Opinion & Analysis

Who will win the 2016 FedEx Cup, and why?

Published

10 years ago

Sep 20, 2016

Last week the GolfWRX Editors asked me, “Are there any statistical similarities between the FedEx Cup winners since the advent of the Playoff format?” Lot’s of work to do but, if I do it, could I use it to predict this year’s winner?

Background

The PGA Tour’s unique FedEx Cup playoff system, and large $10 million prize, was devised in 2005 specifically to incentivize Tiger Woods to play in more events. Tiger’s immense popularity had divided the PGA Tour into two tours: the Big Tour, made up of the events in which Tiger played, and the rest. Evidently, there was a large enough divide in TV ratings that it was hard to lure sponsors to non-Tiger events. Launched in 2007, the strategy worked! Tiger complied, and won two of the first three FedEx Cups.

Post-Tiger, the FedEx Cup continues to serve its purpose. Top players plan their schedules to finish in the top 125 in the FedEx Cup rankings and play in enough events to qualify for The Playoffs, but also conserve energy for the grind of the four-event, five-week playoff series. This year’s addition of the Ryder Cup in Week 6 no doubt played a role in Jordan Spieth’s decision to skip both the Olympics and his defense of the John Deere Championship.

My Research

Yes, there are some similarities in the FedEx Cup winners.

Players don’t need to win the Tour Championship in order to win the FedEx Cup, but it helps. Seven of the nine won the Tour Championship (the final event) to win the Cup. Exceptions occurred in 2009, when Tiger finished second in the Tour Championship but won the Cup, and in 2008, when Vijay Singh finished 22nd in the final event but still won the Cup. Vijay had won the first two playoff events (The Barclays and the Deutsch Bank Championship), giving him enough points to win WITHOUT even playing in the final event. The next year, a rule change was made to prevent that from happening again.

A prior win in their winning FedEx Cup season is evidently important.

Eight of the nine had at least one PGA Tour win prior to the Tour Championship. Jordan Spieth had a phenomenal 2015 with five prior wins, and Tiger showed exactly why the FedEx Cup was created with six prior wins in each of his winning years.

It helps to be ranked near the top in FedEx Cup points going into the Tour Championship. Six of the nine winners were ranked first or second, except:

Jim Furyk was ranked No. 11 in 2010.
Bill Haas was ranked No. 25 in 2011.

Screen Shot 2016-09-19 at 12.01.50 PM

What about performance ranking in the two major parts of the game going into the final event?

Screen Shot 2016-09-19 at 12.00.56 PM

Strokes Gained Putting: On average 40 percent of the game.
Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: The other 60 percent of the game, or everything other than putting.
Seven of nine winners were ranked in the top 5 or better on the PGA Tour in one or more of these stats leading into the Tour Championship.

My Prediction

I am guessing that one needs to be in the top 15 in FedEx Cup points heading into this week’s Tour Championship to be in a position to win it all. OK, I get it that Bill Haas was No. 25 going in and won. This was a fluke. Heck, if he does not have that last-ditch, miraculous save from the water, he does not win.

First, let’s exclude the three players that did not have a win in the 2015-16 season.

Next, eliminate those not in the top-10 in one of the two major Strokes Gained performance rankings going into this week’s Tour Championship.

This leaves FIVE players that fit all the criteria, but only one can win. Here are my reasons for selecting the winner (Jordan Spieth) as well as my thinking on the other four.

Click to enlarge.

Won’t the Tour Championship be interesting to watch this year? Let me know your thoughts in the comments section.

For a Strokes Gained analysis of your game, log onto www.shotbyshot.com.

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Peter Sanders

In 1989, Peter Sanders founded Golf Research Associates, LP, creating what is now referred to as Strokes Gained Analysis. His goal was to design and market a new standard of statistically based performance analysis programs using proprietary computer models. A departure from “traditional stats,” the program provided analysis with answers, supported by comparative data. In 2006, the company’s website, ShotByShot.com, was launched. It provides interactive, Strokes Gained analysis for individual golfers and more than 150 instructors and coaches that use the program to build and monitor their player groups. Peter has written, or contributed to, more than 60 articles in major golf publications including Golf Digest, Golf Magazine and Golf for Women. From 2007 through 2013, Peter was an exclusive contributor and Professional Advisor to Golf Digest and GolfDigest.com. Peter also works with PGA Tour players and their coaches to interpret the often confusing ShotLink data. Zach Johnson has been a client for nearly five years. More recently, Peter has teamed up with Smylie Kaufman’s swing coach, Tony Ruggiero, to help guide Smylie’s fast-rising career.

10 Comments

Guia

Sep 20, 2016 at 8:55 pm

JD

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ooffa

Sep 20, 2016 at 1:09 pm

Hopefully anybody other than Patrick Reed. Oh and Bubba, Anyone else would be fine.

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Justin

Sep 20, 2016 at 11:35 am

I was thinking along similar lines Peter. I think Spieth would be an “out of nowhere” pick for some people (even though he’s won twice this year) because he wasn’t nearly as dominant this year as last year. It’s very difficult to keep up a string of dominance and that makes Tiger’s run even more remarkable. But I think the time is right for Jordan and he wants it the most. I think Spieth, DJ, Day finish 1,2,3 in that order. The absolute dream scenario for the Tour is that those 3 finish top 3 in any order. Very rarely do your stars all come together to battle it out to the end. It doesn’t happen in any other major sport unless your team happens to make it, and I think that’s why golf is so great.

Reply Report comment
- cwt
  
  Sep 21, 2016 at 2:36 pm
  
  Haven’t looked at the stats, but it seems like Spieth doesn’t play as well when Day or Dustin are playing well. It kinda feels like he gets overpowered by those two when they are on their games and it gets in Spieth’s head. Certainly would like to see Spieth pull if off with one of those two in contention, but if Spieth is paired with one of them in the last group on Sunday, good luck.
  
  Reply Report comment
matt

Sep 20, 2016 at 9:39 am

Appreciate the analysis but what about no player has ever won back to back FEC. I think Patrick Reed wins it.

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Peter Sanders

Sep 20, 2016 at 8:32 am

Fun to watch. While I like Rory, he has struggled badly with his putting all year. His new putting coach fixed him and obviously pumped his confidence but let’s see if it continues. As you say Spieth has been inconsistent thru this year but I believe very motivated and working into form.

Reply Report comment
Redx

Sep 20, 2016 at 8:25 am

Thank you for the analysis Peter.
Personally I think DJ looks great. Seems to be dismissed only as it’s difficult to win back to back, however, in this case after the week rest the fatigue / expectation factor that usually intrudes in a quest for back to back wins is not present here. DJ Has great claims.

Likewise I expect J-Day to be ready to go.
Who knows which Rory will turn up and on these smaller greens complexes Scotty could fire up as a one off

Personally I think it’s wide open. Can’t wait.

Overall I think it’s wide open

Reply Report comment
- Peter Sanders
  
  Sep 20, 2016 at 8:35 am
  
  Redx, very good point about the week off. I considered it and, as you say, chose to dismiss it. Bottom line, I think Jordan is the best putter on Tour.
  
  Reply Report comment
desmond

Sep 20, 2016 at 8:02 am

I see Rory over Spieth — Rory changed everything about his putting; Jordan is consistently inconsistent this year. At the same time, I like Spieth, but …

Reply Report comment
- desmond
  
  Sep 25, 2016 at 8:28 pm
  
  Called it!
  
  (lol)
  
  Reply Report comment

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Opinion & Analysis

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