As players and fans gear up for The Masters, the Tour stays in Texas following the Dell Technologies Match Play for the Valero Texas Open.

TPC San Antonio is a 7,494 yards par 72 and features Bermudagrass greens.  The main defense of the course is weather. If the wind picks up it can play pretty tough, otherwise expect the winner to be in the -20 range.

There are 140 golfers in the field this week. The field is what you would expect this week, with many golfers sitting out prior to The Masters. A few stars have made the trip to make sure their game is in top-top shape including Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, and Bryson DeChambeau.

Past Winners at TPC San Antonio

• 2021: Jordan Spieth (-18)
• 2019: Corey Conners (-20)
• 2018: Andrew Landry (-17)
• 2017: Kevin Chappel (-12)
• 2016: Charley Hoffman (-12)
• 2015: Jimmy Walker (-11)

2022 Valero Texas Open Outright Bets

Si Woo Kim (+3500) (Bet365):

Although this isn’t a Pete Dye track, which is Si Woo’s specialty, he has had success at TPC San Antonio in the past. Kim finished 23rd last year and 4th in 2019. As a golfer who resides in the Dallas area, there’s reason to believe he could be very comfortable playing this track.

In his past four stroke play events, the 26-year-old hasn’t finished worse than 26th and boasts two 11th place finishes in that timeframe. We also saw Kim play extremely well last week at the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play, where he ranked 5th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total. The results were encouraging as well. Si Woo defeated Christian Bezuidenhout 6&4 and disposed of Daniel Berger 2 up before losing on the 18th hole to Tyrrell Hatton. That may be a blessing in disguise as he didn’t have to play 18-36 more holes over the weekend and comes into the Valero Texas Open both rested and playing well.

On a card with more long shots it makes sense to have a golfer with win equity on the card. And with three PGA Tour victories before his 27th birthday, Si Woo certainly provides that.

Tony Finau (+4500):

The first bet of the week is strictly a value play. The talent level of Finau in relation to where he is on the oddsboard in such a weak field simply doesn’t add up. 

Since his win at last year’s Northern Trust, Finau is yet to crack the top ten in any event. While that is what has created his downward slide in price, there are signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form. In late February, Finau gained 6.6 strokes on approach at the Genesis which is an encouraging sign. In his next start at THE PLAYERS he wasn’t very good, but because of the unbalanced weather draw it wouldn’t be wise to read too much into that performance. Last week at the WGC Dell Match Play, Finau ranked 13th in Strokes Gained: Total despite not making it out of the group stage. In his final matchup, he disposed of Xander Schauffele quite easily. In the match, he made eight birdies which is another sign that he could be rounding into form. 

Finau has a third place finish here back in 2017, so he’s shown that the course suits him if he is playing well. This is a week where I don’t expect to bet anyone near the top of the board, so Finau at a stellar price is a good add to the card. 

Kevin Streelman (+6600):

The debate between course history and recent form will always be an interesting one. Luckily for Streelman’s chances at the Valero Texas Open, he has both.

Streelman comes into the week coming off of three top 22 finishes in his past four starts. Most recently, the two-time Tour winner finished 7th at the Valspar Championship. At Copperhead, he gained 7.4 strokes from tee to green and was solid in all statistical categories. 

In terms of his play at TPC San Antonio, Streelman has also excelled. He has top ten finishes (8th and 6th) in his past two trips to the course. While not a great putter, his results on Bermuda grass have been much better than other surfaces. He rolled it well in the Florida swing, gaining an average of 2.2 strokes putting on the field per event. If he can catch a hot putter this week in Texas he’s certainly the type to go well at this event. 

Patton Kizzire (+7500):

Last season, we saw Patton Kizzire get extremely hot in any event taking place in Texas. He finished 3rd at the Charles Schwab Challenge, 3rd at the Byron Nelson, and 9th at the Valero Texas Open. At this event last year, the 36-year-old gained 8.1 strokes on approach, which was the most he’s ever gained in his career. 

His Texas history alone is plenty of reason to bet him at this price, but he also comes into the week playing some pretty solid golf. In his past three events during the Tour’s Florida swing, he finished 32nd at API, 22nd at THE PLAYERS, and 33rd at Valspar consecutively. The field this week at TPC San Antonio will be considerably weaker than those fields which will give Kizzire a shot to notch his first PGA Tour win since the 2018 Sony Open. 

Brendan Steele (+10000):

My favorite bet on the board this week is Brendan Steele. In his past two starts at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and THE PLAYERS Championship, Steele has gained 10.1 and 9.5 strokes from tee to green respectively. He ranks 2nd in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee in his past 24 rounds, which has been statistically extremely important at this event in the past. 

Steele’s combination of both distance and accuracy with the driver make him an ideal course fit at TPC San Antonio. In his past five starts, he’s gained an average of 9.7 strokes on the field in driving distance and 2.9 strokes on the field in driving accuracy. 

The main concern with Steele is always the putter. With that being said, when evaluating golfers who putt poorly overall, it is important to target the ones who are capable of having “spike” putting weeks. The 38-year-old is a perfect example of this. Despite losing strokes putting to the field in 25 of his past 40 events, he has 9 tournaments where he gained more than 4.0 strokes with the putter. To win a golf tournament, he doesn’t need to be a great putter; he needs to have one great putting week. The numbers prove that he is more than capable of doing that. 

Steele has three PGA Tour victories on his resume. Of the three, two of those wins have come at the same course (Safeway Open 2016 and 2017). This shows me that Steele is a golfer who continuously plays well on the same tracks, and is a true “horses for courses” type of golfer. As for Steele’s third PGA Tour victory? You guessed it, the Valero Texas Open back in 2011. If he can win the Safeway twice, there’s no reason he can’t run it back this week at TPC San Antonio when he is in excellent form.