Opinion & Analysis

The Numbers Behind Rickie Fowler’s Improvement

Published

9 years ago

May 9, 2017

Two years ago, fan favorite Rickie Fowler took what many felt was a leap into superstardom with his win at The Players Championship. Since then, Fowler has continued his success and was in contention at the Masters this April. Many analysts and fans feel that Fowler is on pace to have the best season of his career and perhaps secure his first championship victory.

The notion that this could be Fowler’s best season has some merit, as he is currently No. 1 in Adjusted Scoring Average on the PGA Tour. Many (including Fowler himself) have credited his shorter-length driver shaft as a key part of his success. In this article, I’m going to examine the data and see what Fowler’s strengths have been this year compared to his previous seasons on the PGA Tour.

Scoring

There are two big factors that are immediately noticeable in Fowler’s game in 2017:

Fowler is playing the par-4’s the best he has ever played them.
His Bogey Rate is the lowest it has ever been.

When it comes to scoring metrics, Par-4 Scoring Average and Bogey Rates strongly correlate to success on the PGA Tour. Par-4’s are critical because the average Tour player plays roughly eleven par-4’s per round. I also believe that a player’s performance on par-4’s gives a better indication of their all around game, as it requires a driver (which par-3’s do not). In par-5 performance, sheer power off the tee plays a major role. Par-4’s, on the other hand, require distance and accuracy off the tee, quality approach shots and strong putting — along with being able to get up and down when the player misses the green.

In terms of Bogey Rate, it correlates to success on the PGA Tour more than birdie rate. My conclusion is that bogey rate also includes double bogeys, which are killers to good rounds. Furthermore, not only does avoiding bogey mean being able to get up and down when you miss a green, but one of the best ways to avoid bogeys is to hit an approach shot so close to the hole that three putts are unlikely. If putts are not falling, at least the golfer is coming away with a par.

From a scoring perspective, these are two improvements that Fowler needed to make in order to jump into a discussion about the top-3 golfers in the world.

Driving

Rickie_Fowler_Improvement_2

While much of the discussion about Fowler’s improvement revolves around his driving and shortening the length of the driver shaft to 43.5 inches, he was actually a better driver of the ball last season than he is so far this year. The reality is that Fowler has been a good driver of the ball in his career and any improvement is likely to be minute.

Related: Rickie Fowler WITB 2017

Putting

On the putting green is where we see some marked improvement from Fowler in 2017. He has been an underrated putter over the years, but this season he has taken hit putting to the next level. He ranks 6th in Stroke-Gained Putting, 59 spots better than last year and 18 spots better than any of his previous four seasons

Short Game

Short-game performance used to be a major weakness for Fowler in his early years on Tour. He’s been excellent around the green for the previous three seasons, however, and he continues to be one of the best short game performers on the PGA Tour.

Approach Shots

Approach shots are the part Fowler’s game that has improved the most. In particular, his play from the Yellow Zone (125-175 yards) and the Red Zone (175-225 yards) has improved. Those shots typically “count more” than shots from the Green Zone (75-125 yards), where he’s been excellent over the years. He’s also having the best season of his career on shots from the fairway.

All of these metrics bode very well for Fowler. His success this season is not smoke and mirrors; it has been supported by sustaining his strengths (driving, short game, Green Zone play) and making significant improvements in the weakest parts of his game (Yellow Zone play). Fowler’s game is right in line with shooting low scores and I like his chances at The Players Championship and for the rest of the season as he seeks the first major championship of his career. It wouldn’t surprise me if he gets it.

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Rich Hunt

Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

19 Comments

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Jun 28, 2019 at 5:59 pm

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Reply Report comment
Sam

May 15, 2017 at 4:16 pm

Can’t win them all, it’s hard to win on the tour

Reply Report comment
MRC

May 10, 2017 at 6:00 pm

Well done Richie.
Stats like these are worth reading.
Keep up the good work.

Reply Report comment
Happyday_J

May 10, 2017 at 12:42 pm

Rich, your analysis has always been very eye opening and informative and for myself has definitely opened my eyes to a different way of play, so thank you for taking your time to write the articles. Question, when you state:
“Furthermore, not only does avoiding bogey mean being able to get up and down when you miss a green, but one of the best ways to avoid bogeys is to hit an approach shot so close to the hole that three putts are unlikely. If putts are not falling, at least the golfer is coming away with a par.”

Have you found that statistically it is often more advantageous to fire at the pin to have a closer next shot even if it results in more greens than leaving yourself a longer putt by playing safely to the wider side of the green? Is there a breakeven point?

Reply Report comment
- Richie Hunt
  
  May 10, 2017 at 4:46 pm
  
  Generally, the best golf strategy is more offensive than defensive in nature and that includes firing at pins. Of course, it depends on the situation. I have to do more research on the subject, but I tend to determine 3 different likely positions I will end up if I miss the green and then label them as:
  
  A = good % of getting up-and-down
  B = moderate % of getting up-and-down
  C = poor % of getting up-and-down
  
  I plan to avoid ‘C’ at all costs and if there’s a decent chance that aiming at the flag can result in landing in that ‘C’ zone, I avoid doing so. A lot of the time the ‘C Zone’ is a front bunker since there is a higher likelihood of the front bunker plugging.
  
  If you’re planning a round (practice round), I would take a handful of golf balls and hit chips from those areas and see how close you hit to the hole and you determine if they are a ‘A’, ‘B’ or ‘C’ Zone. I really believe that effective practice rounds are more about understanding what’s going on around the green more than anything else.
  
  Hope this helps.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Happyday_J
    
    May 10, 2017 at 6:26 pm
    
    It does. Thanks again.
    
    Reply Report comment
larrybud

May 10, 2017 at 7:20 am

Rich, what does “driver effectiveness” mean? What’s the metric?

Reply Report comment
- Richie Hunt
  
  May 10, 2017 at 4:34 pm
  
  Driving Effectiveness is an algorithm that I use based off the following metrics:
  
  1. Driving Distance on All Drives
  2. Hit Fairway %
  3. Avg. Distance to Edge of Fwy (on tee shots that miss the fairway)
  4. Hit Fairway Bunker %
  5. Missed Fairway – Other %
  
  The algorithm runs the data thru the courses that the player has played and then ‘normalizes’ the data thru 35 of the courses played on Tour (this prevents players from masking their effectiveness off the tee by only scheduling events that fits their style of driving).
  
  It’s basically a very advanced way of calculating ‘Total Driving’, but is far more accurate in determining actual driving skill as it relates to shooting lower scores.
  
  Reply Report comment
Matty

May 9, 2017 at 8:56 pm

I know this is unrelated to the topic.

This is your first article since the Masters, and I would like to say well-played, sir. The top-3 in this year’s Masters were on your list of 20 players.

I’ll be looking forward to reading your Masters article every year.

Reply Report comment
- Richie Hunt
  
  May 10, 2017 at 4:25 pm
  
  Thanks for the kind words.
  
  Reply Report comment
The Dude

May 9, 2017 at 8:43 pm

great article!!

Reply Report comment
Patricknorm

May 9, 2017 at 12:24 pm

In the final round of this year’s Masters, Fowler shot 76. In the first three rounds Rickie was a putting machine, continually making those testy clean up putts for par. That magic deserted him in round 4 which lead to his poor finish relative to his fine play in the first three rounds.
The other issue is one of confidence and I’m wondering if Fowler lost that feeling during his fourth round. I’m not disputing his putting stat, the numbers don’t lie, but under pressure, if Fowler wants to win a major he needs to putt like a 6 th ranked putter in strokes gained.
I wonder what distance in the putting metric Fowler needs to improve upon. Over to you Rich.

Reply Report comment
- Richie Hunt
  
  May 9, 2017 at 3:44 pm
  
  The golden number at ANGC is 50.
  
  That’s 50 GIR.
  
  Almost all of the winners at the Masters have hit at least 50 GIR in the event. IIRC, Rickie only hit 30 GIR after the 3rd round and just wasn’t hitting the ball that well and was likely to flame out come Sunday.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - God Shamgod
    
    May 10, 2017 at 9:09 am
    
    I’ve not seen that before, but it is very interesting. Augusta does punish you badly if you are constantly trying to get up and down. Rickie was doing a great job of getting up and down the first three days, but that means he was sinking some 5-10ft pars which is hard to sustain.
    
    Reply Report comment
Leon

May 9, 2017 at 9:14 am

All I know is that he could not close the deal on Sunday under the heat.

Reply Report comment
- Dill Pickelson
  
  May 10, 2017 at 2:25 am
  
  you don’t know much, then
  
  Reply Report comment

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