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Arnold Palmer Invitational Outright Bets: Viktor can claim the spoils at Bay Hill

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The PGA Tour continues its Florida Swing at Bay Hill Club and Lodge to play this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational.  This event has been a mainstay on Tour, appearing on the schedule every year since 1979.

Bay Hill Club & Lodge is a par 72 measuring 7,454 yards and features Bermuda-grass greens. Interestingly, the past five editions of the Arnold Palmer Invitational have yielded an international champion. Bay Hill can play extremely difficult if the wind picks up, but the course certainly has teeth whether there is wind or not.

There are 120 golfers in the field this week at Bay Hill. This event usually attracts a very strong field but being that The PLAYERS Championship (March 10-13) is next week, some top players have chosen to sit this week out.

Even so, the field this week will feature some of the world’s best including: Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, Hideki Matsuyama Adam Scott, Patrick Reed, Justin Rose, Sungjae Im, Matt Fitzpatrick, Scottie Scheffler, Paul Casey and Tommy Fleetwood.

2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational Outright Bets

Viktor Hovland (+1800) (DraftKings):

Viktor Hovland comes into the week with scorching hot irons, which is the most important aspect of taming Bay Hill. In his most recent start at Riviera, the 24-year-old gained 6.1 strokes on approach. The dialed-in performance trailed only Tony Finau and winner Joaquin Niemann in the category, and it led Hovland to a 4th place finish. 

Last season, Hovland was also very good at Riviera. He gained 4.1 strokes on approach (5th place finish) and rode his hot form into the following week. His next start came at WGC Concession where finished in second place and gained 8.7 strokes on approach; which was a career best. Hovland now heads to Florida once again after a strong showing at Riviera and I expect another ceiling performance from him. 

The OWGR number 4 ranked golfer in the world has become one of the best players in the world, and recently won the Dubai Desert Classic on the DP World Tour (January 2022). Despite the worldwide success, Hovland still is in search of a signature win on the PGA Tour. Bay Hill would be a logical spot for that to happen. 

Matt Fitzpatrick (+3000) (Bet365):

It’s no secret that Matt Fitzpatrick absolutely loves Bay Hill. Fitz has finished in the top ten in his past three starts at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, with his best finish (2nd) coming in 2019.

While he clearly has the course history on his side, the Englishman also rates out perfectly for Bay Hill. In the field, Fitzpatrick ranks 1st in par 5 scoring, 7th in Strokes Gained: Putting on lightning fast bermudagrass greens, and 12th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. With a game that was built for this course, it’s no surprise that he has exceled around here throughout his career.

The 27-year-old gained 4.2 strokes on approach in his most recent start at the WM Phoenix Open and 7.2 strokes from tee to green. His game is rounding into form at the proper time to finally get his first PGA Tour victory.

Paul Casey (+4000) (DraftKings):

Among Paul Casey’s three PGA Tour victories, two of them have come in the state of Florida (Valspar Championship 2018, 2019). Like Copperhead, Bay Hill is a course that is a great fit for Casey, considering the difficult conditions and the potentially higher-than-normal winning score. 

Looking at the history of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, one of the first things that are worthy of mentioning is the amount of elite European players who have had success at Bay Hill. Prior to Bryson Dechambeau’s dominant victory last season, the past three winners were Rory McIlroy, Francesco Molinari, and Tyrrell Hatton. Casey is a European of a similar mold who has tons of Ryder Cup experience (like the other three) and excels in difficult conditions. 

In addition to the ideal course fit, the 44-year-old is playing some excellent golf. At the Genesis Invitational, Casey gained 5.6 strokes on approach and finished in 15th place. With four par 3’s on the course of 200+ yards, Casey should have an advantage as he gains an average of 2.4 strokes on the field per event on par 3’s of that length. 

With two top ten finishes in his past three tries at Bay Hill, Casey has proven he has what it takes to contend at the course. 

Danny Willett (+20000) (DraftKings):

Willett is a golfer that offers pure win equity. You won’t find many golfers in the field this week in their mid 30’s with nine professional wins in the triple digits on the odds board, but that’s where we find Willett this week.

Considering he has won as recently as October (Alfred Dunhill Links Championship) in a relatively strong field, it is safe to say that his game is in fine shape. He emphasized that last week at the Honda Classic, despite not finishing very high on the leader board. He was solid across the board statistically and gained 5.6 strokes from tee to green on the week. His troubles came with the putter, where he lost an abysmal 4.4 strokes. Willett has shown in the past he is capable of handling firm and fast greens in the past, as he has won The Masters at Augusta National. Although the surface is different, the speed of the greens at Bay Hill is one of the few that can rival Augusta.

Willett has some solid course history, with finishes of 18th and 31 in his past to trips to Bay Hill. If it plays difficult this week, the 34-year-old Englishman has the grinder’s mentality to contend at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. Henry R Fitzgerald

    Mar 2, 2022 at 4:06 pm

    Hovland is the real deal.

  2. Pingback: 2022 Puerto Rico Open Outright Bets – GolfWRX

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Most birdies without breaking par – GolfWRXers discuss

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In our forums, one user is wondering how many birdies other players have had in a round while still failing to break par. @Lalan45, unfortunately, asked the question after a unique experience of their own.

They wrote:

“Today I managed 8 birdies but still shot even par, could have been a round to remember! What’s the most birdies you’ve made in a round and still didn’t break par?”

Our members in the forum shared their own experiences with successful rounds that still resulted in a score over par. Here are a few posts from the thread, but make sure to check out the entire discussion and have your say at the link below.

  • kwcsports: “I’ve had 5 a few times, still shot 80+ haha.”
  • jda: “I played a course for the first time, had 8 birdies, 9 doubles and an eagle. The infamous no-par round. I kept the scorecard. Every shot had a creek that I did not know about, or I was within 8-10 feet for a birdie look. To this day, I have no idea if I should be really jacked up or mad about that performance.”
  • jvincent: “I think my record is either 5 or 6. Probably shot 75.”
  • Instron4204: “3 birdies and shot a 92…man I suck!”

Entire Thread: “Most Birdies Without Breaking Par.”

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Best current stock shaft 2026 – GolfWRXers discuss

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In our forums, one user is asking for thoughts on the best stock shafts offered in 2026. Stock shafts are the shafts included with a club when it’s purchased from retailers or OEMs.

@DTorres asked:

The last couple years has seen a lot of updates and additions to no upcharge stock shafts, which do you think is the best offering in 2026?

Im a bit of a shaft nerd and recently during my Members Testing with the Callaway Quantum Triple Diamond I found the updated Project X Denali Frost Black to be a fantastic stock shaft. I absolutely did not mesh well with the original Denali. Just curious what other people think are the current best Stock shaft offerings out with new models and stock Ventus options and LinQ options popping up here and there.

We were given the option for any stock shafts for our members review. I went with the 70g Black Frost 6.5 because it’s a shaft I don’t have, it’s an updated version of the original Denali and hear little about. I typically use a Diamana WB, GD VF or a HOF Raptor. I’m not saying it was neck and neck with any of those but it was a pleasant surprise I’m not accustomed to in stock shaft offerings.

Our members in the forum have been offering up their own thoughts on the best stock shafts available in 2026. Here are a few posts from the thread, but make sure to check out the entire discussion and have your say at the link below.

  • rsballer10: “IMO – MCA Ka’ili White Darkwave, Tensei 1k Black/white, UST Lin-Q White. People are free to spend their money however they see fit, but for me personally the shaft catalogs these days have enough options that I don’t see the value of a $400 upcharge. I have never had a problem finding a no upcharge shaft that fits the bend profile and weight that I need. Whether the paint job is good enough or not is above my pay scale.”
  • bcflyguy1: “Project X Titan Black. I’ve had one in 60TX in my Quantum TD Max for several weeks now. Have to give Titlieist their flowers for finding a way to make it available as a featured option; very shrewd bit of business and one that I suspect will be duplicated by the other companies. TT/PX have a certified banger on their hands with Titan.”
  • CTG77: “Undoubtedly, it’s the Tensei 1K RIP shafts from Titleist. The Tensei line gives about 98% of the performance of a Ventus VeloCore+ shaft at a tiny fraction of the cost if you’re looking for a blue or red profile. The white is not an exact match for Ventus Black, but it’s closer to it than the non-VeloCore+ Ventus shafts that come from Callaway or formerly came from TaylorMade.”

Entire Thread: “Best current stock shaft 2026.”

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GolfWRX’s Father’s Day Gift Guide (2026)

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A reminder from your friends at GolfWRX: Father’s Day is June 21. And as we do every year, we’re rounding up the best gifts for dad.

As we say every year, there’s no better golf-related Father’s Day gift than a round of golf with pops. Be it a country club or your favorite muni, take the time to get together to play 18 if you can.

Let’s get to the gifts.

Ghost Golf Qualifier Diamond Polo

We like the new polos that Ghost is offering, as the fabric and fit are so good. These new Qualifier Collection polos breathe well, are lightweight, stretch with your swing, and of course look great. You can wear them on the course, in the office, or just out at a casual event and they will fit right in.

Buy here.

STR8-Strip Grip Tape Remover

If your dad is an equipment aficionado and tinkers with his clubs, this tool works wonders. Removing grip tape has never been easier, just put a little head on the tape and the STR8-Strip peals it right off the shaft without any damage.

Buy here.

Why Golf: Putting Thing

When it comes to practice, it is good to have a purpose. This “Putting Thing” sure does it. We know from personal experience how challenging it can be and how rewarding it is on the practice green. This also provides some competition for your kiddo to see who will unload the dishwasher or do the next chore around the house.

Buy here.

OluKai Lae‘ahi Men’s Breathable Slip-On Shoes

Riding to and from the course in style and comfort is always a good thing. If you’re in a hurry, it’s a nice feature to slide into your shoes and get to the tee time. For the post-game shoe, at your locker or while putting your clubs away in the car. Nice to slide into a shoe that looks good anywhere. Pair that with meeting the family for dinner, no need to change!

Buy here.

Therabody Theragun Relief

A little wellness goes a long way. Keeping loose is a good way to go when it comes to the weekend game or treatment during the week. If there is a little ache or pain, the Theragun is there to help out. Help loosen up the back for a pre-game warm-up or cool-down. 

Buy here.

World Cup golf apparel

Something for the soccer dads. Embrace the World Cup fever this summer on the course with custom gear to support the nation of your choice.

Buy here.

FootJoy Pro SL spikeless golf shoes

Give the old man a break and save his feet with the Footjoy Pro SL Men’s Spikeless Golf Shoes for some added comfort on the course.

Buy here.

Bushnell Wingman 2 GPS speaker

Combine all the hits as well as some game improvement with the Wingman 2 Golf GPS Speaker by getting audible distance readings from 38,000+ courses worldwide through the Wingman 2 remote or speaker.

Buy here.

Personalized Titleist Pro V1 golf balls

The No. 1 ball in golf is a safe bet, and the Pro V1 fits the largest chunk of the bell curve if you don’t know what ball pops plays. Add personalization for a, well, personal touch!

Buy here.

 

  • GolfWRX may earn a commission for purchases made through links on this page, at no extra cost to you.

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