The golf world was treated to a spectacular major championship as Brian Harman won the 151st Open Championship at Royal Liverpool. This week, the PGA TOUR heads to TPC Twin Cities to play the 3M Open for the fifth consecutive year.

An Arnold Palmer design, TPC Twin Cities is a 7,431-yard par 71. The course is extremely flat throughout and features Bentgrass greens. The fairways are easier to hit than TOUR average, but 13 of the 18 holes do have water hazards in play.

The 3M Open will play host to 156 golfers this week with the top 65 players and ties making the weekend. Some notable golfers making the trip to Minnesota include Tony Finau, Sungjae Im, Cameron Young, Ludvig Aberg, Sepp Straka, Hideki Matsuyama and Justin Thomas. 

Past Winners at 3M Open

• 2022: Tony Finau (-17)
• 2021: Cameron Champ (-15)
• 2020: Michael Thompson (-19)
• 2019: Matthew Wolff (-21)

5 Key Stats For TPC Twin Cities

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC Twin Cities to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Off The Tee

In 2019, we saw two of the longest drivers in the game — Matthew Wolff and Bryson DeChambeau — go at it down the stretch at TPC Twin Cities, showing that distance is a significant factor. Two years ago, one of the longest hitters in the game, Cameron Champ, hoisted the trophy. Last year, big-hitting Tony Finau got it done. With plenty of hazards in play, a total off the tee game will be paramount.

SG: OTT Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Brent Grant (+23.5)
2. Garrick Higgo (+22.9) 
3. Ludvig Aberg (+19.9) 
4. Kevin Yu (+19.6)
5. Trevor Cone (+17.9) 

2. Strokes Gained: Approach

Every year, ball strikers were all over the leaderboard at TPC Twin Cities. The 3M open will require sharp iron play to get into contention. 

Strokes Gained: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Hideki Matsuyama (+27.4)
2. Mark Hubbard (+24.1)
3. Lucas Glover (+23.4)
4. Gary Woodland (+22.6)
5. Aaron Rai (+21.8) 

3. Birdie or Better: Gained

The green in regulation percentage at TPC Twin Cities is a good deal higher than TOUR average. Making pars isn’t going to be enough to get it done at the 3M Open. I expect ball strikers and birdie makers to hold a large share of the win equity this week.

Birdie or Better: Gained Past 24 rounds:

1. Eric Cole (+23.9) 
2. Sepp Straka (+18.2)
3. Scott Piercy (+17.4) 
4. Gary Woodland (+15.3) 
5. Marty Dou (+15.1)

4. Par 4: 450-500

The most common par-4 distance on the course will be from 450-500. Golfers who play these holes well should separate themselves on the leaderboard in Minnesota.

Par 4: 450-500 Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Ryan Fox (+18.0)
2. Beau Hossler (+15.3) 
3. Vincent Normann (+14.7)
4. Sungjae Im (+14.3) 
5. J.T. Poston (+13.5) 

5. Opportunities Gained

Opportunities gained is similar to birdie or better but doesn’t include whether or not the golfer converted the putt for birdie. Players who aren’t typically the best putters have done well at TPC Twin Cities, so I’m looking for golfers who are giving themselves the most chances to convert birdies.

Opportunities Gained Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Hideki Matsuyama (+30.9)
2. Justin Thomas (+26.9)
3. Lucas Glover (+26.5) 
4. Ludvig Aberg (+24.2)
5. Eric Cole (+21.1)

The 3M Open Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: OTT (26%), SG: Approach (24%), Birdie or Better (20%), Opportunities Gained (15%), and Par 4: 450-500 (15%)

Last year, Tony Finau ranked 1st in the model and won the tournament. 

1. Gary Woodland (+4000)
2. Lucas Glover (+5500)
3. Ludvig Aberg (+3500)
4. Luke List (+11000)
5. Hideki Matsuyama (+1800)
6. Austin Eckroat (+8000)
7. Vincent Norrman (+4500)
8. Aaron Rai (+5000)
9. Ryan Palmer (+11000)
10. Doug Ghim (+8000)

2023 3M Open Picks

Ludvig Aberg +3500, (DraftKings)

Last week, we saw one of the PGA Tour’s most talented young players, Akshay Bhatia, breakthrough for his first PGA Tour win at the Barracuda Championship. Now, I believe it’s Ludvig Aberg’s turn to announce his presence on Tour with authority.

The big hitting Swede is an immaculate course fit for TPC Twin Cities. With bombers such as Matthew Wolff, Cameron Champ and Tony Finau winning here in the past, Aberg fits the mold of a player who should thrive on this golf course. Over his past four starts in the U.S., Ludvig has gained 6.2, 4.2, 5.2 and 4.0 strokes off the tee in those starts. It’s early in his career, but the 23-year-old has already shown he’s one of the best drivers of the golf balls in the world.

In addition to the driving stats, in the field Aberg ranks 6th in Birdie or Better Gained, 4th in Opportunities Gained, and 8th on Par 4’s 450-500 yards.

I was thrilled with the opening odds for Aberg this week and believe he holds tremendous value in the betting market given his sky-high potential.

Cameron Davis +4500 (DraftKings)

Over the last four years, we’ve seen a great deal of leaderboard crossover between the Rocket Mortgage Classic and the 3M Open. When doing my research this week, one of the first places I looked was at previous Rocket Mortgage Classic leaderboard’s. Cameron Davis won the Rocket Mortgage Classic in 2021, and also has two top-16 finishes in his past three starts at TPC Twin Cities.

The Australian is a “boom or bust” type of player who often gets into trouble off the tee, but also has winning upside when he’s clicking on all cylinders. Davis hits it a mile off the tee, which has proven to be a factor here. He also ranks 23rd in the field in Birdie or Better and can get absolutely scorching when he sees a few putts go down.

Davis has started to show signs of getting into a groove of late, as he has finishes of 33rd at the Travelers and 17th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic before missing the cut at the Scottish Open. In Detroit, he gained 5.3 strokes on approach, which was the best performance in the category since 2021 and a sign that his game is coming around.

If he can keep his ball dry this week, Cam Davis has a good chance to be part of the weekend story in Minnesota.

Adam Hadwin +5000 (PointsBet)

A few weeks ago, Adam Hadwin was sacrificed by the Golf Gods in the form of a playoff loss to fan-favorite Rickie Fowler. It was a crushing defeat for Hadwin, which is why I don’t hold missing the cut at the John Deere Classic the following week against him. Now, the Canadian returns to TPC Twin Cities where he’s had two finishes in the top-6 in three trips.

Hadwin is another example of a player who’s been excellent at both the 3M Open and the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He’s an excellent putter on Bentgrass greens who gets it done a bit differently than some of the players who’ve won here in the past but is still fully capable of winning this tournament. In 2020, Michael Thompson won this event by gaining over seven strokes on the field in both approach and putting, and that is the recipe for Hadwin this week. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 9th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 22nd in Opportunities Gained.

Hadwin came agonizingly close to getting in second PGA Tour win in Detroit and I believe he will be out for redemption this week in Minnesota.

Lucas Glover +5500 (DraftKings)

It’s time to board the Lucas Glover train once again, people! I’ve been all over Lucas Glover for the past month, and although he hasn’t sealed the deal, he’s been playing fantastic golf. In his past three starts, the former U.S. Open champion has finishes of 4th, 6th and 5th. As impressive as his finishes have been, his iron play has been even better. In the aforementioned starts, the 43-year-old has gained 6.1, 4.0 and 10.0 strokes on approach.

When Lucas Glover gets hot, he tends to stay hot for a prolonged period before cooling off for months at a time. I believe he’s currently at the end of his window in this particular hot-stretch, and this will likely be his last chance in 2023 to return to the winner’s circle for the first time since the 2021 John Deere Classic.

Taylor Pendrith +6000 (DraftKings)

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Taylor Pendrith is yet another player who’s shown strong from at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. In his two starts at Detroit Golf Club, he’s finished 2nd and 14th. Pendrith is yet to play at TPC Twin Cities, but that shouldn’t be a problem and Matthew Wolff, Michael Thompson and Cameron Champ had all either never played the course or had shown nothing in terms of course form prior to spiking a victory at the event.

The Canadian is one of the longest players on Tour off the tee, and that will prove to be of use at this golf course. He’s also shown some form over the past month, and finished 14th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and 6th at the Barbasol prior to missing the cut at the Barracuda. In the two starts prior to the missed cut, Pendrith gained 9.3 and 6.9 strokes ball striking. The tee to green form returning for the 32-year-old is a great sign.

An in-form Taylor Pendrith has the ideal skill set to pick apart TPC Twin Cities and holds tremendous value on the betting board this week.

Troy Merritt +25000 (PointsBet)

In my opinion, Troy Merritt is mispriced on the betting board for the 3M Open. It hasn’t been his best season, but the 37-year-old has really turned it around over the past month or so.

Merritt fits the bill as a player who’s had success at both Detroit Golf Club and TPC Twin Cities. He’s had finishes of 8th, 2nd, 14th and his 17th in his past four starts at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and has a 7th place finish at the 3M Open in 2019. His form is trending over his past five starts and has gained strokes on approach and from tee to green in four of his past five starts.

Merritt can get extremely hot with the putter and his recent iron performances tell me that he can contend over the weekend in Minnesota.