This summer has been an eventful one for Sergio Garcia. Three tournaments, three finishes of 13-under or better. He’s found peace and maturity in older age. And he might be engaged to a caddie who sports a 100 percent win rate on his bag.

Yep, two months of wildly successful times for the Serge…except a mop-headed punk keeps fortifying a brick wall that separates Garcia from his dreams.

The story of the summer has been The Rise of Rory McIlroy (Act III), as the 25-year-old Northern Irishman can’t seem to stop winning: The BMW PGA Championship, the Open Championship, the Bridgestone, they all come to him!

The latter two arrived at the expense of runner-up Garcia, who also temporarily destroyed a wedding ring around the same time he may have put one on his own girl’s finger.

For the 34-year-old, this has been a continuation of a career-long hex. Certainly the Spaniard’s 19 combined PGA and European Tour victories are nothing to sniff at. But he has seemed to get in his own way at times, and his major-less record remains an extraordinary cross to bear.

He’s risen to No. 3 in the world and still can’t get a major win. Heck, he produced some of his best professional golf in 2014 and has but one win to show for it.

Really, in one sense, Garcia’s 2014 serves as another confirmation that a major title will not be among his golfing accomplishments.

Yet on the eve of the PGA Championship, I defend the opposite tact. More than ever, I’m convinced Garcia will eventually hurl the major monkey off his back.

The caveats here are real, and I’ve already listed some above, but more sound affirmative reasons manifest themselves.

First, we must understand that Garcia’s 2014 campaign is not an aberration. Four years ago, a distraught and heartbroken Spaniard harbored thoughts of quitting the game amid poor form and the aftermath of a crushing breakup. He dropped as far as 85th in the world.

But the response to the wading period was robust. Garcia’s game began to re-emerge in the middle of 2011 and then bullied its way back to top billing with back-to-back victories (including a 11-shot triumph) in the fall.

That bumped him back up to 17th in the World Golf Rankings, a seven top-10, one-win 2012 steadied him at 16th and a nine top-10 campaign the next year mosied him to 10th. And Garcia’s 2014 has been beyond phenomenal. In 19 events, he boasts 10 top-10s and seven top-threes—many of which came in huge tournaments.

Garcia, then, returned to his world-class form four years ago and has put his game on a steady incline since. Based on this pattern, even accounting for a bit of regression in 2015, Garcia is in line to retain his world-class play for years ahead. And elite-level performance means more legitimate shots at majors.

Then there’s the specter of Garcia’s age. While the Spaniard’s stay in the professional game seems ancient, he is still just 34 years old. And that is a pretty good spot to be in for this sport. As the narrative goes, golfers tend to peak in their early- to mid-30s.

Initial analytics research into this field proves this theory. A comprehensive statistical look produced these findings: Golfers tend to peak from 29-to-34 and only start experiencing any significant decline around age 38. So, according to this information, maybe he’s already wasted some of his best years, but Garcia is afforded a few more seasons at or near his peak before his play is expected to drop off.

This graph is only a generality of the whole membership though. While the general aging curve suggests a sizable and consistent improvement for a player throughout his 20s and a holding pattern in the early part of his 30s, Garcia’s line of progress would be far different.

The Spaniard was already one of the world’s best players by 21, and largely remained there through age 28. Instead of a steadying rise in the 20s then, Garcia’s chart would show a rather flat line. And while the general professional golfer continues to improve (at a lesser rate) from 29-to-30, Garcia’s graph would see a significant dip. We’re already talking an extraordinarily different path from the norm.

What does this mean for Garcia’s future for winning majors though?

Well, instead of “the few great years left, then rapid decline” theory, I’d pose that Garcia not only retains his top-notch play for several years, but also produces better golf than he ever has.

The two biggest knocks against Sergio have been his poor mental game and his putting. On the first point, there is no shortage of articles detailing the stunning transformation of Garcia from insolent sap to enlightened optimist.

Some are skeptical of the truth behind these claims, and they are probably correct to question. With Garcia, the emotional tornado is never far below the surface, and we are only a year removed from the fried chicken firestorm.

Still, he’s no longer the guy prone to conspiracy theories involving unfair USGA-Tiger Woods cooperation or the wrath of the golf gods. There is some truth to the more peaceful existence Garcia feels in competition. The mental game is stronger than it used to be, even if the Sunday results haven’t bared that out yet.

As for putting, the improvement there is staggering. Garcia only once placed among the top 100 in strokes gained putting prior to 2012, but in his past three seasons shows up 26th, 8th and 15th. As GolfWRX’s own Rich Hunt noted in 2013, the trend was met by a decline Garcia’s tee-to-green play.

In his 2014 campaign though, Garcia has recovered his elite ball-striking ability, especially on approaches. He’s currently 4th in GIR and 9th in Proximity to the Hole, a combination that maybe nobody on the PGA Tour can beat.

What this all means is that Garcia has minimized or mastered his weaknesses, and never truly lost his strengths; they were just lying dormant. In essence, the Spaniard possesses more tools in his arsenal than ever and is in no danger of losing them. That puts him right in line to bring his game to a new peak, a peak that is unlikely not to yield a major championship.

The biggest reason for a Garcia major title though may have nothing to do with how good a golfer he is. The Spaniard is simply due for a turnaround in luck.

As much as we hem and haw about the massive difference between first and second place in major championships, many times the truth is somewhere in between. Ernie Els’ performance at the 2012 Open Championship was far from masterful, but he was holding the Claret Jug in the end. Meanwhile, Chris DiMarco produced a stunning 12-under total on a tough Augusta National track in 2005 and whipped the field by seven shots…except for Tiger Woods, who he lost to in a playoff.

Unfortunately for Garcia, his luck in major championships has always fallen on the DiMarco side of affairs. It’s long been posited that the Spaniard simply doesn’t have it in him to produce a major-title-worthy performance. He has runner-up-esque stuff, just not 72 holes of golf fit for a major winner.

Except that’s a complete myth. Three times Garcia nailed together major-winning title material only to be struck down by extraordinary performances or a stroke of poor luck. There was the infamous 2007 Open Championship where Garcia bemoaned the golf gods’ wrath against his major championship aspirations.

While more petulant than realistic, Garcia had a legitimate gripe–at least one on stroke. The fact is, he had an 8-footer to win the tournament, hit a good putt and it didn’t drop. Actually, despite not taking the correct break, the putt still caught easily enough lip to fall in (like this), but refused to cooperate.

The next year, Garcia began the final round of the PGA Championship three off the lead, shot a magnificent 68 on a brutal Oakland Hills layout but couldn’t close the gap to victory. What happened? Padraig Harrington put up a miraculous 66, holing ridiculous putt after ridiculous putt after ridiculous putt to crush his rival’s spirit. If Harrington doesn’t play out of his mind, Garcia likely holds a multiple shot lead heading into the closing holes while executing extremely good golf. He probably wins.

Finally we look back to last month. Maybe Royal Liverpool isn’t the toughest layout on the Open rota, but when the rough is up as it was in 2014, certainly 15-under is a solid winning score. Want proof? By all accounts, Rory McIlroy needed an incredible performance to shoot 17-under, just two better than the score indicated. Garcia of course managed that 15-under number, including a final-round 66, but did so the same week of McIlroy’s maestro showing.

All of this is to say that Garcia is more than capable of a major-title worthy display. He has done so three times with no trophies to show for it! Just because Garcia has experienced so much misfortune doesn’t mean he is due a gift win of the Els ilk. But if his luck is simply neutral, his fourth instance of trophy-caliber play will finally net him that elusive major crown.

Alan Shipnuck is one of the best golf writers on the planet, but I found a statement he made some weeks ago alarmingly off base. In Golf.com’s PGA Tour Confidential, he stated that the Open “felt a little bit like Sergio’s last stand.”

Hardly. It seemed more like a first stand of many in the coming years.

Garcia has years of consistently good form under his belt, appears poised for a career apex in subsequent campaigns and is bound to produce a victorious major performance that isn’t hijacked by some outside force.

Yes, McIlroy is in Garcia’s way, but the streaky Northern Irishman is only going to show up at a select few majors.

If you’ve already given up on Garcia, I would come back around. In 2012, Garcia himself (erroneously) agreed with you. Two years later, he is shooting 15-under at a major and is No. 3 in the world.

It could happen by this Sunday night, it may take another three years. Either way Garcia’s triumph will happen. And the only hole in his resume will be filled.