Opinion & Analysis

5 Dark Horse Picks for the 2016 U.S. Ryder Cup Team

Published

10 years ago

Jul 22, 2016

With one leg left in the majors, I wanted to examine the U.S. Ryder Cup standings, again. This time, though, I wanted to look at the players that are outside the top 15 in the U.S. Ryder Cup standings that have metrics that comply with making a quality Ryder Cup participant.

While ballstriking has a much greater influence on Tour success than short game shots around the green, historically the best Ryder Cup players have excelled around the greens. Putting is always important in terms of winning events on Tour, but it’s nearly impossible to project putting for any player. Although there are certainly players that are significantly, statistically better on certain greens grasses than others.

Where the U.S. Team has struggled the most over the years is in the foursome (alternate shot) format. The fourball (low score) format has not been much of an issue for the U.S. Team. Each format stresses different facets of the game. So given the U.S. Team’s struggles in the foursome format, this list of players are more skilled toward that format.

Charles Howell III

Howell fits well in the fourball format because he makes a lot of birdies and plays the par-4s, par-5s and par-3s well. However, he’s been a competent driver of the ball this year and has been pretty good from the Red Zone (175-225 yards), which will be featured at this year’s venue, Hazeltine National Golf Club in Chaska, Minnesota. He tops it off with great short-game play, and this makes for a competent foursome player. Pair Howell with a good iron player, and that could make for a tough foursome team to beat.

Jimmy Walker

Walker has slumped since March, but he had a good Ryder Cup showing in 2014 and is still an excellent short-game player and good putter. He has traditionally been a much better putter and iron player. The Bogey Rate and slump concerns me, but he is a player to keep an eye out for and see if steps up his play down the stretch.

Webb Simpson

Simpson has been brilliant in virtually every part of the game, but has struggled with the transition to the non-anchored putter. That has been the main contributor to him being unable to win this year, and his high bogey rate. His putting, however, has been trending upward. Like Walker, he’s a player to watch out for to see if the putting is starting to come along. If so, he would make an excellent Ryder Cup teammate.

Kevin Streelman

Like Simpson, the only thing holding Streelman back has been his putting. His putting has trended considerably upward, however, which you can see in the chart below (the dotted line is the trend line).

With better putting, Streelman becomes a more appealing fourball player, but can also drive it well, strike it well on the mid-to-long approach shots and gets up-and-down if he misses the green.

Kevin Na

Na is an unheralded player, but has the game to make for a tough Ryder Cup competitor. This season he has struggled a bit with the driver, but the counter to that in the foursome format is to stick him with a good iron player that plays well out of the rough.

Na has also typically been a much better putter than he has been this year, and could be due to hit a hot streak soon. So, the U.S. team would have a promising foursome player, as well as a player that makes a lot of birdies, which works well in the fourball format. He has also typically been an even better player on the par-5s, so like his putting, I wouldn’t be surprised if his par-5 play picks up soon as well.

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Rich Hunt

Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

16 Comments

Bryant

Jul 24, 2016 at 6:19 pm

I think that Simpson would be a complete liability to the US Squad. He has not played well in like 3 years. I would take someone like Charlie Hoffman or Bill Haas.

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- Bryant
  
  Jul 26, 2016 at 8:15 am
  
  The Americans need to grow up and play with who they paired with. Just go out and compete.
  
  Reply Report comment
- Marty Moose
  
  Jul 26, 2016 at 10:07 am
  
  Webb skied his 3-wood off the first tee last Ryder Cup. Not a good choice.
  
  Reply Report comment
BD57

Jul 24, 2016 at 6:13 pm

These comments … are a good argument for not having comments.

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Matt Mitchell

Jul 24, 2016 at 12:25 pm

Seriously!?! You are free and unrestrained to offer your opinion but this author is not granted the same freedom though he writes from a place of experience and application!?! Just baffling man! Simply astonishing that you got so butt hurt over my comment! I guess your feelings and self-congratulating opinions are all that matter!?! Good luck with the life amigo!

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- TCJ
  
  Jul 26, 2016 at 3:21 pm
  
  I’d say he is already using a pseudonym…
  
  Reply Report comment
TheInfidel

Jul 23, 2016 at 5:12 pm

Free tip for 2016.

If the USA want to get beat like a drum again you need Webb and Na!

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Steve

Jul 23, 2016 at 2:59 pm

What a bad meaningless article

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Matthew Mitchell

Jul 23, 2016 at 1:13 pm

So it is just a coincidence that a player makes x number of putts within 15 feet in a given round which then contributes to the strokes gained putting statistic which is measure against all players on the same course. A coincidence is just happen stance and shows no direct intentionality or relevant skill as it relates to what is measured. A statistic is a numerical aggregate of the same occurrence, fact, outcome, etc over a given period of time. One instance may be a coincidence like the probability of you making a putt from 10 feet but these guys making a putt from 10 feet is over 40%. Why would this be a coincidence. I seriously don’t think you really know what that word means. And for the safety of us all, don’t swim in public and subject the children to this horror show of stupefaction and ignorance!

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- Matt Mitchell
  
  Jul 24, 2016 at 12:06 pm
  
  Haha seriously! Says the man who got kicked out of a public pool. Just contribute something worthwhile. Sorry I called it out but know what the words mean before you make a definitive statement about them. You made a negative comment about this article which means you have just judged your own intent of leaving a comment! I assume your original comment was to show the uselessness of this article? If that is the case then why in the world are you calling me out for you calling the author out? Grow up bro, read a book, and at least measure your comments regarding others with some modicum of self reference.
  
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Joe sixpack

Jul 22, 2016 at 4:05 pm

Just not very interesting.

Make a clear point and explain it. Showing lists of rankings in various stats is pretty meaningless. Who cares if someone is 20th or 120th in “yellow zone play” if the difference between the two is a fraction of a stroke per round? You need to give context. You need to explain what matters and why.

All this shows me is an excel table that you created for each player and then cut and pasted. Highlight the stats you think are relevant and explain why.

Rather than throw out a few dark horse candidates, pick someone who you think is the best candidate and explain why.

This is the kind of stuff they teach in jr. High…..

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- Richie Hunt
  
  Jul 22, 2016 at 7:59 pm
  
  I hear your point. However, much of this is difficult to quite translate between stroke play on Tour and Ryder Cup play. For instance, ‘only a half a stroke per round’ is actually a tremendous difference in a player’s season. If a player improves by a half stroke, they are going to improve roughly 45 to 70 spots on the Money List (Money is always hard to project due to different purse sizes in events and ties splitting the purse).
  
  Also, the subject has been a recurring article for myself on this Web site….what goes into good Ryder Cup players and what types of players are good in fourball vs. foursome formats. So at the sake of sounding redundant, we kept this one more brief.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Joe sixpack
    
    Jul 22, 2016 at 10:51 pm
    
    Amusing that you misquoted me. That won’t help you win arguments or seem more professional. (And your goal here is to develop a reputation as a statistician, right? A stats guy needs to be precise in his language.)
    
    I don’t see how any of this helps your cause. Your analysis of stroke play stats is inherently difficult to use as a predictor of match play performance in the pressure cooker of the Ryder cup, as you acknowledge. So why bother? You end up with an incoherent piece that says little and doesn’t do much to increase your stature as a statistician.
    
    There are other stats guys out there doing a lot better work right now. You’re going to have a tough time competing with them with this kind of stuff. Maybe I’m missing something, but I don’t know how a golf statistician can earn a living posting on a website like this. Seems to me you need some tour players to hire you to advise them. In my opinion this kind of article isn’t going to help make that happen.
    
    Reply Report comment
    - Matthew Mitchell
      
      Jul 23, 2016 at 1:06 pm
      
      Wow, Joe Sixpack- you are kind of a d-bag! Your name suggests as much and you think far more of your position than I think you own in mental awareness to substantiate. Were you hoping that Rich provide a far deeper, more in depth article on the subject that is, by definition, subjective! They are his dark horses and they don’t have to be yours. I could tell you to go to hell and you don’t have to go though your critique here may say otherwise. Did you want him to take the stats and use them in a Bayesian prediction model for the purposesof probability calculus. Perhaps a hint of modal logic and possible world argumentation of different scenarios playing out in different possible situations that would best support the above stats WHICH HE DID EXPLAIN UNDER THE HEADER! Lets get into the weather predictions and past scenarios of when those players played in similar weather conditions. Maybe He could have dug deeper in the probabilistic permutations and calculated which player would statistically do best with other known Ryder Cup players. Were you hoping this would be peer reviewed by other golf scholars like Butch Harmon, the ghost of Bobby Jones, and every Golf Channel commentator! Next time you think of writing on this site, I want you to do two things. 1.) Don’t contribute 2.) Test and see if what you say has anything relevant at all- soon to be Joe Kegger! (Opposed to six pack- have I lost you yet). Also, rather than being an annoying troll talking about things far above your pays scale, be far more concerned with excellence in your own contributions than the lack of quality provided by others. It may serve you well. I think this may only be the 3rd time I have ever contributed on this site but I can’t leave stupid and spiteful alone.
      
      Reply Report comment
      - Matt Mitchell
        
        Jul 24, 2016 at 12:17 pm
        
        Man, you really don’t like people making negative comments after you vomit all over the Internet. Let me put it this way, we have already established that you don’t know the definition of the words coincidence and statistic so I would be hard pressed to think you are qualified to peg a persons disposition!
        
        Reply Report comment
Clemson Sucks

Jul 22, 2016 at 11:08 am

If any of these 5 are on our team we are in trouble.

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Opinion & Analysis

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