Opinion & Analysis
2017 Arnold Palmer Invitational: Odds, Picks, and Props
The PGA Tour continues the Florida swing this week at “Arnie’s Place,” Bay Hill Club and Lodge. There are a number of storylines at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but none more important than honoring the memory of Mr. Palmer at the first Invitational after his passing. Players and attendees will be able to see the new bronze statue of Mr. Palmer overlooking the first and the 10th tees.
The field is another major topic of conversation this week, both those playing and those not playing. The field is headlined by defending champion Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama and Henrik Stenson. Notable names missing include Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas and world No. 1 Dustin Johnson.
- Tournament Record: 264 by Payne Stewart in 1987
- Single-Round Record: Andy Bean (1981), Greg Norman (1984) and Adam Scott (2014) share the single-round record of 62.
The Course
The par-72 Bay Hill Club and Lodge plays just over 7,419 yards. It was dubbed “the best course in Florida” by Arnold Palmer in 1965 and has been a staple on Tour since the 1979 Florida Citrus Open. It features generous fairways and punishing rough. In terms of rough proximity, it was ranked as the toughest on Tour in 2016, averaging 51 feet, 2 inches. The rough, along with a number of forced carries and doglegs over water, is a recipe for disasters and heroics.
Odds
Past Champs in the field: Martin Laird +10000, Jason Day +1400
Favorites:
- Rory Mcilroy +700
- Henrik Stenson +900
- Jason Day +1400
- Hideki Matsuyama +1400
- Rickie Folwer +1600
- Justin Rose +1800
- Thomas Pieters +3000
- Brandt Snedeker +3500
- Paul Casey +3500
- Tyrell Hatton +4000
Picks
My Pick: I’m all in on Rory McIlroy (+700) this week. With wide, generous fairways, Rory should be able to let it rip with the driver and overpower the course. He’s well rested coming off of his rib injury and finished T-7 in the WGC-Mexico championship. He’s hitting 73 percent of fairways and 76 percent of greens on the European Tour this year. His accuracy and recent putting form make him a scoring machine. I think McIlroy’s game fits Bay Hill, and the favorite has won 7 of the past 11 tournaments on the PGA Tour.
Value Pick: I’m going with Wesley Bryan at +5000. He’s been playing incredible golf as of late and has found his footing on Tour. He hasn’t finished outside the top-7 in his past three events. You’ll never get +5000 on a player on this kind of run again; these odds can’t be passed up.
Long Shot: I’m going with Sam Saunders at +30,000. This is a pick more from the heart than anything else. It would be an incredible story to see Saunders win at his grandfather’s tournament, especially this year. He’s having a rough season so far, four missed cuts in six starts, but under these circumstances you can’t count him out.
Props
Will there be a playoff: Yes (+275) No (-400); I’m going with “No” here. There hasn’t been playoff since Tim Herron beat Tom Lehman in ’99. Bay Hill lends itself to drama. Whether it’s a ball in the water or a heroic hole-out like Robert Gamez’s 7-iron to beat Greg Norman, I think this tournament is going to be won on No. 18.
Wesley Bryan (-115) v. Ryan Moore (-115): Bryan is a lock in my opinion. He’s finished inside the top-7 in his past three starts while Moore has a T18, T28 and a missed cut in the same events. Bryan is in great form and I’d take him against just about anyone.
Hole-in-One – Yes (+135) No (-175): I’m going with “Yes” this week. The Par 3s are tough this week; every par 3 played above par last year and only the sixth plays less than 200 yards. With that said, there should be some accessible pin locations where the ball will funnel back to the pin. I think we get to see at least one ace this week.
McIlroy, Stenson, Fowler (+285) vs. the Field (-425): This is another no-brainer to me. You have to go with McIlroy, Stenson, and Fowler here. McIlroy is the favorite and my pick to win and Stenson has the distance and ball striking to compete every week. Fowler didn’t play last week but is on a mini hot streak with a win and a T4 in his past three starts.
Opinion & Analysis
AVL: My U.S. Amateur local qualifying experience
This past Monday, I played in the U.S. Amateur local qualifier at Rock Creek Country Club in Portland, Oregon. A full tee sheet from 7:30 a.m. to 1:55 p.m., the top 11 scores would make it to the U.S. Amateur final qualifying.
I teed off at 10:48 a.m.. With the 7:30 am tee time, you can get a feel for the leaders’ pace, and they were off and running on the challenging setup at Rock Creek.
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Getting to the highlight of the round on the par five 17th, a drive up the left side and 212 yards left to the front hole location. I took out a 5-iron with plans of middle of the green. The ball ended up 8 feet left of the hole, pin high. A slight downhill putt dropped in for an eagle 3 on the 17th. With the cut line looking to be anywhere from -2 to even par. This was the boost I had been waiting for all day.
With making par from the trees on 18, it was time to wait for a potential playoff with a posted score of one under par 71.
Three hours later, it was playoff time. 8 players for 6 spots. I made par on the playoff hole, which was good enough to advance to the U.S. Amateur final qualifying in July. USGA qualifiers sure deliver on all of the emotions in golf!
Club Junkie
Building my 2026 gamer WITB: Ranking the contenders and new putter projects – Club Junkie Podcast
The annual What’s In The Bag build is underway, and on this episode of Club Junkie, Brian breaks down the clubs currently leading the race for a spot in his 2026 gamer setup. From drivers and fairway woods to irons, wedges, and shafts, he ranks the equipment that’s performing best and explains what’s separating the front runners from the rest of the field.
Brian also heads into the workshop to discuss several putter projects currently on the bench. From head options and shaft choices to build ideas and testing plans, he shares what he’s working on and which putters could become serious contenders for the bag this season.
If you’re a gear junkie who loves equipment testing, club building, and the never-ending pursuit of the perfect setup, this episode is for you.
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Club Junkie
Tour Edge Exotics mini driver review + TaylorMade Spider ZT Max first look – Club Junkie
On this episode of Club Junkie, I put the new Tour Edge Exotics Mini Driver to the test and break down the performance, forgiveness, distance, and where it fits compared to a traditional driver or strong fairway wood. If you have been curious about adding a mini driver to the bag, this one is worth a look.
I also dive into the new TaylorMade Spider ZT Max putter that was recently spotted and discuss the growing zero torque putter trend. Plus, there is a closer look at the new Project X Titan Yellow shaft showing up on the PGA Tour and what makes it different from other profiles currently out there.
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mac_the_knife
Mar 15, 2017 at 3:48 am
No Spieth … no Thomas …. no DJ … and you conveniently missed out no Mickelson. I don’t care about “scheduling issues”, the first year after The King is gone and they don’t play in his tournament after all he did for the game and therefore for them says it all.
No class.