillo had a subpar 2024 but his signature ball striking was seemingly on the rise towards the end of the season.

Grillo hit the ball well in his final start of the 2023-2024 FedEx Cup season, gaining 5.4 strokes on the field ball striking which was comprised of 3.2 on approach and 2.2 off the tee. The T33 finish was solid in a strong field, but still not up to his standards.

Due to his struggles, I believe we are getting a very palatable number on the Argentine, who is the class of the field in regard to pure talent. When at his best, I believe Emiliano is arguably a top three player in the field.

Grillo finished T5 in the 2022 Sanderson Farms Championship and the course suits him well. Over his past 36 rounds at the Country Club of Jackson, he ranks 24th in Strokes Gained: Total.

His form may not be there quite yet, but this is an intriguing “buy low” opportunity on Grillo.

Henrik Norlander +6600 (BetMGM)

Henrik Norlander has been playing pretty consistently of late, teeing it up three times in September. The Swede T8 at the Omega European Masters and hit the ball well over the three-week stretch.

Norlander ended his summer strong, finishing in the top 25 in three consecutive July starts prior to the Wyndham Championship. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 17th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Norlander has a strong history at the Country Club of Jackson. In his past four trips to the course, he’s only finished outside of the top four once, and that was a 24th place finish. He finished T4 in both 2021 and 2022 and T2 in 2023. In his past 36 rounds at the course, the 37-year-old ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Total.

Norlander is in solid form and clearly loves this golf course.

Charley Hoffman +6600 (BetMGM)

In early 2024, Charley Hoffman nearly shocked the golf world when he came agonizingly close to winning the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Despite coming up short in a playoff to Nick Taylor, the 47-year-old proved that he can still contend on the PGA Tour when he is in good form.

After the runner-up at TPC Scottsdale, Hoffman’s results understandably took a dip. However, over the last few months, he’s begun to string some solid finishes together. Charley finished T8 at the Barracuda Championship in July and more recently, finished T12 at the Wyndham Championship and T26 at the Procore Championship.

Despite being in the twilight of his career, Hoffman is no slouch when it comes it hitting driver. In the field, he ranks 26th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 37th in Driving Distance. He also has been scoring very efficiently on par 5’s where he ranks 22nd in the field.

Hoffman has a solid track record at the Country Club of Jackson. He finished T23 in 2020 and T6 in 2021. Last year, he missed the cut but hit the ball well and struggled with the putter, which is uncommon for him at Jackson. In 2020 we saw Stewart Cink take advantage of a weaker fall season field at 47 years old, winning the Fortinet Championship. I believe Hoffman is equally capable of getting himself into contention this week in Mississippi.

Nick Hardy +8000 (FanDuel)

Nick Hardy has been striking the ball brilliantly for the latter half of 2024. the 28-year-old has gained strokes on approach in eleven consecutive events, including in his first start of the FedEx Cup Fall series at the Procore Championship.

The results haven’t quite matched up with the statistics for Hardy, but there’s reason to believe the Country Club of Jackson is the spot where he can turn his approach statistics into a chance at contention.

At the Country Club of Jackson, Hardy ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Total over his 12 rounds played at the course. His best result came in 2023 when he finished in a tie for 5th and gained 7.0 strokes on approach, which ranked among the best in the field.

With a slim talent gap separating the top of the odds board and the bottom, Hardy feels like a real value play at this number.

Carl Yuan +25000 (BetMGM)

Carl Yuan flashed at last year’s Sanderson Farms Championship finished in a tie for 6th place and gaining strokes in every significant statistical category.

Yuan is known for his unorthodox swing and entertaining antics on the golf course. At his best, Yuan is a prolific birdie maker who absolutely mashes the ball and can take advantage of par 5’s on easier tracks. He ranks 21st in the field in average driving distance.

Carl Yuan is the type of player who can contend out of nowhere due to his ability to go low. The volatility can hurt him at times, but it also gives him a shot at contention this far down the odds board.

For the sake of the fans and for our bet, it would be entertaining if Yuan could get in the mix at triple digits this week in Mississippi.